In essence Glenn Loury argues that blacks are 'victims' no matter what the 'evidence' indicates. Heather MacDonald articulates the ordinary conservative tepid 'white' opinion, but without solutions. Many years ago I took an interest in African-American affairs, I did so from afar. My hope was that by understanding the developed African-American mentality, I would be able to understand the underdeveloped 'black' African mentality. I was disappointed to discover that violent African dysfunction (millstone) was transported to the US through slavery, and has over-time poisoned the well in the USA. No wonder people like Heather MacDonald are disappointed. WE ALL ARE. The brilliant Glenn Loury 'flips and flops' and has spent a lifetime trying to understand the issues and come to up with answers. Advice to Glenn: "it is indeed a fools errand. My conclusion is to enforce MERIT and totally ignore DEI. Being united psychologically, is all that matters.
For many Black people, Heather Mac Donald and Roland Fryer have the same credibility as Ibraim Kendi and Robin Di Angelo have in Conservative circles.
It does not help when a law and order message comes from a party led by a felon with a sex crime conviction. Multiple people in Trump’s circle were convicted of crimes. A T-shirt with a mugshot of an indicted person was how Republicans thought they could gain Black voters.
To put icing on the cake an elderly wrestler who told everyone who didn’t support the Republican Party would face the wrath of maniacs.
The Republican Party is not viewed as the law and order party.
It would be unfortunate if folks questioned Roland Fryer's credibility as an economist. He won the John Bates Clark Medal, which is given to the best economist in America under the age of 40:
This is a fraught problem set that is almost never discussed fully and honestly. I refer to it as a problem set because elements of it (e.g., drug overdose deaths, homicides, other forms of violent crime, etc.) don't fit into neat boxes or follow simple narratives. Equally important, a lack of faith in America's institutions renders a lot of black people vulnerable to demagoguery.
Let's start with the War on Drugs. The reality is that blacks are more likely to die of drug overdose deaths than any racial group in America except American Indian and Alaska Native, non-Hispanics according to the CDC. Use this link and go to Figure 3 if you want to do a deep dive:
The numbers are especially bad if you focus on older black men. The CDC says that overdose death rates for older black men are 7x higher than those for older white men:
Last, but not least, the number of black opioid overdose deaths surged from 5,969 in 2018 to 15,917 in 2022 according to CDC statistics compiled by KFF:
Illicit drug use is a complex problem, so there's a legitimate debate to be had about the best way to address it. Some push for more treatment and harm reduction options for those with substance abuse issues. Fair enough. Not many people will argue against helping those with substance problems kick their habits.
But what about supply? Don't the people who live in communities that are plagued with high levels of illegal drug use and sales have good reasons to want law enforcement to intervene? Those opposed to the War on Drugs often argue that those efforts unfairly target and lead to the incarceration of a disproportionate share of black people. The most recent data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (year-end 2021) doesn't support that claim. It shows that 10.2% of black prisoners in state prisons are behind bars because they were convicted of drug offenses vs. 15.0% of white prisoners and 10.1% of Hispanic prisoners. Use this link and go to Table 16 if you want to do a deep dive:
A robust "cost-benefits" analysis for various approaches to substance abuse is required if the goal is craft public policies that minimize harm. That doesn't happen mainly because demagogues have learned how to leverage distrust, especially black distrust, of America's institutions. A Pew Research analysis from June showed that high percentages of black people believe that America's institutions were designed to hold black people back:
The report includes numbers that say 74% of blacks think the prison system was designed to hold black people back, 70% of black people believe the courts and judicial process were designed to hold black people back, and 68% of black people believe that policing was designed to hold black people back.
Black distrust of policing and the criminal justice system is especially high. The report shows that 76% of black people believe that "Police do very little to stop guns and drugs from flooding Black communities." It also shows that 74% of black people believe that "Black people are disproportionately incarcerated so prisons can make money."
To be fair, the data shows a disproportionate percentage of black people are incarcerated. Here one of the "highlights" from the Bureau of Justice Statistics report I referenced above:
"At yearend 2022, an estimated 32% of sentenced state and federal prisoners were black; 31% were
white; 23% were Hispanic; 2% were American Indian or Alaska Native; and 1% were Asian, Native
Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander"
It's easy to look at these numbers and conclude that the system is incarcerating a lot of black people for petty crimes, but the majority of black people in state prisons (68.4%) are behind bars for committing violent crimes, including 18.7% for murder (See Table 16).
Homicide statistics from the CDC show that black people have much higher homicide rates (27.5 per 100,000 for the years 2018-2022) than the country overall (6.9 per 100,000). Total black homicides during this period (61,352) were 55% of the total (113,427). Use this link if you want to use a CDC tool to do a deep dive:
The homicide rates for black women are even more alarming. A Columbia University study that was released in February showed that black women are murdered six times more often than white women:
Total violent crime statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, however, show that black victimization rates (21.8 per 1,000 as of 2022) were lower than those for all Americans (23.5 per 1000) and lower than those for whites (24.0 per 1,000). Use this link and go to Table 3 if you want to do a deep dive:
So what does all of this mean? I've shared a bunch of numbers that show perplexing patterns :
1. Black people are more likely to die of drug overdose deaths than their peers
2. Black people are less likely to be incarcerated for drug offenses than their peers
3. The majority of black prisoners are behind bars for committing violent crimes
4. Black people are more likely to be homicide victims than their peers, but less likely to be the victims of violent crimes overall
5. More than 70% of black people don't trust law enforcement and the criminal justice system
6. More than 70% of black people think law enforcement allows guns and drugs to flood their communities
7. More than 70% of black people think black people are disproportionately incarcerated so prisons can make money
The conflicting data, along with black distrust of law enforcement and the criminal justice system, have made it difficult to have an honest public debate about policing. That's unlikely to change given today's polarized and racialized political environment.
Interesting data. I’m wondering if you have read the criticism of Heather Max Donalds source data and have an opinion of the soundness of her argument?
Mac Donald testified to Congress in September 2019 cited a July 2019 PNAS study
stating that the study proved there was no racial bias in policing. The study has since been corrected. One author suggested the study be retracted. Has Mac Donald ever changed her position?
I'm not familiar with that study. The PNAS study that I am familiar with came out in August of 2019. It said that the lifetime odds of a black male being killed by law enforcement are about 1 in 1,000. The odds are even lower for black females:
The overall takeaway is that the odds of a black person being killed by law enforcement are low.
Roland Fryer published an analysis in 2016 that said there are no racial differences in how police apply deadly force, but there are racial differences in how they apply non-lethal force:
This paper explores racial differences in police use of force. On non-lethal uses of force, blacks and Hispanics are more than fifty percent more likely to experience some form of force in interactions with police. Adding controls that account for important context and civilian behavior reduces, but cannot fully explain, these disparities. On the most extreme use of force –officer-involved shootings – we find no racial differences in either the raw data or when contextual factors are taken into account. We argue that the patterns in the data are consistent with a model in which police officers are utility maximizers, a fraction of which have a preference for discrimination, who incur relatively high expected costs of officer-involved shootings.
There are scholars who disagree with Fryer. Here's one example:
The arguments are way above my pay grade. That said, both sides seem to agree that there are racial differences in how law enforcement applies non-lethal force.
I'm not familiar with what Heather Mac Donald said before Congress back in 2019, so I'm not in a position to critique her testimony.
I should have added that the PNAS study I referenced shows that the lifetime odds of being killed by law enforcement for all males (1 in 2,000) are lower than the odds of a black male being killed by law enforcement (1 in 1,000)
Communists try to divide people to gain power. When we were in the Soviet Union in 1981 they piped propaganda into hotels for western visitors about the horrible racism in the US. It is no coincidence that the BLM movement and groups inciting riots are communists. They want to cause mass breakdown of order. Anyone contributing to BLM is aiding and abetting the breakdown of order, Unfortunately in today’s world we have too many leaders afraid of being called racist for speaking the truth. How courageous of Prof. Loury and Heather MacDonald to discuss issues with data and facts.
Many people would consider the modern Republican Party as the one being divisive. One would note that the reason JD Vance is the current Republican VP nominee is because the previous Republican VP was threatened with hanging. The majority of the previous cabinet does not support the current Presidential nominee.
Republicans are offering a felon as Presidential material. They also threaten violence if their candidate does not win. Like autocrats, Republican are attempting to suppress votes and ban books. The Presidential nominee is proud of how well he gets along with Putin and Xi. You may be looking for the core problem in the wrong place.
I certainly wouldn't want that job. Micromanaged, used as a human shield, while being led by an incompetent DEI hire. Watch a few X videos, and tell me you want to sign up for that.
This is how it turns out when you let two political parties control everything. Why does the federal government have any involvement in ANY neighborhood? That's not its job. That's OUR job.
Of course that’s true. Everyone knows it’s true. Discourse has become so petulant and fraught that we’re wrapped up in arguing obvious points, screaming into the ether and taking NO action.
In essence Glenn Loury argues that blacks are 'victims' no matter what the 'evidence' indicates. Heather MacDonald articulates the ordinary conservative tepid 'white' opinion, but without solutions. Many years ago I took an interest in African-American affairs, I did so from afar. My hope was that by understanding the developed African-American mentality, I would be able to understand the underdeveloped 'black' African mentality. I was disappointed to discover that violent African dysfunction (millstone) was transported to the US through slavery, and has over-time poisoned the well in the USA. No wonder people like Heather MacDonald are disappointed. WE ALL ARE. The brilliant Glenn Loury 'flips and flops' and has spent a lifetime trying to understand the issues and come to up with answers. Advice to Glenn: "it is indeed a fools errand. My conclusion is to enforce MERIT and totally ignore DEI. Being united psychologically, is all that matters.
For many Black people, Heather Mac Donald and Roland Fryer have the same credibility as Ibraim Kendi and Robin Di Angelo have in Conservative circles.
It does not help when a law and order message comes from a party led by a felon with a sex crime conviction. Multiple people in Trump’s circle were convicted of crimes. A T-shirt with a mugshot of an indicted person was how Republicans thought they could gain Black voters.
To put icing on the cake an elderly wrestler who told everyone who didn’t support the Republican Party would face the wrath of maniacs.
The Republican Party is not viewed as the law and order party.
It would be unfortunate if folks questioned Roland Fryer's credibility as an economist. He won the John Bates Clark Medal, which is given to the best economist in America under the age of 40:
https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/bates-clark/roland-fryer
Some people refer to the award as the "Baby Nobel" because 14 of the winners of the John Bates Clark Medal were eventually awarded Nobel Prizes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medal
People may disagree with Fryer's work, but his credibility as an economist is unimpeachable.
Thanks
Homicide rates are down in Baltimore and DC. Both have Black Democratic mayors
Baltimore
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/crime-down-in-baltimore-police-mid-year-report/61535685
DC
https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2024/04/17/homicides-crime-decline-2024
This is a fraught problem set that is almost never discussed fully and honestly. I refer to it as a problem set because elements of it (e.g., drug overdose deaths, homicides, other forms of violent crime, etc.) don't fit into neat boxes or follow simple narratives. Equally important, a lack of faith in America's institutions renders a lot of black people vulnerable to demagoguery.
Let's start with the War on Drugs. The reality is that blacks are more likely to die of drug overdose deaths than any racial group in America except American Indian and Alaska Native, non-Hispanics according to the CDC. Use this link and go to Figure 3 if you want to do a deep dive:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db491.pdf
The numbers are especially bad if you focus on older black men. The CDC says that overdose death rates for older black men are 7x higher than those for older white men:
https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/overdose-death-disparities/index.html
Last, but not least, the number of black opioid overdose deaths surged from 5,969 in 2018 to 15,917 in 2022 according to CDC statistics compiled by KFF:
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/opioid-overdose-deaths-by-raceethnicity/?activeTab=graph¤tTimeframe=0&startTimeframe=4&selectedDistributions=black&selectedRows=%7B%22wrapups%22:%7B%22united-states%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D
Illicit drug use is a complex problem, so there's a legitimate debate to be had about the best way to address it. Some push for more treatment and harm reduction options for those with substance abuse issues. Fair enough. Not many people will argue against helping those with substance problems kick their habits.
But what about supply? Don't the people who live in communities that are plagued with high levels of illegal drug use and sales have good reasons to want law enforcement to intervene? Those opposed to the War on Drugs often argue that those efforts unfairly target and lead to the incarceration of a disproportionate share of black people. The most recent data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (year-end 2021) doesn't support that claim. It shows that 10.2% of black prisoners in state prisons are behind bars because they were convicted of drug offenses vs. 15.0% of white prisoners and 10.1% of Hispanic prisoners. Use this link and go to Table 16 if you want to do a deep dive:
https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/p22st.pdf
A robust "cost-benefits" analysis for various approaches to substance abuse is required if the goal is craft public policies that minimize harm. That doesn't happen mainly because demagogues have learned how to leverage distrust, especially black distrust, of America's institutions. A Pew Research analysis from June showed that high percentages of black people believe that America's institutions were designed to hold black people back:
https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/06/15/most-black-americans-believe-u-s-institutions-were-designed-to-hold-black-people-back/
The report includes numbers that say 74% of blacks think the prison system was designed to hold black people back, 70% of black people believe the courts and judicial process were designed to hold black people back, and 68% of black people believe that policing was designed to hold black people back.
Black distrust of policing and the criminal justice system is especially high. The report shows that 76% of black people believe that "Police do very little to stop guns and drugs from flooding Black communities." It also shows that 74% of black people believe that "Black people are disproportionately incarcerated so prisons can make money."
To be fair, the data shows a disproportionate percentage of black people are incarcerated. Here one of the "highlights" from the Bureau of Justice Statistics report I referenced above:
https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/p22st.pdf
"At yearend 2022, an estimated 32% of sentenced state and federal prisoners were black; 31% were
white; 23% were Hispanic; 2% were American Indian or Alaska Native; and 1% were Asian, Native
Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander"
It's easy to look at these numbers and conclude that the system is incarcerating a lot of black people for petty crimes, but the majority of black people in state prisons (68.4%) are behind bars for committing violent crimes, including 18.7% for murder (See Table 16).
Homicide statistics from the CDC show that black people have much higher homicide rates (27.5 per 100,000 for the years 2018-2022) than the country overall (6.9 per 100,000). Total black homicides during this period (61,352) were 55% of the total (113,427). Use this link if you want to use a CDC tool to do a deep dive:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D158;jsessionid=B41929F9480FE19C50A21D46A4DB
The homicide rates for black women are even more alarming. A Columbia University study that was released in February showed that black women are murdered six times more often than white women:
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/news/black-women-u-s-murdered-six-times-more-often-white-women
Total violent crime statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, however, show that black victimization rates (21.8 per 1,000 as of 2022) were lower than those for all Americans (23.5 per 1000) and lower than those for whites (24.0 per 1,000). Use this link and go to Table 3 if you want to do a deep dive:
https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf
So what does all of this mean? I've shared a bunch of numbers that show perplexing patterns :
1. Black people are more likely to die of drug overdose deaths than their peers
2. Black people are less likely to be incarcerated for drug offenses than their peers
3. The majority of black prisoners are behind bars for committing violent crimes
4. Black people are more likely to be homicide victims than their peers, but less likely to be the victims of violent crimes overall
5. More than 70% of black people don't trust law enforcement and the criminal justice system
6. More than 70% of black people think law enforcement allows guns and drugs to flood their communities
7. More than 70% of black people think black people are disproportionately incarcerated so prisons can make money
The conflicting data, along with black distrust of law enforcement and the criminal justice system, have made it difficult to have an honest public debate about policing. That's unlikely to change given today's polarized and racialized political environment.
Interesting data. I’m wondering if you have read the criticism of Heather Max Donalds source data and have an opinion of the soundness of her argument?
Thanks for your comment. I'm not sure which of Heather Mac Donald's data and arguments you have in mind. Can you be more specific?
Mac Donald testified to Congress in September 2019 cited a July 2019 PNAS study
stating that the study proved there was no racial bias in policing. The study has since been corrected. One author suggested the study be retracted. Has Mac Donald ever changed her position?
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/06/authors-of-study-on-race-and-police-killings-ask-for-its-retraction-citing-continued-misuse-in-the-media/
I'm not familiar with that study. The PNAS study that I am familiar with came out in August of 2019. It said that the lifetime odds of a black male being killed by law enforcement are about 1 in 1,000. The odds are even lower for black females:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1821204116
The overall takeaway is that the odds of a black person being killed by law enforcement are low.
Roland Fryer published an analysis in 2016 that said there are no racial differences in how police apply deadly force, but there are racial differences in how they apply non-lethal force:
https://scholar.harvard.edu/fryer/publications/empirical-analysis-racial-differences-police-use-force
Here's the Abstract:
This paper explores racial differences in police use of force. On non-lethal uses of force, blacks and Hispanics are more than fifty percent more likely to experience some form of force in interactions with police. Adding controls that account for important context and civilian behavior reduces, but cannot fully explain, these disparities. On the most extreme use of force –officer-involved shootings – we find no racial differences in either the raw data or when contextual factors are taken into account. We argue that the patterns in the data are consistent with a model in which police officers are utility maximizers, a fraction of which have a preference for discrimination, who incur relatively high expected costs of officer-involved shootings.
There are scholars who disagree with Fryer. Here's one example:
https://scholar.harvard.edu/jfeldman/blog/roland-fryer-wrong-there-racial-bias-shootings-police
The arguments are way above my pay grade. That said, both sides seem to agree that there are racial differences in how law enforcement applies non-lethal force.
I'm not familiar with what Heather Mac Donald said before Congress back in 2019, so I'm not in a position to critique her testimony.
Thanks for taking the time to respond.
My pleasure. I added a small addition to my previous comment below
I should have added that the PNAS study I referenced shows that the lifetime odds of being killed by law enforcement for all males (1 in 2,000) are lower than the odds of a black male being killed by law enforcement (1 in 1,000)
Thanks for adding the context
Communists try to divide people to gain power. When we were in the Soviet Union in 1981 they piped propaganda into hotels for western visitors about the horrible racism in the US. It is no coincidence that the BLM movement and groups inciting riots are communists. They want to cause mass breakdown of order. Anyone contributing to BLM is aiding and abetting the breakdown of order, Unfortunately in today’s world we have too many leaders afraid of being called racist for speaking the truth. How courageous of Prof. Loury and Heather MacDonald to discuss issues with data and facts.
Many people would consider the modern Republican Party as the one being divisive. One would note that the reason JD Vance is the current Republican VP nominee is because the previous Republican VP was threatened with hanging. The majority of the previous cabinet does not support the current Presidential nominee.
Republicans are offering a felon as Presidential material. They also threaten violence if their candidate does not win. Like autocrats, Republican are attempting to suppress votes and ban books. The Presidential nominee is proud of how well he gets along with Putin and Xi. You may be looking for the core problem in the wrong place.
I certainly wouldn't want that job. Micromanaged, used as a human shield, while being led by an incompetent DEI hire. Watch a few X videos, and tell me you want to sign up for that.
Not my circus, not my monkeys.
This is how it turns out when you let two political parties control everything. Why does the federal government have any involvement in ANY neighborhood? That's not its job. That's OUR job.
Of course that’s true. Everyone knows it’s true. Discourse has become so petulant and fraught that we’re wrapped up in arguing obvious points, screaming into the ether and taking NO action.