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Democrats do a better job for Blacks economically.

The right way to answering the question of African-American loyalty is to treat blacks as rational citizens voting in their self-interest. And while the sluggish economy of the Obama years may seem like a bad case for Democratic loyalty, that’s not true of Democratic administrations overall. According to a recent paper from Zoltan L. Hajnal and Jeremy D. Horowitz—both political scientists at the University of California–San Diego—there’s clear evidence that when the nation is governed by Democrats, black well-being “improves dramatically” across multiple dimensions.

Specifically, looking at data from 1948 to 2010, Hajnal and Horowitz found that “African Americans tend to experience substantial gains under Democratic presidents whereas they tend to incur significant losses or remain stagnant under Republicans.” On average, under Democratic presidents, blacks gained $895 in annual income, saw a 2.41 point drop in their poverty rate, and a 0.36 point drop in their unemployment rate. By contrast, under Republicans, blacks gained $142 a year, along with a 0.15 point increase in poverty and a 0.39 point increase in unemployment.

What’s more, this was true in relative terms as well. As they write, “[W]hether we look at the gap between blacks and whites or at the ratio of black to white outcomes, the patterns are essentially identical: Republican administrations were, on average, bad for African Americans and Democratic administrations were, on average, good for them, both in absolute and relative terms.”

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2014/05/democrats-are-good-for-minorities-minority-voters-are-making-a-rational-choice.html

According to an Associated Press fact-check, household median income was higher for Black people before Trump took office. Furthermore, Trump’s focus on the unemployment rate ignores other economic hardships that Black people face, like low rates of Black homeownership and low Black male labor force participation rates, according to the New York Times.

https://www.vox.com/21524499/what-trump-has-done-for-black-people

Trump lies about his role in funding HBCUs.

Trump has also repeatedly mentioned how his administration has funded historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs). “They couldn’t get funded. Nobody was funding them for years and years and decades, nobody was funding them,” Trump said.

This is simply untrue: Under Obama, the federal government invested more than $4 billion in HBCUs over seven years.

And while federal funding for HBCUs has been renewed under Trump’s presidency, Trump has not publicly acknowledged that the renewal is the result of congressional appropriations.

“Congress does all this work and presents it to him in the budget, and he can choose to sign it. This year, he held off on signing some significant STEM funding, making HBCUs beg for it,” Rutgers professor and leading HBCU authority Marybeth Gasman told the Washington Post. “Trump has promised all kinds of things to HBCUs and has followed through on little. Under Trump, the White House Initiative for HBCUs was moved to the White House and is quite quiet compared to the work under President Obama’s administration.”

https://www.vox.com/21524499/what-trump-has-done-for-black-people

Blacks vote rationally. They are not the unthinking mass that forms the Conservative stereotype.

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Weirdly, that's what I thought liberal blacks thought of conservative ones.

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Give to me give to me! Eric is all about individual agency. Do you get it?

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Black people pay taxes. Is demanding that tax dollars go to HBCU a “give to me” proposition. Zin not understanding your argument. Voters vote to have things they want in their communities covered by their tax dollars. The other schools weren’t turning down funding.

I often point to the group of Black women funding Black female entrepreneurs. Conservatives object. How is the funding not individual agency?

Edit to add:

Conservatives have stereotypes, and cannot see Blacks outside of their bubbles as individuals. We are poor unthinking Blacks, trapped on the Democratic plantation. They have no knowledge of Fannie Lou Hamer and the Mississippi Democratic Freedom Party or Black Democrats in South Carolina saying no to the Liberals who were choosing Bernie Sanders. Conservatives can’t understand why the Republican Party is not an option for most Black voters, so you tell us that we are brain dead.

Diamond & Silk? Seriously?

When Tim Scott and Byron Donalds were told not to criticize DeSantis, they very obediently shut up. They love life on the Republican plantation. As long as Conservatives cannot address the illness in the Republican Party, they will remain an afterthought in the Black community. The GOP is telling you what they plan to do if Trump is re-elected. Ban on is shouting the plan. Conservatives remain mute.

The Black community won’t bend the knee.

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I'll sidestep the issue of which political party is better for this group or that group. The numbers, and the context required to make sense of them, tell a complicated story that's not as cut and dried as some might think. Let's go through a few of them:

Real (inflation-adjusted) income statistics

Real median household incomes for black people rose on Trump's watch according to data from the US Census Bureau:

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2023/demo/p60-279/figure2.pdf

It has grown a bit more since then.

Median usual weekly real (inflation-adjusted) earnings for black workers 16 and older peaked during the third quarter of 2020 and have not fully recovered according to the St. Louis Fed's FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252884600Q

Home ownership rates

Data from the US Census Bureau (via FRED) shows that the black home ownership rate peaked at 49.7% back during the second quarter of 2004, fell steadily for the next 15 years and rose by almost five percentage points between Q2 2019 and Q2 2020, only to fall by almost three percentage points over the next two quarters. Suffice it to say there's a lot of "noise" in the numbers.

A longer view shows that the black-white home ownership gap has been relatively stable for over a century. A Zillow analysis from 2018 shows that the black-white home ownership gap has been in the range of 26 to 30 percentage points since 1900:

https://www.zillow.com/research/african-americans-homeownership/

The gap was 29 percentage points as of Q3 (74.5% for whites vs. 45.5% for blacks) of this year according to the US Census Bureau. Use this link, download the press release, and go to Table 7 if you want to do a deep dive:

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/current/index.html

Poverty rates

The black poverty rate hit an all-time low of 18.8% in 2019 according to the US Census Bureau:

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/09/poverty-rates-for-blacks-and-hispanics-reached-historic-lows-in-2019.html

It rose a bit during the pandemic, but was 17.1% last year, another all time low. Use this link and download Figure 2 for details:

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-280.html

Use this link if you want to see a graph of black poverty rates going back to 1959:

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/black-poverty-rate.html

Employment statistics

The black employment to population ratio peaked at 61.4% in April of 2000 and has been on a roller coaster since then. It was at 59.2% in October according to FRED:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300006

The black labor force participation rate peaked at 66.4% in September of 1999. It fell steadily for years but began to rise in 2014. It's 3.5 percentage points below the September 1999 peak as of October (62.9%) of this year according to FRED:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300006

The black unemployment rate hit an all time low (5.3%) in August of 2019. It rose during the pandemic, began to fall again and hit a new all time low in April (4.7%). It is up a bit to 5.8% as of October.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006

These numbers reflect the impacts of policies that played out over many years, including foreign policy, trade policy, immigration policy, actions of the Federal Reserve, and tax policy. Some of those policies (e.g., NAFTA) were supported by both parties. The noise in the numbers also reflects normal economic fluctuations that are beyond the control of politicians or political parties. Suffice it to say that claims that one party or another is better for this group or that group are really hard to prove.

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Interesting economic trends and fluctuations.

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A number like the funding of HBCUs seems straight forward.

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True. Just keep in mind that HBCUs enrolled 287,000 students in 2021 according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES):

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_313.20.asp

This compares with 1.948 million black college students that year:

https://nces.ed.gov/fastFacts/display.asp?id=98

So while HBCUs are important and have a role to play in developing America's young people, they educate about 15% of black college students.

Here's a link to another NCES post that adds more context about HBCUs:

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=667

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Should make a small correction to this post. Just under 217,000 of the 287,000 students who attended HBCUs in 2021 were black. That means HBCUs educate a little over 11% of black college students.

Use this link if you want to do a deep dive into HBCU enrollment figures:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_313.20.asp

The numbers for black students enrolled at HBCUs are in the bottom half of the table.

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HBCUs have their growth limited by chronic underfunding.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/government/2023/09/20/states-underfunded-black-land-grants-13b-over-30-years

Tennessee State University was penalized for accepting too many students

https://comptroller.tn.gov/content/dam/cot/orea/advanced-search/2023/TSUFullReport.pdf

Tennessee State has been historically underfunded

https://www.claiborneprogress.net/2023/09/26/report-says-tennessee-state-has-been-historically-underfunded/

Black student applications to HNCUs are increasing

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/18/more-students-apply-historic-black-colleges-and-universities/11155356002/

The point of my post is that Trump and Conservatives lie about their role in funding HBCUs

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The funding of public HBCUs has been a sore spot in several places. The Biden Administration issued a report a couple of months ago that said 16 states have underfunded their HBCUs by $12.6 billion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/09/18/hbcu-land-grant-funding-disparities/

I'm not in a position to debate the numbers, but I've followed what happened in Maryland, one of the 16 states highlighted by Team Biden. A 15-year lawsuit over HBCU funding was settled in 2021:

https://news.yahoo.com/maryland-finalizes-577m-settlement-hbcu-144902534.html

The lawsuit was fought during the tenures of governors from both parties (Martin O'Malley, Larry Hogan).

More recently, the Maryland Higher Education Commission denied applications from Johns Hopkins University and Stetson University to start new physical therapy doctoral programs that would have competed with programs at two HBCUs, the University of Maryland at Eastern Shore and the University of Maryland, Baltimore:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/education/bs-md-hbcu-degree-programs-hopkins-stevenson-universities-20230928-5t5ajcuys5dgridekfjgcflgzm-story.html

Here's an excerpt:

The Maryland Higher Education Commission voted to deny proposed physical therapy doctoral programs at the Johns Hopkins University and Stevenson University due to their similarity to existing programs at the University of Maryland Eastern Shore and the University of Maryland, Baltimore.

In letters sent to each university Sept. 21, Commission Chair Cassie Motz said the decision was based on concerns that the proposed programs are “unreasonably duplicative of existing [doctorate of physical therapy] programs in Maryland and will cause demonstrable harm” to UMB and UMES, which is one of the state’s four historically Black colleges and universities.

The commission, which is tasked with overseeing the state’s 55 colleges and universities, also said that after examining the employer market for graduates of a DPT program, they found that adding programs would hinder faculty and student recruitment at both UMES and UMB.

This was a decision that many people thought was anti-competitive and ultimately bad for Maryland.

Funding aside, HBCU enrollment numbers have been cyclical over the years. Here's an excerpt from an NCES post that illustrates the point:

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=667

In 2021, there were 99 HBCUs located in 19 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Of the 99 HBCUs, 50 were public institutions and 49 were private nonprofit institutions (source). The number of HBCU students increased by 47 percent (from 223,000 to 327,000 students) between 1976 and 2010, then decreased by 12 percent (to 287,000 students) between 2010 and 2021 (source). In comparison, the number of students in all degree-granting institutions increased 91 percent (from 11 million to 21 million students) between 1976 and 2010, then decreased 11 percent (to 19 million students) between 2010 and 2021 (source).

Although HBCUs were originally founded to educate Black students, they enroll students of other races as well. The composition of HBCUs has changed over time. In 2021, non-Black students made up 25 percent of enrollment at HBCUs, compared with 15 percent in 1976 (source).1

While Black enrollment at HBCUs increased by 14 percent between 1976 and 2021, the total number of Black students enrolled in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions (both HBCUs and non-HBCUs) more than doubled during this period. As a result, the percentage of Black students enrolled at HBCUs fell from 18 percent in 1976 to 8 percent in 2014 and then increased to 9 percent in 2021. (source, source, and source).

This link provides access to annual enrollment numbers going back to 1976:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_313.20.asp

There's no doubt that interest in HBCUs has been rising, but there are legitimate questions about whether the leaders of these schools should gear up for more students at a time when the economy could tip into recession over the next 12-24 months or if they should shore up their facilities and endowments. Student protests at Howard a couple of years ago over housing conditions illustrate the dilemma:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/us/howard-protests-housing-agreement-reached/index.html

Similar protests were held at Atlanta-based HBCUs in 2021 as well:

https://thegrio.com/2021/10/20/atlanta-hbcu-students-protest-sleep-in-tents-for-better-campus-conditions/

To make a long story short, the HBCU backstory is complicated.

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I’m aware of the situation. My post was about Trump lying.

Blacks fought for HBCU financial support. Blacks are not the helpless individuals portrayed by Conservatives.

Black Democratic state legislators in Maryland applied the pressure. I didn’t see much Conservative support.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/hbcu-advocates-wage-campaign-to-end-maryland-lawsuit/2019/11/13/6514ee00-017d-11ea-8bab-0fc209e065a8_story.html

Biden said 16 states should address the issue.

The Biden administration demanded governors in 16 states address a more than $12 billion funding disparity between land-grant Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and their non-HBCU counterparts, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

In joint letters sent to the governors of each state Monday, Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack noted that HBCUs have “not been able to advance in ways that are on par” with other land-grant institutions in those states “in large part due to unbalanced funding.”

A land-grant institution is a college or university that provides education in the fields of agriculture, science, military science and engineering. The schools were also built on federal land or funded with proceeds from the sale of federal land that was granted to state governments. By law, according to the USDA, these schools and their HBCU counterparts “were required to receive equitable distribution” of funds from their state governments.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/us/biden-administration-urges-equitable-hbcu-funding-reaj/index.html

The push for correcting funding came from Democrats, not Conservatives. Black Democrats in Congress formed a committee to focus on HBCUs. Increased funding will help expand the HBCUs at a time when applications are increasing. The funding will help serve more students.

Edit to add:

This exchange reminds me why it is difficult to have conversations with Conservatives. I state that Trump lied about his role in HBCU funding. You argue the numbers of Black students at HBCUs. My counter is that the numbers would be higher if HBCU funding were increased.

Your next argument is that MD Governors of both parties blocked HBCU funding. My counter is that Black Democratic legislators did not stop putting pressure to change things.

I stand by my initial point that Trump lied about his role in HBCU funding. Black Democrats in Congress and state legislatures pushed for change.

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Let's stipulate, for the sake of argument, that Team Biden's numbers are right. If so, the issue developed over the course of 30 years in 16 states. Conservatives didn't have exclusive control of those states during that period.

Let's do a drill down on Maryland. Democrats had better than 2:1 majorities in both houses of Maryland's state legislature while Martin O'Malley was governor according to the Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Maryland#1851%E2%80%93present

They could have resolved the issue without any help from Republicans. The fact that the case wasn't settled until Larry Hogan's watch suggests that the issue transcends party.

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Land grant colleges were mostly a Southern phenomenon. If you look at the majority of states involved, and the time period, it is harder to argue Conservative legislatures weren’t an issue.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2022/02/01/for-hbcus-cheated-out-of-billions-bomb-threats-are-latest-indignity/?sh=74d8419d640c

Nothing you post challenges my statement about Trump and Conservatives. You are admitting they had a bad record.

Edit to add:

A Democratic MD Governor did not fund HBCUs. Black Democrats keep pressing and were eventually successful. The Woke won. Nothing in the outcome suggests a reason to support a Conservative.

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Thanks for the exchange.

We see the world differently. HBCUs are important, but they only educate 10-15% of black college students, a group that represents less than 5% of Black America. Arguments about which party shortchanged half of HBCUs (The other half are private institutions) are small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. I'd much rather see black leaders focused on the economy, K-12 education, making cities more affordable and more livable, strengthening families, immigration, trade policy, crime, and other issues that are more impactful.

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