TGS Live: Is Tucker Warning Us about Civil War? Or Trying to Incite One?

Note: Due to the AWS outage, many online services experienced disruptions throughout Monday. To ensure that everyone receives the episode, I thought it best to hold the episode until Amazon fixed the problem. Apologies for the delay.

Last Friday’s livestream was a lively one. I feel like I’m hitting my stride with this new medium—the energy is crackling. I’m posting the whole thing here for full subscribers, and I’ll make a meaty segment available for free subscribers on Friday. If you weren’t able to watch the stream live and you want the whole thing, become a full subscriber. You’ll get access to recordings of the livestreams, exclusive Q&As with me and John McWhorter (including the chance to ask questions), full access to our archives and other great benefits.

We start off with the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, which is shared by Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. Rob and I talk about the research that got them the prize, Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction, Yanis Varoufakis’s concept of techno-feudalism, and the ever-present threat of nuclear war.

Then we move on down to South America. Trump is helping out Argentina by agreeing to tens of billions in currency swaps with Argentina, in an attempt to stabilize their economy. I walk Rob through the economics of currency swaps, explain why this one might make sense for both parties, and weigh whether the deal is a thumb in the eye to US soybean farmers.

While Trump is solidifying bonds with Argentina, he appears to be escalating tensions with Venezuela. The US military blew up another boat allegedly piloted by “narcoterrorists” ferrying illicit drugs to American shores. Trump claims, apparently without evidence, to have saved 25,000 American lives with the strike. He’s also announced that he’s authorized the CIA to use lethal force in “covert” operations in Venezuela, though I wonder how covert they can be if he’s talking about them in public. Will cutting off supply reduce demand for drugs in the States? In calling the boat operators “narcoterrorists,” is Trump merging the War on Drugs with the War on Terror? And if so, is there a possibility that he might apply anti-terrorism measures to Americans involved involved in the domestic drug trade? Rob dons his tinfoil hat, and we talk it through.

After that, Rob and I briefly discuss Zohran Mamdani’s plans for a rent freeze in New York City. I chat with Mark Sussman about One Battle After Another, the new Paul Thomas Anderson film, and then Rob ambushes me with a segment he calls “This Week in White Crime.”

We spend the final segment of the show talking about a troubling development in American political life: increasingly dire warnings about an impending civil war. We watch some clips from Tucker Carlson, and I take him to task not for warning about a civil war but for, in my view, coming a little too close to attempting to incite one.

We already fought one civil war in this country, and we barely came through it intact. Talking loosely about another is the height of irresponsibility. Let’s remember that the assault on Fort Sumter was preceded by years of political violence, assassinations, and guerrilla warfare. Mere words from the lips of commentators cannot gin up a war from nothing, but they can inspire individuals and militias to do plenty of damage, especially in a country where firearms are so readily available. I like Tucker on a personal level, and I appreciate that he’s had me on his show, and I agree when he says that Trump has the right to deploy federal troops to protect ICE agents carrying out his lawful policies. But on the civil war issue, he is way, way out over his skis.

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