I'm not a fan of abstraction: 'the map is not the territory' and abstractions are only useful to the extent that they do a good job of including what is relevant and excluding what is not. I much prefer looking for analogies across different domains of knowledge though creating an adequate data set takes many years of reading and study. From what little of Sowell's writings I have read he strikes as more practical and less dependent on abstractions.
Re: Capitalism: Warren Buffet has focused his investments in companies that have barriers ("moats") to competition. Everywhere one looks, corporations focus on reducing, even avoiding, competition.
Enjoyed this discussion. Good to be reminded that there are a lot of people much smarter than myself. Appreciate people like Glenn and some guests who are not rigidly left or right, liberal or conservative. Bought Sowells’s book “race and economics” a while ago but never read it. Maybe time to dust it off. Walter E Williams filling in for Rush Limbaugh. Ouch!!!
Emily Skarbek fears that Trump is destroying our institutions. I would argue that they are destroying themselves. They really started to nosedive after 2016.
Thomas Sowell argues argues that Black single- motherhood, a part of “Black culture” is responsible for Black economic woes. David Brady argues that if Black singe-motherhood went to zero, the rate of poverty in the Black community would not change.
Many claim a high prevalence of single motherhood plays a significant role in America's high child poverty. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, we compare the “prevalences and penalties” for child poverty across 30 rich democracies and within the United States over time (1979–2019). Several descriptive patterns contradict the importance of single motherhood. The U.S. prevalence of single motherhood is cross-nationally moderate and typical and is historically stable. Also, child poverty and the prevalence of single motherhood have trended in opposite directions in recent decades in the United States. More important than the prevalence of single motherhood, the United States stands out for having the highest penalty across 30 rich democracies. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that reducing single motherhood would not substantially reduce child poverty. Even if there was zero single motherhood, (1) the United States would not change from having the fourth-highest child poverty rate, (2) the 41-year trend in child poverty would be very similar, and (3) the extreme racial inequalities in child poverty would not decline. Rather than the prevalence of single motherhood, the high penalty for single motherhood and extremely high Black and Latino child poverty rates, which exist regardless of single motherhood, are far more important to America's high child poverty.
Census Bureau data refutes the idea that there's no connection between family structures and poverty rates. Here's a link for "Poverty in the United States: 2023:"
Table A-2 shows the following poverty rates for "primary families" by family structure:
Married couple - 4.6%
Female householder, no spouse present - 21.8%
Male householder, no spouse present - 11.4%
The numbers are much worse if you focus on families headed by female householders, no spouse present, with young children. It's 45.4% for households with related children under the age of six.
America has the highest percentage of children living in households headed by single parents of any country in the world according to Pew Research:
Family structures impact economic outcomes, including poverty rates. Melissa Kearney's book, "The Two-Parent Privilege" covers this in detail.
I wasn't able to access the paper you referenced, only the Abstract. Brady's point seems to be that countries decide how much poverty and inequality they have through their social policies according to a Washington Post article referenced on this page. :
These ideas have not gained traction. Decide for yourself if they're credible. Either way, the connection between single-parent households and poverty is undeniable.
The cultural argument has been challenged on the grounds that there was no crime surge after the 1st Great migration. It took 20 years after the 2nd Great Migration for the crime surge. The crime surge coincided with an increase in unemployment.
There's a long conversation that can be had about culture. Sowell, for example, wrote a book titled, "Race and Culture: A World View." Here's a synopsis of the book from Good Reads:
"Encompassing more than a decade of research around the globe, this book shows that cultural capital has far more impact than politics, prejudice, or genetics on the social and economic fates of minorities, nations, and civilization."
I'll leave it to others to debate the quality of Sowell's work, especially when it comes to minorities. There are a couple of things we know that apply to America as a whole, however:
1. The percentage of America's children living with single parents has grown sharply since 1950. Here's a link to a Census Bureau graphic and data series:
There are heated arguments about why the numbers grew. Some make an economic argument. They say the pool of men that women would want to marry shrank as the economic prospects of blue collar men weakened. Some make a cultural argument. They say society became more accepting of having children outside of marriage and this is why more children are living with single parents. The "truth," to the extent that we understand it, is probably somewhere between these two competing narratives.
2. The Success Sequence (graduating at least high school, getting a full time job, deferring child bearing until married) greatly reduces the odds of falling into poverty:
I always appreciate you taking time and effort responding to my posts. I view the data and see a steady decline in Black poverty. This is despite persisting single-parenthood. My question would be what is happening in Black culture explains the decreased poverty.
I note in the past rap battles involved guns. The biggest, most recent rap battle was between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. The battle was completely lyrical. No weapons were fired. Drake was demolished. There is a recent decline in Black homicides in many urban areas. There could be a cultural change happening that is not being acknowledged.
Dr Loury has a post referencing an article by Robert Cherry suggesting the solution to crime is longer jail/prison time. I’m wondering if this is necessary if violent crime is decreasing. Shouldn’t there be an investigation of what, if anything, is happening in Black culture to explain decreased overall poverty and violent crime?
1. Poverty rates in America have been falling for a long time. Others understand these trends better than me, but social policies, extended periods of economic growth, and a growing share of women in the workplace seem to be contributing factors.
2. Nobody can say with certainty why crime rates spiked after the pandemic began or why they've fallen recently. Ivan Bates, Baltimore's State's Attorney, attributes the drop in his city to several factors in this 10 minute interview with Fox Baltimore:
Among other things, he says that five to six thousand people account for most of the violent crimes in Baltimore. He says they've managed to get about two thousand of these folks off the streets and this helps explain why Baltimore's homicide numbers have fallen sharply. He also gives credit to the efforts of the mayor's office and the police department.
There's a move towards "accountability" for young offenders in Maryland and other places. This is consistent with the main idea from Robert Cherry's essay. There's also a question of justice for crime victims. Allowing people to commit crimes without consequences is a bad idea.
Jeff Asher's Substack page is a good place to start if you want to gain a better understanding of crime trends:
Again thanks for responding. The problem I see with Robert Cherry’s suggestion of longer incarceration is that it may repeat the problem seen with the 1994 crime bill that took men out of the Black community.
Glenn: it would be AMAZING for you to get Dr. Sowell on your podcast. He is truly an American legend. I have read a number of his books……and every one of them has instances where his written words make me laugh out loud because they make so much damn sense! I don’t know how he does it…….but he comes up with the most brilliant one-or-two sentence incredibly simple rebuttals to SO many arguments. He has never ceased to amaze me!
I am really looking forward to listening to this, I am a huge Thomas Sowell fan. I think the President should give him the presidential medal of freedom.
I'm not a fan of abstraction: 'the map is not the territory' and abstractions are only useful to the extent that they do a good job of including what is relevant and excluding what is not. I much prefer looking for analogies across different domains of knowledge though creating an adequate data set takes many years of reading and study. From what little of Sowell's writings I have read he strikes as more practical and less dependent on abstractions.
Re: Capitalism: Warren Buffet has focused his investments in companies that have barriers ("moats") to competition. Everywhere one looks, corporations focus on reducing, even avoiding, competition.
Enjoyed this discussion. Good to be reminded that there are a lot of people much smarter than myself. Appreciate people like Glenn and some guests who are not rigidly left or right, liberal or conservative. Bought Sowells’s book “race and economics” a while ago but never read it. Maybe time to dust it off. Walter E Williams filling in for Rush Limbaugh. Ouch!!!
Hey Glenn ... Happy Birthday tomorrow! Always enjoy your shows and perspectives.
Emily Skarbek fears that Trump is destroying our institutions. I would argue that they are destroying themselves. They really started to nosedive after 2016.
Thomas Sowell argues argues that Black single- motherhood, a part of “Black culture” is responsible for Black economic woes. David Brady argues that if Black singe-motherhood went to zero, the rate of poverty in the Black community would not change.
Many claim a high prevalence of single motherhood plays a significant role in America's high child poverty. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, we compare the “prevalences and penalties” for child poverty across 30 rich democracies and within the United States over time (1979–2019). Several descriptive patterns contradict the importance of single motherhood. The U.S. prevalence of single motherhood is cross-nationally moderate and typical and is historically stable. Also, child poverty and the prevalence of single motherhood have trended in opposite directions in recent decades in the United States. More important than the prevalence of single motherhood, the United States stands out for having the highest penalty across 30 rich democracies. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that reducing single motherhood would not substantially reduce child poverty. Even if there was zero single motherhood, (1) the United States would not change from having the fourth-highest child poverty rate, (2) the 41-year trend in child poverty would be very similar, and (3) the extreme racial inequalities in child poverty would not decline. Rather than the prevalence of single motherhood, the high penalty for single motherhood and extremely high Black and Latino child poverty rates, which exist regardless of single motherhood, are far more important to America's high child poverty.
https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-abstract/61/4/1161/389798/The-Role-of-Single-Motherhood-in-America-s-High?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Thanks
Census Bureau data refutes the idea that there's no connection between family structures and poverty rates. Here's a link for "Poverty in the United States: 2023:"
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-283.html
Table A-2 shows the following poverty rates for "primary families" by family structure:
Married couple - 4.6%
Female householder, no spouse present - 21.8%
Male householder, no spouse present - 11.4%
The numbers are much worse if you focus on families headed by female householders, no spouse present, with young children. It's 45.4% for households with related children under the age of six.
America has the highest percentage of children living in households headed by single parents of any country in the world according to Pew Research:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/12/12/u-s-children-more-likely-than-children-in-other-countries-to-live-with-just-one-parent/
Family structures impact economic outcomes, including poverty rates. Melissa Kearney's book, "The Two-Parent Privilege" covers this in detail.
I wasn't able to access the paper you referenced, only the Abstract. Brady's point seems to be that countries decide how much poverty and inequality they have through their social policies according to a Washington Post article referenced on this page. :
https://priceschool.usc.edu/faculty/directory/david-brady/
Other progressives, including Matthew Desmond of Princeton, make similar arguments:
https://endpovertyusa.org/
https://matthewdesmondbooks.com/
These ideas have not gained traction. Decide for yourself if they're credible. Either way, the connection between single-parent households and poverty is undeniable.
I’m not an economist by any means. I’ve seen Sowell argue the lower poverty rate of Black married couples. Black poverty remains higher.
Black couples
https://www.statista.com/statistics/205097/percentage-of-poor-black-married-couple-families-in-the-us/
White couples
https://www.statista.com/statistics/205033/percentage-of-poor-white-married-couple-families-in-the-us/
The cultural argument has been challenged on the grounds that there was no crime surge after the 1st Great migration. It took 20 years after the 2nd Great Migration for the crime surge. The crime surge coincided with an increase in unemployment.
https://dawsonvosburg.medium.com/whats-wrong-with-thomas-sowell-464baab5978e
There's a long conversation that can be had about culture. Sowell, for example, wrote a book titled, "Race and Culture: A World View." Here's a synopsis of the book from Good Reads:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/265091.Race_And_Culture
"Encompassing more than a decade of research around the globe, this book shows that cultural capital has far more impact than politics, prejudice, or genetics on the social and economic fates of minorities, nations, and civilization."
I'll leave it to others to debate the quality of Sowell's work, especially when it comes to minorities. There are a couple of things we know that apply to America as a whole, however:
1. The percentage of America's children living with single parents has grown sharply since 1950. Here's a link to a Census Bureau graphic and data series:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/single-parent-day.html
There are heated arguments about why the numbers grew. Some make an economic argument. They say the pool of men that women would want to marry shrank as the economic prospects of blue collar men weakened. Some make a cultural argument. They say society became more accepting of having children outside of marriage and this is why more children are living with single parents. The "truth," to the extent that we understand it, is probably somewhere between these two competing narratives.
2. The Success Sequence (graduating at least high school, getting a full time job, deferring child bearing until married) greatly reduces the odds of falling into poverty:
https://ifstudies.org/success-sequence
It helps explain why the poverty rates for black and white married families you referenced are reasonably similar.
The economic challenges associated with single parenting help explain why I'm starting to hear phrases like, "Marry before you carry" on social media.
I always appreciate you taking time and effort responding to my posts. I view the data and see a steady decline in Black poverty. This is despite persisting single-parenthood. My question would be what is happening in Black culture explains the decreased poverty.
I note in the past rap battles involved guns. The biggest, most recent rap battle was between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. The battle was completely lyrical. No weapons were fired. Drake was demolished. There is a recent decline in Black homicides in many urban areas. There could be a cultural change happening that is not being acknowledged.
Dr Loury has a post referencing an article by Robert Cherry suggesting the solution to crime is longer jail/prison time. I’m wondering if this is necessary if violent crime is decreasing. Shouldn’t there be an investigation of what, if anything, is happening in Black culture to explain decreased overall poverty and violent crime?
A couple of quick responses:
1. Poverty rates in America have been falling for a long time. Others understand these trends better than me, but social policies, extended periods of economic growth, and a growing share of women in the workplace seem to be contributing factors.
2. Nobody can say with certainty why crime rates spiked after the pandemic began or why they've fallen recently. Ivan Bates, Baltimore's State's Attorney, attributes the drop in his city to several factors in this 10 minute interview with Fox Baltimore:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTp4Khax9vE
Among other things, he says that five to six thousand people account for most of the violent crimes in Baltimore. He says they've managed to get about two thousand of these folks off the streets and this helps explain why Baltimore's homicide numbers have fallen sharply. He also gives credit to the efforts of the mayor's office and the police department.
There's a move towards "accountability" for young offenders in Maryland and other places. This is consistent with the main idea from Robert Cherry's essay. There's also a question of justice for crime victims. Allowing people to commit crimes without consequences is a bad idea.
Jeff Asher's Substack page is a good place to start if you want to gain a better understanding of crime trends:
https://jasher.substack.com/
He tends to call "balls and strikes" without allowing personal biases to color his analysis.
Again thanks for responding. The problem I see with Robert Cherry’s suggestion of longer incarceration is that it may repeat the problem seen with the 1994 crime bill that took men out of the Black community.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/3-ways-1994-crime-bill-continues-hurt-communities-color/
There has to be a better way.
The Black poverty rate is steadily declining. Black culture must be doing something right.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/black-poverty-rate.html
Sowell pointed out that problems have no have solutions only trade offs.
I seem to remember he isn’t a huge fan of the Fed either. I think that maybe blind faith in the word of the Fed could be more closely examined.
Glenn: it would be AMAZING for you to get Dr. Sowell on your podcast. He is truly an American legend. I have read a number of his books……and every one of them has instances where his written words make me laugh out loud because they make so much damn sense! I don’t know how he does it…….but he comes up with the most brilliant one-or-two sentence incredibly simple rebuttals to SO many arguments. He has never ceased to amaze me!
Yes, Glenn that would be one amazing and epic event! Have you ever considered it?
I am really looking forward to listening to this, I am a huge Thomas Sowell fan. I think the President should give him the presidential medal of freedom.
Yes! Great idea!