John, to your Trump immigrant point. You are outlining that Trump has a incredibly unique immigration outlook that that is unprecedented.
While it may be unique on the right, it is certainly not unique in politics. And, I think that is what you’re not including in your calculus.
The Biden admin for all intents and purposes is functioning as an open borders administration. That, for all your upset on Trumps end, is an equally unique and unprecedented stance on immigration. And, that is what you’re not adding to your calculation, what seemingly everyone on the left misses in every calculation on Trump is looking at the other party.
Most, meaning the enormous, enormous, enormous proportion of the population sits somewhere in the middle of these candidates. (Absolutely exploding the median voter theory of politics). Trump has his strong, idiotically structured, views on immigration, but, I think what most people get out of it is, “he realizes there are criminals in immigrants, he realizes there are potential economic issues (especially in regards to social programs which I don’t understand why it’s not mentioned more frequently), there are potential cultural issues”. When people look at the Biden stance I think they see, “oh, these people are utopians living in a fantasy land where immigrants are 100% good and there are no potential downsides to more”.
For most people in the middle, I believe they see Trump and almost entirely process it as “he sees there are potential issues, the other guy is in fantasy land. I’m going to go with the guy who is closer to reality even if I don’t agree with him”. And that’s it.
And to your crime point. I also don’t believe that immigrants commit more crime than citizens. However, immigrants aren’t citizens and we don’t have to accept that crime. You’re going to be way more forgiving with a family member and their actions than a stranger. Also, you’re stuck with the family member. You’re not stuck with the stranger. It is also not a made up point, as we just found out when 8 ISIS terrorists plotting a bombing were just arrested and found to have crossed into the country at the southern border.
On the cultural front, Strange Death of Europe was laughed at everywhere left of center. Now the issues described in the book are recurring and constant among the voters in each country. Little Mogadishu is not a laughable right wing fever dream anymore. But further, the foreigners protesting for terrorist organizations on our college campuses is not a laughable right wing fever dream anymore. Similar to above, I fully recognize we have a substantial home grown population of citizens that will fill this role; however, again it is not something we have to accept.
To the economic issues. I don’t think any data on employment or lowering wages is at all compelling or worthwhile. What I do think is compelling is housing immigrants, immigrant children flooding into already terribly under serviced education systems worsening the quality for the already disadvantaged students of society even more. The social programs for immigrants that are stressing welfare systems. Shelters that are full and cannot house homeless anymore. Etc.
Again, bad and worsening education systems, poor affordable housing, under funded and poorly structured social safety nets, poor services for the homeless, etc. all are issues we have already. Immigrants are certainly stressing them even more as I can see clear as day here in Chicago. Saying the opposite is to ask me not to believe my lying eyes.
To conclude, people (especially on the left) look at Trump in a bubble and go “look how insane this is”. The majority of people in the middle look at their two options and judge Biden policies to be even more insane, if his rhetoric is more appropriate. But, even on the rhetoric side, another example. Trump says disgusting shit, certainly. Biden fails to say anything at all that is coherent. I think people view those as pretty comparably insane options. Would you rather have a racist leader talking to foreign countries? Or, would you rather have a leader who cannot form a sentence and process information talking to foreign countries? 10 years ago I’d probably say the dullard idiot. Now with pretty major foreign conflicts popping up left and right, I’d maybe pick the racist who can think, hoping that he capable of holding his tongue over the dullard that just gets steamrolled by foreign countries guaranteeing we follow a terrible path.
Other comparisons I think people hold:
Trumps a racist vs Biden literally and unquestionably structures his administration by race. Is one really objectively worse than the other?
Trumps a liability with foreign policy vs Biden’s foreign policy by many centrists is considered potentially worst in U.S. history. Maybe only comparable to Woodrow Wilson.
Trump is divisive vs a Biden where I literally cannot comprehend how this is still a point against Trump. He actively hates half the country. He adds it to his speeches. Anyone who doesn’t agree with his political policies he routinely calls outright or implies otherwise are bigots or racists. The wealthy are parasites on society. The people who want cheap energy are idiots who don’t accept science. The people who have made their own judgement on their health are people who are okay killing their family and strangers. Etc etc etc. His rhetoric in any other era before Trump would be the most divisive rhetoric in US politics. You can say trump is to blame for that. But it still exists.
Trump lies vs Biden whose entire administration is one big lie. Inflation reduction act, temporary inflation, pull out from Afghanistan, Ukraine support, Israel support, goals of Hamas, racial divides in society on every level, Trump wrongdoing, Hunter wrongdoing, everything every opponent of theirs has said is outright lied about. Etc.
Trump doesn’t follow the rule of law vs Biden who openly violates the rule of law constantly.
People on the left especially still somehow see this as Trump vs Old Uncle Joe. This nice, although slow, nothing of a candidate. I don’t think the majority of people see that anymore. They see Trump, vs a mean, corrupt, vile, vindictive, dullard, liar of a career politician.
None of this is to excuse Trump. I have been saying until 2 weeks ago I could never vote for Trump. I hate the man and hope he careens off a cliff.
But, that is not the point. The point is people have to choose between two absolutely abysmal choices. And, yes the true MAGA crowd is nuts. But, people like Sam Harris (who I listen to frequently and like but has this similar blind spot in my mind) will say something like “half the country is part of a cult of personality”. The people voting for Trump in the main are not part of MAGA. The vast majority of them are not. And, to my mind, the people choosing to still vote for Trump are 10x more clearheaded between the choices than those voting for Biden. For 8 years on an hourly basis every single deficiency of Trump has been hammered into their skull from every direction and they’re still judging him as a better option than Biden. The people voting for Biden are still sticking to absurdities like he’s good on foreign policy, he has a good economy, and he’s still functioning and has always had a stutter. Literally EVERY person I hear trying to support such claims for Biden I put into the “MAGA” level extremely delusional camp but on the left. And that isn’t just MSNBC and like HuffPo. That is CNN, NYT, WSJ (news, until like a week ago), and WaPo.
I could be entirely mistaken. But, when I weigh the ledgers of what side has more extremely delusional voters, I fall on Biden has more. Again, not because Trump doesn’t have extremely delusional voters, but because the Biden voter seemingly is so focused on Trump they do not see any of their own sides gaping deficiencies.
I agree with much of what you say, but still can bring myself not to skip that part of the ballot or vote for Kennedy just cuz. I will probably wait until he declares a veep. If he's smart enough to choose a more moderate, strong person who's not afraid to try to challenge his more narcissistic tendencies I may pull that lever., though I doubt it as he doesn't pIay well with others. Remember how quickly his first cabinet disbanded. I cared more about Congress and Cabinet in past, but all this use of Presidential powers scare me. Looks like you are also a fan of Douglas Murray who is one of my faves. If only Trump could surround himself and play well with those with Murray's or Niall Ferguson's intellect and demeanor.
Nancy. I still do not know if I’ll vote for Trump. I might do exactly what you suggest, abstain or vote Kennedy (even though I don’t like him either). I mentioned it was the first time I could think of voting for him. I think the conviction of Trump IN THIS SPECIFIC CASE is worse for the country than Jan 6th. I have read and listened to everyone from Elie Honig (CNN legal expert), Ilya Somin (supports the conviction while also saying it will certainly fall under appeal because of all the legal problems), Andrew McCarthy (conservative who supported Trump impeachment), David French (Never Trump conservative), Sarah Isgur, Mark Zauderer, and many more from across the political spectrum. And, the safest read I have gotten from any is Somin who said “it certainly looks like a politically targeted conviction but that is very hard to prove legally”. Every other expert across the spectrum have basically conceded (more or less) it is a politically targeted conviction.
I hate Trump. Again, hope he careens off a cliff. Also think he deserves to be convicted in many of the cases against him. But THIS one? Are you serious? A completely novel legal theory in the jurisdiction, on a state level past the statute of limitations wrapped in a federal crime where they may not have jurisdiction, with jury instructions that 95% of laymen observe as blatantly unconstitutional, tied in a bow of contorted legalese binding each part of Frankensteins monster together. THAT is the basis for convicting your political opponent of a felony?
The Rubicon has been crossed. For me open legal targeting of political opponents is now firmly on the table as a tool to use (White House involvement or not doesn’t impact me at all). Which not only is at its first level a disaster of trying to jail opponents. At the second level is even a bigger disaster. Jail time or no jail time, Trump loses this election he can call “election interference” and be RIGHT. It will no longer be a delusion of the MAGA idiots. It will be a fact as clear as day. The political opponents of Trump convicted him of a felony in a bogus trial and impacted his election chances. What the hell else are you supposed to call that? And, the insane thing is I don’t know if it is better he is acquitted on appeal (admitting to the election interference) or convicted on appeal (confirming the use of the legal system as a political tool - this is not saying a conviction confirms the fraudulent nature of the court. It is stating the obvious fact that Bragg has prosecutorial discretion, and waited 7 years to bring charges, immediately in front of an election. Even if ruled LEGALLY sound, still undeniably being used as a political tool. Could have easily brought the case a year ago and allowed for a different candidate).
We are so unbelievably fucked in this upcoming election. And the greatest step in that fuckery has come from the left in their childish flailing against Trump. I cannot stomach that and the reason I can put Trump back on the table as a possibility is as a complete and utter “Fuck you!” to the left and Biden. You can’t campaign on “he’s going to destroy democracy!” as you attempt to jail your opponents. That is so incredibly egregious and this will be felt I think for generations. January 6th I think is already not a force to be wielded again. What? Crazy freaks did some horrible shit for a few hours, were stopped, one killed, and ton more put in jail after not accomplishing anything at all. Yes, a huge breaking of norms. Yes, very bad. What is the FUTURE strategy using from Jan 6th? The fact nothing was accomplished and a lot of people ruined their lives for no purpose?
Trump loses this election for any reason (could shit himself and face plant in his own feces on TV), and this becomes a tool for BOTH SIDES in every future election.
That is why Trump is on the table for me. Literally nothing else.
Can't agree more with your reasoning. Using the legal system on any level as a political tool is a great fear for me. It is most likely a pipe dream that Trump will have people in place who can appeal to his better angels and convince him not to go on a retaliatory rampage. Or if Biden wins, his cronies also do not see victory as a referendum to continue same or even use the legal system against the "anti-woke". For me, if I vote for him at all (A BIG IF) it would be for his fiscal policies vs Biden. So much more successful first time around. To me, if policies were based more on economics & fiscal soundness, much of the social issues could take care of themselves.
John, to your Trump immigrant point. You are outlining that Trump has a incredibly unique immigration outlook that that is unprecedented.
While it may be unique on the right, it is certainly not unique in politics. And, I think that is what you’re not including in your calculus.
The Biden admin for all intents and purposes is functioning as an open borders administration. That, for all your upset on Trumps end, is an equally unique and unprecedented stance on immigration. And, that is what you’re not adding to your calculation, what seemingly everyone on the left misses in every calculation on Trump is looking at the other party.
Most, meaning the enormous, enormous, enormous proportion of the population sits somewhere in the middle of these candidates. (Absolutely exploding the median voter theory of politics). Trump has his strong, idiotically structured, views on immigration, but, I think what most people get out of it is, “he realizes there are criminals in immigrants, he realizes there are potential economic issues (especially in regards to social programs which I don’t understand why it’s not mentioned more frequently), there are potential cultural issues”. When people look at the Biden stance I think they see, “oh, these people are utopians living in a fantasy land where immigrants are 100% good and there are no potential downsides to more”.
For most people in the middle, I believe they see Trump and almost entirely process it as “he sees there are potential issues, the other guy is in fantasy land. I’m going to go with the guy who is closer to reality even if I don’t agree with him”. And that’s it.
And to your crime point. I also don’t believe that immigrants commit more crime than citizens. However, immigrants aren’t citizens and we don’t have to accept that crime. You’re going to be way more forgiving with a family member and their actions than a stranger. Also, you’re stuck with the family member. You’re not stuck with the stranger. It is also not a made up point, as we just found out when 8 ISIS terrorists plotting a bombing were just arrested and found to have crossed into the country at the southern border.
On the cultural front, Strange Death of Europe was laughed at everywhere left of center. Now the issues described in the book are recurring and constant among the voters in each country. Little Mogadishu is not a laughable right wing fever dream anymore. But further, the foreigners protesting for terrorist organizations on our college campuses is not a laughable right wing fever dream anymore. Similar to above, I fully recognize we have a substantial home grown population of citizens that will fill this role; however, again it is not something we have to accept.
To the economic issues. I don’t think any data on employment or lowering wages is at all compelling or worthwhile. What I do think is compelling is housing immigrants, immigrant children flooding into already terribly under serviced education systems worsening the quality for the already disadvantaged students of society even more. The social programs for immigrants that are stressing welfare systems. Shelters that are full and cannot house homeless anymore. Etc.
Again, bad and worsening education systems, poor affordable housing, under funded and poorly structured social safety nets, poor services for the homeless, etc. all are issues we have already. Immigrants are certainly stressing them even more as I can see clear as day here in Chicago. Saying the opposite is to ask me not to believe my lying eyes.
To conclude, people (especially on the left) look at Trump in a bubble and go “look how insane this is”. The majority of people in the middle look at their two options and judge Biden policies to be even more insane, if his rhetoric is more appropriate. But, even on the rhetoric side, another example. Trump says disgusting shit, certainly. Biden fails to say anything at all that is coherent. I think people view those as pretty comparably insane options. Would you rather have a racist leader talking to foreign countries? Or, would you rather have a leader who cannot form a sentence and process information talking to foreign countries? 10 years ago I’d probably say the dullard idiot. Now with pretty major foreign conflicts popping up left and right, I’d maybe pick the racist who can think, hoping that he capable of holding his tongue over the dullard that just gets steamrolled by foreign countries guaranteeing we follow a terrible path.
Other comparisons I think people hold:
Trumps a racist vs Biden literally and unquestionably structures his administration by race. Is one really objectively worse than the other?
Trumps a liability with foreign policy vs Biden’s foreign policy by many centrists is considered potentially worst in U.S. history. Maybe only comparable to Woodrow Wilson.
Trump is divisive vs a Biden where I literally cannot comprehend how this is still a point against Trump. He actively hates half the country. He adds it to his speeches. Anyone who doesn’t agree with his political policies he routinely calls outright or implies otherwise are bigots or racists. The wealthy are parasites on society. The people who want cheap energy are idiots who don’t accept science. The people who have made their own judgement on their health are people who are okay killing their family and strangers. Etc etc etc. His rhetoric in any other era before Trump would be the most divisive rhetoric in US politics. You can say trump is to blame for that. But it still exists.
Trump lies vs Biden whose entire administration is one big lie. Inflation reduction act, temporary inflation, pull out from Afghanistan, Ukraine support, Israel support, goals of Hamas, racial divides in society on every level, Trump wrongdoing, Hunter wrongdoing, everything every opponent of theirs has said is outright lied about. Etc.
Trump doesn’t follow the rule of law vs Biden who openly violates the rule of law constantly.
People on the left especially still somehow see this as Trump vs Old Uncle Joe. This nice, although slow, nothing of a candidate. I don’t think the majority of people see that anymore. They see Trump, vs a mean, corrupt, vile, vindictive, dullard, liar of a career politician.
None of this is to excuse Trump. I have been saying until 2 weeks ago I could never vote for Trump. I hate the man and hope he careens off a cliff.
But, that is not the point. The point is people have to choose between two absolutely abysmal choices. And, yes the true MAGA crowd is nuts. But, people like Sam Harris (who I listen to frequently and like but has this similar blind spot in my mind) will say something like “half the country is part of a cult of personality”. The people voting for Trump in the main are not part of MAGA. The vast majority of them are not. And, to my mind, the people choosing to still vote for Trump are 10x more clearheaded between the choices than those voting for Biden. For 8 years on an hourly basis every single deficiency of Trump has been hammered into their skull from every direction and they’re still judging him as a better option than Biden. The people voting for Biden are still sticking to absurdities like he’s good on foreign policy, he has a good economy, and he’s still functioning and has always had a stutter. Literally EVERY person I hear trying to support such claims for Biden I put into the “MAGA” level extremely delusional camp but on the left. And that isn’t just MSNBC and like HuffPo. That is CNN, NYT, WSJ (news, until like a week ago), and WaPo.
I could be entirely mistaken. But, when I weigh the ledgers of what side has more extremely delusional voters, I fall on Biden has more. Again, not because Trump doesn’t have extremely delusional voters, but because the Biden voter seemingly is so focused on Trump they do not see any of their own sides gaping deficiencies.
Thank you, Tyler, for speaking the Truth for MANY people!
I agree with much of what you say, but still can bring myself not to skip that part of the ballot or vote for Kennedy just cuz. I will probably wait until he declares a veep. If he's smart enough to choose a more moderate, strong person who's not afraid to try to challenge his more narcissistic tendencies I may pull that lever., though I doubt it as he doesn't pIay well with others. Remember how quickly his first cabinet disbanded. I cared more about Congress and Cabinet in past, but all this use of Presidential powers scare me. Looks like you are also a fan of Douglas Murray who is one of my faves. If only Trump could surround himself and play well with those with Murray's or Niall Ferguson's intellect and demeanor.
Well said, Nancy.
Nancy. I still do not know if I’ll vote for Trump. I might do exactly what you suggest, abstain or vote Kennedy (even though I don’t like him either). I mentioned it was the first time I could think of voting for him. I think the conviction of Trump IN THIS SPECIFIC CASE is worse for the country than Jan 6th. I have read and listened to everyone from Elie Honig (CNN legal expert), Ilya Somin (supports the conviction while also saying it will certainly fall under appeal because of all the legal problems), Andrew McCarthy (conservative who supported Trump impeachment), David French (Never Trump conservative), Sarah Isgur, Mark Zauderer, and many more from across the political spectrum. And, the safest read I have gotten from any is Somin who said “it certainly looks like a politically targeted conviction but that is very hard to prove legally”. Every other expert across the spectrum have basically conceded (more or less) it is a politically targeted conviction.
I hate Trump. Again, hope he careens off a cliff. Also think he deserves to be convicted in many of the cases against him. But THIS one? Are you serious? A completely novel legal theory in the jurisdiction, on a state level past the statute of limitations wrapped in a federal crime where they may not have jurisdiction, with jury instructions that 95% of laymen observe as blatantly unconstitutional, tied in a bow of contorted legalese binding each part of Frankensteins monster together. THAT is the basis for convicting your political opponent of a felony?
The Rubicon has been crossed. For me open legal targeting of political opponents is now firmly on the table as a tool to use (White House involvement or not doesn’t impact me at all). Which not only is at its first level a disaster of trying to jail opponents. At the second level is even a bigger disaster. Jail time or no jail time, Trump loses this election he can call “election interference” and be RIGHT. It will no longer be a delusion of the MAGA idiots. It will be a fact as clear as day. The political opponents of Trump convicted him of a felony in a bogus trial and impacted his election chances. What the hell else are you supposed to call that? And, the insane thing is I don’t know if it is better he is acquitted on appeal (admitting to the election interference) or convicted on appeal (confirming the use of the legal system as a political tool - this is not saying a conviction confirms the fraudulent nature of the court. It is stating the obvious fact that Bragg has prosecutorial discretion, and waited 7 years to bring charges, immediately in front of an election. Even if ruled LEGALLY sound, still undeniably being used as a political tool. Could have easily brought the case a year ago and allowed for a different candidate).
We are so unbelievably fucked in this upcoming election. And the greatest step in that fuckery has come from the left in their childish flailing against Trump. I cannot stomach that and the reason I can put Trump back on the table as a possibility is as a complete and utter “Fuck you!” to the left and Biden. You can’t campaign on “he’s going to destroy democracy!” as you attempt to jail your opponents. That is so incredibly egregious and this will be felt I think for generations. January 6th I think is already not a force to be wielded again. What? Crazy freaks did some horrible shit for a few hours, were stopped, one killed, and ton more put in jail after not accomplishing anything at all. Yes, a huge breaking of norms. Yes, very bad. What is the FUTURE strategy using from Jan 6th? The fact nothing was accomplished and a lot of people ruined their lives for no purpose?
Trump loses this election for any reason (could shit himself and face plant in his own feces on TV), and this becomes a tool for BOTH SIDES in every future election.
That is why Trump is on the table for me. Literally nothing else.
Can't agree more with your reasoning. Using the legal system on any level as a political tool is a great fear for me. It is most likely a pipe dream that Trump will have people in place who can appeal to his better angels and convince him not to go on a retaliatory rampage. Or if Biden wins, his cronies also do not see victory as a referendum to continue same or even use the legal system against the "anti-woke". For me, if I vote for him at all (A BIG IF) it would be for his fiscal policies vs Biden. So much more successful first time around. To me, if policies were based more on economics & fiscal soundness, much of the social issues could take care of themselves.