Thanks for taking the time to do some research and respond so quickly. As noted much of the data in the first article is old. With the increased emphasis on identity and population increases over the last few decades, I wonder if the map would look different. Here in the US, I can't remember when the census started breaking down the race/ethnicity questions into more categories. I understand why people migrate, but my question was more from the other side. How are the people in these social democracies responding to the new immigrants & refugees? Are they impacting the "safety net" negatively/positively(getting jobs & paying taxes)/not at all? I have heard anecdotally that some of the European countries require some work and will find people jobs, but not sure how that works or if really does. Can't imagine would here. AI will impact some jobs, esp. non-skilled & semi-skilled, but I assume will create others. To some extent so will climate change along with different livable areas. (Still have Shellenberger's book to read.) My other question for those proponents of the "Scandinavian" model is if it's so great why don't you try living there? (can read with sarcasm)
Your welcome. Easy if one is retired. I have not read up on how people are responding to the migrations in Europe in depth. Just off the top of my head from my reading not too well in most countries to awful in a couple like Poland and especially Hungary. Germany has been the best at accepting them since they realize they need them. That said Germany has had an alarming increase in hard-right parties being supported by the voters. Here is a good article on the issue https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-09-23/countries-less-accepting-of-migrants-study-finds I do think that the nature of human beings who are so tribal that the knee-jerk reaction is to reject people not "like me" and these migrants won't be "like me". The whole AI impact is well fleshed out with numbers here: https://techjury.net/blog/jobs-lost-to-automation-statistics/#gref From my reading I think they are a bit optimistic that it won't impact professionals much. AI already reads X-rays and MRIs better than a human radiologist MD. Attorneys are being replaced by AI as well and have been for 5 or 10 years by AI. My B.A. degreed computer scientist nephew who made well into the six figures in a job says he is already retraining in more specialized areas since he can see AI will be writing the code that he is writing these days very soon. Additionally, per the article, while there will be new jobs created from AI they will be for educated people who can re-train into them. As for the piece read with sarcasm on why don't you try living there. In my reading, the younger crowd are very much predisposed to like socialism see here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/268766/socialism-popular-capitalism-among-young-adults.aspx I doubt these numbers have gone anywhere but up since the pandemic. Thus in the long run as the older generations exit the scene the long-term trend favors socialist approaches over capitalistic ones it seems. I of course don't have a dog in the hunt as I won't be here for the situation unless reincarnation is what is next. I just figure it is not going to be pretty. You might want to look at this article: Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?
Again thanx for all your time. I haven't had time to read the articles and probably won't til tomorrow or Thursday. Didn't want you to think I was ignoring you.
Awwww kind of you to be thinking of me. I am fine. It is fun for me to investigate these things for my own education. Just the joy of learning for the sake of learning. I have a bit of the academic in me. Then if others benefit from my efforts when I post the info so much the better. If you don't have an interest then, no worries, you can just move on and I won't be offended. I did not have time for this type of research and posting when I was working etc. either.
Hi again. So much to unpack here so I will try to keep as brief as possible ( Am also a slow typist.)
1.) I believe that the Scandinavian countries attitudes toward "socialism" stems from a long history of isolation & insulation. For millennia these areas were sparsely populated, dominated by hunter/fishing/gathering peoples living communally until the glaciers retreated enough to farm. Agriculture settles people, populations grow and groups become more social-centered (centrally governed by strong leaders, then anointed kings). I'm not sure they ever really embraced mercantilism then capitalism as in other parts of Europe. They had very little contact with significantly different peoples as they had nothing most invaders would want or land too cold to conquer. They did some raiding, but took very little culture back with them. The more "civilized" like the Greeks & Romans had no influence and Christianity came very late and was probably quite watered down versions incorporating a lot of their traditions. I think it made them more open to Protestantism. The Low Countries also were not part of the Roman Empire and more influenced by Germanic cultures. Very similar Christianization. Eastern Europe on the other hand was frequently invaded, conquered and divided up by various peoples, some of whom stayed, and better climate. Christianity came to them in a more orthodox way. Most of north-eastern Europe had almost little to no contact with any Semitic, Muslim or African Black groups.
2.) If the stat on AI & jobs are true, then shouldn't government and private business be spending more time, energy and resources on education, training ang retraining than identities, diversity and multi-culturism? Identity Studies will not ready someone those job as STEM studies will.
3.) I am usually very skeptical of polls. Who did they survey? Where in the country? What work experience do they have? Were they in college (where), vocational training(what fields) or out in the work force? What is their level of financial literacy? Do they have money in the bank? Are they in debt? (college, credit card). What's the racial breakdown? How were questions worded? With all the liberal GenXers educating the young, is it a surprise.
4.) VERY INTERESTING! Like Black Swans. I don't really understand how to know except in hindsight if the end of a movement will be good or bad? Kinda if reminds me of the computer in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" that was invented to answer the question of Life, the Universe and Everything".
I am sure you know more about how Scandinavia was fertile ground for socialism than I did. Thanks for the education.
I figure the value of being a collective culture versus an individualistic culture bends a people in the direction of socialistic (collectivistic) or capitalistic (individualistic) methods. When the going gets tough, then people tend to become more collective and less individualistic I figure. This article makes an interesting point to that assertion: https://www.afsusa.org/study-abroad/culture-trek/culture-points/culture-points-individualism-and-collectivism/
Everyone falls somewhere on the individualist-collectivist spectrum. Even within a very collectivist culture, you will find people who are more individualist. Furthermore, psychology research has shown that people shift along this spectrum, leaning more collectivist or individualist depending on the situation. This adaptability is more common in multicultural communities and contexts.
I figure socialistic solutions are more likely in the future because Millennials: born 1981 to 1996. ... Generation Z: born 1997 or after. ... and Generation Alpha: born 2010 or after have seen or will be seeing formidable problems that will drive them to be more into collective values versus the individualistic values that built America in the last several hundred years or so.
By the time the “if” is now “a fact” with AI it will likely be too late to mitigate any or much of the negative AI effects on most people’s lives. Indeed government/business should be spending more on education, training and retraining but they are not. Most governments are not set up to be proactive about looming problems.
Our government is particularly set up by the founders to have three power centers (Executive, Legislative and Judicial) purposefully designed to make it difficult to change things or for one to dominate as you probably know. Additionally, the founders put in place some “choke points” (the Senate in particular and Supreme Court lesser so) to further block or slow change. Additionally, the founders had a Hobson’s choice of having a new union of the states that could work or not having one at all. The bigger states had to accept the smaller states having disproportionate power in the new union or none at all. They picked have the union we are somewhat stuck with currently. That may have worked back in the past but now I figure we a more responsive and faster process to react than we have currently. I don’t know what that would be other than reform of the Senate and term limits to the Supreme Court so each presidential term 2 new justices would be appointed turning over 8 justices of the court over 16 years. Lastly, the two party system (which the founding fathers realized was problematic) is problematic compared to a parliamentary system with multi-parties. I will spare you the discourse on that he says with a smile.
Our government, at least historically, waits until the crisis is upon us before acting is my take. Thus, I am not optimistic about any action for change until the major crisis has arrived full bore. We can see these two major worldwide changes coming (AI and climate change) but we don’t do much about them but argue over it. We even have close to existential problems looming (like bioterrorism and nuclear terrorism) and we do nothing about them.
Business is more proactive. I recently read Amazon and Walmart have increased the benefits for employees college training as well as offering a “career path” with in company training and coaching for lower level employees.
I also agree polls are fraught with difficulties, there is not a much better to go by, and Gallup is not a “fly by night” slouch at polling.
Ah, the name of the computer was Deep Thought. I have not read the book but looked it up. I think climate change is “settled science” yet some people still argue about it and work against mitigation of the consequences to come. Those who hold minority opinions have used the model created by the cigarette industry to keep anti-smoking laws from happening. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3490543/ as an example.
Now AI could be a black swan event and I figure at the current time the preponderance of the evidence available today indicates this will be a game-changer at least as big as the changes that happened from the Industrial Revolution and maybe much, much larger. At least certainly AI will be a major disruption.
OK, well I am sure I have beaten this thing to death. Just my somewhat informed opinions in these matters that could all be wrong. But ultimately it is all worth probably this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ
Thanks for the brain stimulation for an old guy he says with a smile.
Seems like a Federalist-Anti-Federalist debate. No wonder everyone loves "Hamilton". I thought that those stumbling blocks and bottle-necks were put in place to slow down the process on purpose. People are like lemmings(not sheep), running after the latest "fad" til they go over the cliff. We have a House of Representative whose make up can be changed every 2 years. Should be enough democracy for most. You know how poorly educated the populace, esp. Millennials, Gen-Xer's & Gen-Alpha are in history, civics and economics. I will agree that some reforms are needed but not in the Senate. I don't want it as impotent as the House of Lords. Maybe the line item veto, pork-barrel limitations or requiring legislation to be less than 1000 pages so could be read. Maybe each legislator should have to initial each section they agree even if agreeing to the package. And yes I think it's time for a 3rd Independent/Centrist/Common Sense Party. Maybe more people would vote.
I agree that AI will be game-changing and disruptive as will climate change. I don't believe it's not happening or hasn't been worsened by man. It's how to manage & mitigate is debatable. Some times dystopian views aren't so far out.
Thanks for taking the time to do some research and respond so quickly. As noted much of the data in the first article is old. With the increased emphasis on identity and population increases over the last few decades, I wonder if the map would look different. Here in the US, I can't remember when the census started breaking down the race/ethnicity questions into more categories. I understand why people migrate, but my question was more from the other side. How are the people in these social democracies responding to the new immigrants & refugees? Are they impacting the "safety net" negatively/positively(getting jobs & paying taxes)/not at all? I have heard anecdotally that some of the European countries require some work and will find people jobs, but not sure how that works or if really does. Can't imagine would here. AI will impact some jobs, esp. non-skilled & semi-skilled, but I assume will create others. To some extent so will climate change along with different livable areas. (Still have Shellenberger's book to read.) My other question for those proponents of the "Scandinavian" model is if it's so great why don't you try living there? (can read with sarcasm)
Your welcome. Easy if one is retired. I have not read up on how people are responding to the migrations in Europe in depth. Just off the top of my head from my reading not too well in most countries to awful in a couple like Poland and especially Hungary. Germany has been the best at accepting them since they realize they need them. That said Germany has had an alarming increase in hard-right parties being supported by the voters. Here is a good article on the issue https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-09-23/countries-less-accepting-of-migrants-study-finds I do think that the nature of human beings who are so tribal that the knee-jerk reaction is to reject people not "like me" and these migrants won't be "like me". The whole AI impact is well fleshed out with numbers here: https://techjury.net/blog/jobs-lost-to-automation-statistics/#gref From my reading I think they are a bit optimistic that it won't impact professionals much. AI already reads X-rays and MRIs better than a human radiologist MD. Attorneys are being replaced by AI as well and have been for 5 or 10 years by AI. My B.A. degreed computer scientist nephew who made well into the six figures in a job says he is already retraining in more specialized areas since he can see AI will be writing the code that he is writing these days very soon. Additionally, per the article, while there will be new jobs created from AI they will be for educated people who can re-train into them. As for the piece read with sarcasm on why don't you try living there. In my reading, the younger crowd are very much predisposed to like socialism see here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/268766/socialism-popular-capitalism-among-young-adults.aspx I doubt these numbers have gone anywhere but up since the pandemic. Thus in the long run as the older generations exit the scene the long-term trend favors socialist approaches over capitalistic ones it seems. I of course don't have a dog in the hunt as I won't be here for the situation unless reincarnation is what is next. I just figure it is not going to be pretty. You might want to look at this article: Social physics: Are we at a tipping point in world history?
https://bigthink.com/13-8/tipping-point-history-social-physics?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weeklynewsletter Alright, I will give it a rest. Likely you need to work or something and I do not.
Again thanx for all your time. I haven't had time to read the articles and probably won't til tomorrow or Thursday. Didn't want you to think I was ignoring you.
Awwww kind of you to be thinking of me. I am fine. It is fun for me to investigate these things for my own education. Just the joy of learning for the sake of learning. I have a bit of the academic in me. Then if others benefit from my efforts when I post the info so much the better. If you don't have an interest then, no worries, you can just move on and I won't be offended. I did not have time for this type of research and posting when I was working etc. either.
Hi again. So much to unpack here so I will try to keep as brief as possible ( Am also a slow typist.)
1.) I believe that the Scandinavian countries attitudes toward "socialism" stems from a long history of isolation & insulation. For millennia these areas were sparsely populated, dominated by hunter/fishing/gathering peoples living communally until the glaciers retreated enough to farm. Agriculture settles people, populations grow and groups become more social-centered (centrally governed by strong leaders, then anointed kings). I'm not sure they ever really embraced mercantilism then capitalism as in other parts of Europe. They had very little contact with significantly different peoples as they had nothing most invaders would want or land too cold to conquer. They did some raiding, but took very little culture back with them. The more "civilized" like the Greeks & Romans had no influence and Christianity came very late and was probably quite watered down versions incorporating a lot of their traditions. I think it made them more open to Protestantism. The Low Countries also were not part of the Roman Empire and more influenced by Germanic cultures. Very similar Christianization. Eastern Europe on the other hand was frequently invaded, conquered and divided up by various peoples, some of whom stayed, and better climate. Christianity came to them in a more orthodox way. Most of north-eastern Europe had almost little to no contact with any Semitic, Muslim or African Black groups.
2.) If the stat on AI & jobs are true, then shouldn't government and private business be spending more time, energy and resources on education, training ang retraining than identities, diversity and multi-culturism? Identity Studies will not ready someone those job as STEM studies will.
3.) I am usually very skeptical of polls. Who did they survey? Where in the country? What work experience do they have? Were they in college (where), vocational training(what fields) or out in the work force? What is their level of financial literacy? Do they have money in the bank? Are they in debt? (college, credit card). What's the racial breakdown? How were questions worded? With all the liberal GenXers educating the young, is it a surprise.
4.) VERY INTERESTING! Like Black Swans. I don't really understand how to know except in hindsight if the end of a movement will be good or bad? Kinda if reminds me of the computer in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" that was invented to answer the question of Life, the Universe and Everything".
I am sure you know more about how Scandinavia was fertile ground for socialism than I did. Thanks for the education.
I figure the value of being a collective culture versus an individualistic culture bends a people in the direction of socialistic (collectivistic) or capitalistic (individualistic) methods. When the going gets tough, then people tend to become more collective and less individualistic I figure. This article makes an interesting point to that assertion: https://www.afsusa.org/study-abroad/culture-trek/culture-points/culture-points-individualism-and-collectivism/
Everyone falls somewhere on the individualist-collectivist spectrum. Even within a very collectivist culture, you will find people who are more individualist. Furthermore, psychology research has shown that people shift along this spectrum, leaning more collectivist or individualist depending on the situation. This adaptability is more common in multicultural communities and contexts.
I figure socialistic solutions are more likely in the future because Millennials: born 1981 to 1996. ... Generation Z: born 1997 or after. ... and Generation Alpha: born 2010 or after have seen or will be seeing formidable problems that will drive them to be more into collective values versus the individualistic values that built America in the last several hundred years or so.
By the time the “if” is now “a fact” with AI it will likely be too late to mitigate any or much of the negative AI effects on most people’s lives. Indeed government/business should be spending more on education, training and retraining but they are not. Most governments are not set up to be proactive about looming problems.
Our government is particularly set up by the founders to have three power centers (Executive, Legislative and Judicial) purposefully designed to make it difficult to change things or for one to dominate as you probably know. Additionally, the founders put in place some “choke points” (the Senate in particular and Supreme Court lesser so) to further block or slow change. Additionally, the founders had a Hobson’s choice of having a new union of the states that could work or not having one at all. The bigger states had to accept the smaller states having disproportionate power in the new union or none at all. They picked have the union we are somewhat stuck with currently. That may have worked back in the past but now I figure we a more responsive and faster process to react than we have currently. I don’t know what that would be other than reform of the Senate and term limits to the Supreme Court so each presidential term 2 new justices would be appointed turning over 8 justices of the court over 16 years. Lastly, the two party system (which the founding fathers realized was problematic) is problematic compared to a parliamentary system with multi-parties. I will spare you the discourse on that he says with a smile.
Our government, at least historically, waits until the crisis is upon us before acting is my take. Thus, I am not optimistic about any action for change until the major crisis has arrived full bore. We can see these two major worldwide changes coming (AI and climate change) but we don’t do much about them but argue over it. We even have close to existential problems looming (like bioterrorism and nuclear terrorism) and we do nothing about them.
Business is more proactive. I recently read Amazon and Walmart have increased the benefits for employees college training as well as offering a “career path” with in company training and coaching for lower level employees.
I also agree polls are fraught with difficulties, there is not a much better to go by, and Gallup is not a “fly by night” slouch at polling.
Ah, the name of the computer was Deep Thought. I have not read the book but looked it up. I think climate change is “settled science” yet some people still argue about it and work against mitigation of the consequences to come. Those who hold minority opinions have used the model created by the cigarette industry to keep anti-smoking laws from happening. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3490543/ as an example.
Now AI could be a black swan event and I figure at the current time the preponderance of the evidence available today indicates this will be a game-changer at least as big as the changes that happened from the Industrial Revolution and maybe much, much larger. At least certainly AI will be a major disruption.
OK, well I am sure I have beaten this thing to death. Just my somewhat informed opinions in these matters that could all be wrong. But ultimately it is all worth probably this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ
Thanks for the brain stimulation for an old guy he says with a smile.
Seems like a Federalist-Anti-Federalist debate. No wonder everyone loves "Hamilton". I thought that those stumbling blocks and bottle-necks were put in place to slow down the process on purpose. People are like lemmings(not sheep), running after the latest "fad" til they go over the cliff. We have a House of Representative whose make up can be changed every 2 years. Should be enough democracy for most. You know how poorly educated the populace, esp. Millennials, Gen-Xer's & Gen-Alpha are in history, civics and economics. I will agree that some reforms are needed but not in the Senate. I don't want it as impotent as the House of Lords. Maybe the line item veto, pork-barrel limitations or requiring legislation to be less than 1000 pages so could be read. Maybe each legislator should have to initial each section they agree even if agreeing to the package. And yes I think it's time for a 3rd Independent/Centrist/Common Sense Party. Maybe more people would vote.
I agree that AI will be game-changing and disruptive as will climate change. I don't believe it's not happening or hasn't been worsened by man. It's how to manage & mitigate is debatable. Some times dystopian views aren't so far out.
Thanks for your time and patience. Stay healthy.