I think you may have that backwards; it may be that the physician who has access to a good AI no longer needs a PA to handle his workload.
From Vinay Prasad's comments on Sensible Medicine on this subject, he thinks that "cookie-cutter" medicine which is based on guidelines will be taken over by AI, but tougher cases requiring more individualized care will continue to be handled by highly trained specialists.
The point at which the AI is actually better than the specialist at that is the point at which virtually all human expertise in every discipline has been exceeded by AI. Which to be fair, may happen.
It’s hard to imagine when a patient will prefer a readout, no matter how accurate, over caring human intervention. When a medbot can “read” the expression, the look in the eyes, the subtle carry of the body, the furrow in the brow or set of the jaw, that will be the singularity and we can all go home and play golf.
Yes, the singularity is what I'm talking about. The range of abilities of a really good physician is broad and deep, so if that is beaten by an AI the number of human skills that AI couldn't exceed is likely minimal.
But I don't think it's hard to imagine at all. On the human side, we've learned to replace human interaction with screens in all sorts of other areas. Robot friends and robot girlfriends and boyfriends are already here. And really sick people are very motivated to find help, regardless of what form it takes.
You make it sound deceptively simple like the Eloi mindlessly going to the slaughter like cattle at the behest of our robot overlords.
During Covid I had to utilize Telemed and it was ridiculous explaining symptoms. Reminiscent of cultures where it was taboo to see or touch a woman so you had to use a doll and point to the area of concern.
Sex dolls and mechanical puppies are a poor substitute where the former speaks of psychological and social dysfunction and desperation.
Getting a diagnosis of a terminal condition is nothing you want delivered up by a disembodied voice or a printout or Turing manikin.
Of course I can’t predict the future (and of course people want to be cured at any cost)but I do know our species past evolutionary pathway and our deepest psychosocial “wiring”. When or if the company of AI becomes preferable to human contact the more profound singularity will not be with our AI buddies but with ourselves. And that is what I can’t realistically imagine - or don’t want to.
My position is predicated on exponential technological progress. I'm not saying it's simple. But bearing in mind here that I'm only a millennial in my 30's, I remember when the idea that you could talk to someone in another location without a landline was literally science fiction. The difference between a typewriter and a iPhone is mind-boggling. If AI progress comes that quickly, the computers will exceed us. I'm not a computer scientist, so I have no idea how this actually happens.
I also think you may be giving reality too much credit. Sex dolls might be a poor substitute for a knockout young person with class and intelligence, but they may well be a great substitute for one's actual dating market. Likewise, an AI that can't duplicate a top physician may easily be better than waiting for an hour to see a PA who basically just reads out clinical guidelines. AI will presumably replace the weak links of our society first.
I think you may have that backwards; it may be that the physician who has access to a good AI no longer needs a PA to handle his workload.
From Vinay Prasad's comments on Sensible Medicine on this subject, he thinks that "cookie-cutter" medicine which is based on guidelines will be taken over by AI, but tougher cases requiring more individualized care will continue to be handled by highly trained specialists.
The point at which the AI is actually better than the specialist at that is the point at which virtually all human expertise in every discipline has been exceeded by AI. Which to be fair, may happen.
It’s hard to imagine when a patient will prefer a readout, no matter how accurate, over caring human intervention. When a medbot can “read” the expression, the look in the eyes, the subtle carry of the body, the furrow in the brow or set of the jaw, that will be the singularity and we can all go home and play golf.
Yes, the singularity is what I'm talking about. The range of abilities of a really good physician is broad and deep, so if that is beaten by an AI the number of human skills that AI couldn't exceed is likely minimal.
But I don't think it's hard to imagine at all. On the human side, we've learned to replace human interaction with screens in all sorts of other areas. Robot friends and robot girlfriends and boyfriends are already here. And really sick people are very motivated to find help, regardless of what form it takes.
You make it sound deceptively simple like the Eloi mindlessly going to the slaughter like cattle at the behest of our robot overlords.
During Covid I had to utilize Telemed and it was ridiculous explaining symptoms. Reminiscent of cultures where it was taboo to see or touch a woman so you had to use a doll and point to the area of concern.
Sex dolls and mechanical puppies are a poor substitute where the former speaks of psychological and social dysfunction and desperation.
Getting a diagnosis of a terminal condition is nothing you want delivered up by a disembodied voice or a printout or Turing manikin.
Of course I can’t predict the future (and of course people want to be cured at any cost)but I do know our species past evolutionary pathway and our deepest psychosocial “wiring”. When or if the company of AI becomes preferable to human contact the more profound singularity will not be with our AI buddies but with ourselves. And that is what I can’t realistically imagine - or don’t want to.
My position is predicated on exponential technological progress. I'm not saying it's simple. But bearing in mind here that I'm only a millennial in my 30's, I remember when the idea that you could talk to someone in another location without a landline was literally science fiction. The difference between a typewriter and a iPhone is mind-boggling. If AI progress comes that quickly, the computers will exceed us. I'm not a computer scientist, so I have no idea how this actually happens.
I also think you may be giving reality too much credit. Sex dolls might be a poor substitute for a knockout young person with class and intelligence, but they may well be a great substitute for one's actual dating market. Likewise, an AI that can't duplicate a top physician may easily be better than waiting for an hour to see a PA who basically just reads out clinical guidelines. AI will presumably replace the weak links of our society first.