Thank you for your notes. My apologies for my ignorance about this, so I appreciate your response. I can see how the effect a reduction in the prevalence of shotgun marriages might have on non-marital birth rates. But if that reduction only started to gain momentum around 1970, what explains the ~50% increase in black non-marital birth rates between 1960 and 1970 — and how much of that increase was caused by a factor(s) that continued after 1970? It seems counterintuitive that a liberalization of abortion rights and an increase in contraception availability would result in more non-marital birth rates. How might more abortions and more contraception result in more non-marital births? Is it because those reproduction technologies were used mostly by married couples and not by unmarried couples? That would logically explain an increase in the non-marital birth rate. But it would raise another question: Why would non-married couples not be taking advantage of reproduction technologies at the same rate as married couples? Also, there is no mention of government support programs for single moms. One disincentive for having a non-marital birth would be the financial burden that would place on a woman. If that financial burden was eased through government financial support, might that also be a reason why non-marital birth rates have increased? Sorry for all of the questions.
Nah, most whites don't fantasize about blacks at all. You said it yourself- blacks are segregated away from whites so we whites are already living and working in places where we seldom see blacks so there's nothing to fantasize about.
You must live in Vermont, which is the whitest state in the United States. I live in diverse Georgia and had many whites on my prison caseload while employed by the California Department of Corrections & Rehabilitation.
Individuals can live in a diverse state within an area or small town that isn't diverse.
In CA the imprisonment rate for black men is 4,236 per 100,000- ten times the imprisonment rate for white men which is 422 per 100,000. For serious felonies- because the white general population is 5 times the black population- there are roughly equal amounts of black and white prisoners. And it's possible that your prison because of its location or other factors may have had a different proportion of white to black prisoners.
I don’t think whites “fantasize” about that. What I do think is that we have become increasingly disconnected from people who are different than us (whoever “us” may be). Wealthier people do not regularly interact with poorer people. Highly educated people do not regularly interact with poorly-educated people. Urbanites rarely interact with people in rural America. Races rarely interact with other races — at a deep, personal level (and this has little to do with racism). This has been happening through geographic separation for a fairly long time — and that separation has been exacerbated by the Internet where people can — and I think naturally do — gravitate towards interacting with people who think, believe, and act very much like themselves.
Now, after reading that information, here are my summary thoughts: Essentially, the cultural norm of marriage following an unplanned pregnancy (“shotgun marriages”) faded with the increased access to abortions and availability of contraception. As a result, women in general, but also the women without ready access to abortions and contraception, were less willing to withhold sex in non-marital relationships. But because access to abortions and contraception was not uniformly available, those women without that access then saw a rise in non-marital birth rates. BUT, this does not explain the significant increase in non-marital birth rates between 1960 and 1970 nor does it explain the continued increase in non-marital birth rates for several decades after 1970, during which time access to abortions and to contraception was likely much more uniformly available.
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your interest. I am way out of my depth on this topic. Akerlof and Yellen explored some of the issues you raised in their analysis. It's worth a read if you want a better understanding of what happened.
Thank you for your notes. My apologies for my ignorance about this, so I appreciate your response. I can see how the effect a reduction in the prevalence of shotgun marriages might have on non-marital birth rates. But if that reduction only started to gain momentum around 1970, what explains the ~50% increase in black non-marital birth rates between 1960 and 1970 — and how much of that increase was caused by a factor(s) that continued after 1970? It seems counterintuitive that a liberalization of abortion rights and an increase in contraception availability would result in more non-marital birth rates. How might more abortions and more contraception result in more non-marital births? Is it because those reproduction technologies were used mostly by married couples and not by unmarried couples? That would logically explain an increase in the non-marital birth rate. But it would raise another question: Why would non-married couples not be taking advantage of reproduction technologies at the same rate as married couples? Also, there is no mention of government support programs for single moms. One disincentive for having a non-marital birth would be the financial burden that would place on a woman. If that financial burden was eased through government financial support, might that also be a reason why non-marital birth rates have increased? Sorry for all of the questions.
Black communities remain the most segregated group in the United States.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Residential_segregation_in_the_United_States
According to Andrew Hacker, in "Two Nations: Black & White, Hostile, and Unequal"; most whites fantasize about America being a country without blacks.
Nah, most whites don't fantasize about blacks at all. You said it yourself- blacks are segregated away from whites so we whites are already living and working in places where we seldom see blacks so there's nothing to fantasize about.
You must live in Vermont, which is the whitest state in the United States. I live in diverse Georgia and had many whites on my prison caseload while employed by the California Department of Corrections & Rehabilitation.
Individuals can live in a diverse state within an area or small town that isn't diverse.
In CA the imprisonment rate for black men is 4,236 per 100,000- ten times the imprisonment rate for white men which is 422 per 100,000. For serious felonies- because the white general population is 5 times the black population- there are roughly equal amounts of black and white prisoners. And it's possible that your prison because of its location or other factors may have had a different proportion of white to black prisoners.
I don’t think whites “fantasize” about that. What I do think is that we have become increasingly disconnected from people who are different than us (whoever “us” may be). Wealthier people do not regularly interact with poorer people. Highly educated people do not regularly interact with poorly-educated people. Urbanites rarely interact with people in rural America. Races rarely interact with other races — at a deep, personal level (and this has little to do with racism). This has been happening through geographic separation for a fairly long time — and that separation has been exacerbated by the Internet where people can — and I think naturally do — gravitate towards interacting with people who think, believe, and act very much like themselves.
Okay, Roscoe, I’ve read the actual information at the link you supplied. That answers a lot of the questions I just raised.
Now, after reading that information, here are my summary thoughts: Essentially, the cultural norm of marriage following an unplanned pregnancy (“shotgun marriages”) faded with the increased access to abortions and availability of contraception. As a result, women in general, but also the women without ready access to abortions and contraception, were less willing to withhold sex in non-marital relationships. But because access to abortions and contraception was not uniformly available, those women without that access then saw a rise in non-marital birth rates. BUT, this does not explain the significant increase in non-marital birth rates between 1960 and 1970 nor does it explain the continued increase in non-marital birth rates for several decades after 1970, during which time access to abortions and to contraception was likely much more uniformly available.
I should have added that the Wikipedia source I referenced included perspectives about why black non-marital birth rates rose:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African-American_family_structure
Almost all of these perspectives have merit, but I'm not sure any of them fully explain what happened.
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your interest. I am way out of my depth on this topic. Akerlof and Yellen explored some of the issues you raised in their analysis. It's worth a read if you want a better understanding of what happened.