When RG took office (1994) there were 2016 murders in NYC. Every year previous in that decade had seen several hundred more. When he stepped down in 2001 there were 960. Seven years before he took office there were 2016 (same as when he took office). Seven years before that there were 2228. I don't know about other crimes, but the worst of crimes, murder, was not dropping before RG.
You are cherry picking (we all do) and you did not respond to my data concerning the years before, during, and after RG's term in office. You have chosen a few years that work well for you. I could do the same. From 2008 - 2013 unemployment rates in NYC were as "low" as 6.7 percent and as high as 9.9 percent, with three of those years at 8.5 percent or higher. These rates are significantly higher than anything in the previous decade plus or anything in the years since. And yet homicide rates fell from 2008 - 2013. Furthermore, moving to national figures, one might expect, based on your reasoning, that homicide rates. would have reached their high in the 20th century during the years of the great depression. But they didn't. The homicide rates in the "boom years" of the 1950s following WWII were significantly higher than in the 1930s.
I have to run and don't have time now to look at the article you cited from NBER, but I don't have a big problem with it's upshot as you quoted it. From my own reading I would lean toward deterrence as having the greater impact, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it.
I have seen Levitt's work in Freakonomics, but would note that he also gives significant weight to added police and higher incarceration rates. Of course, all the data on abortion only makes sense if one doesn't think of the killing of an unborn child as a homicide in its own right (except in exceptional cases).
Will have to get back to you tomorrow at the earliest about the Brookings study. All the best.
I could be crazy, but it almost seems that each time we increase the "safety net" and "nanny state" and weaken the work/school requirements the worse things get. I'm not a stats person, but has anyone ever written about this beside Thomas Sowell, et al.?
No, I don't think you're crazy. It's just that things like that are very difficult to prove... to the extent that anything can be "proven" in the social sciences. As you can see from what I wrote, it's very difficult to prove that economic well-being, at least as measured by unemployment, is hard to correlate with homicide rates. I think there's a case to be made for what you say. And in Sowell you've found a good place to start! You might want to check out Jason Riley and the late Walter Williams as well. Good luck to you! One counter argument you will have to deal with is why haven't the nanny states in Europe seen rises in crime as well. Of course, those homogenous nations are hard to compare to the much more diverse U.S. I happen to think that diversity is a good thing, but I don't think there is much dispute that it does create problems.
Thanks for the suggestions. I’ll check them out. Am near the end of “Closing of the American Mind “” and he’s discussing the rise of the social sciences vs ‘natural’ which your comment made me think of. More philosophy than I can handle but I’m ploughing thru. I know what you mean by the European nannies, but if you've noticed they are running into problems with the influx of immigrants from the Middle East & Africa who aren't willing to assimilate to an Anglo-Protestant ethic. Yeah, the one that's "systemically racist".
When RG took office (1994) there were 2016 murders in NYC. Every year previous in that decade had seen several hundred more. When he stepped down in 2001 there were 960. Seven years before he took office there were 2016 (same as when he took office). Seven years before that there were 2228. I don't know about other crimes, but the worst of crimes, murder, was not dropping before RG.
As for blaming crime on poverty, you might consider the following from the Brookings Institute: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/income-growth-and-income-inequality-the-facts-may-surprise-you/
You are cherry picking (we all do) and you did not respond to my data concerning the years before, during, and after RG's term in office. You have chosen a few years that work well for you. I could do the same. From 2008 - 2013 unemployment rates in NYC were as "low" as 6.7 percent and as high as 9.9 percent, with three of those years at 8.5 percent or higher. These rates are significantly higher than anything in the previous decade plus or anything in the years since. And yet homicide rates fell from 2008 - 2013. Furthermore, moving to national figures, one might expect, based on your reasoning, that homicide rates. would have reached their high in the 20th century during the years of the great depression. But they didn't. The homicide rates in the "boom years" of the 1950s following WWII were significantly higher than in the 1930s.
I have to run and don't have time now to look at the article you cited from NBER, but I don't have a big problem with it's upshot as you quoted it. From my own reading I would lean toward deterrence as having the greater impact, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it.
I have seen Levitt's work in Freakonomics, but would note that he also gives significant weight to added police and higher incarceration rates. Of course, all the data on abortion only makes sense if one doesn't think of the killing of an unborn child as a homicide in its own right (except in exceptional cases).
Will have to get back to you tomorrow at the earliest about the Brookings study. All the best.
I could be crazy, but it almost seems that each time we increase the "safety net" and "nanny state" and weaken the work/school requirements the worse things get. I'm not a stats person, but has anyone ever written about this beside Thomas Sowell, et al.?
No, I don't think you're crazy. It's just that things like that are very difficult to prove... to the extent that anything can be "proven" in the social sciences. As you can see from what I wrote, it's very difficult to prove that economic well-being, at least as measured by unemployment, is hard to correlate with homicide rates. I think there's a case to be made for what you say. And in Sowell you've found a good place to start! You might want to check out Jason Riley and the late Walter Williams as well. Good luck to you! One counter argument you will have to deal with is why haven't the nanny states in Europe seen rises in crime as well. Of course, those homogenous nations are hard to compare to the much more diverse U.S. I happen to think that diversity is a good thing, but I don't think there is much dispute that it does create problems.
Thanks for the suggestions. I’ll check them out. Am near the end of “Closing of the American Mind “” and he’s discussing the rise of the social sciences vs ‘natural’ which your comment made me think of. More philosophy than I can handle but I’m ploughing thru. I know what you mean by the European nannies, but if you've noticed they are running into problems with the influx of immigrants from the Middle East & Africa who aren't willing to assimilate to an Anglo-Protestant ethic. Yeah, the one that's "systemically racist".