He won the popular vote. Elitists like John cannot see beyond their noses at turning points. Not voting in an informed way? How far off are you from deplorable? Stop digging John. John's having a hard time. Maybe leave New York for a while.
As a "highly informed" and intelligent voter, it is interesting to listen to John so confused as to what people such as myself could possibly see in Trump. One of the main things I'd suggest - John is not getting his information about Trump straight from the source. He is one of the people getting most of his information from MSM soundbites and clips. It is interesting to me to hear an intelligent person be so misled and buying into all of it. For those of us that don't get our information from CNN, MSNBC, or NYT (I do read and listen to them all intermittently just so I know what most liberals are being spoon fed), he just sounds misinformed. It actually does take time and work to follow Trump. You can't simply watch MSM, or read NYT, the Atlantic, etc . In fact, I have never spoken with one person who is anti-Trump who HAS actually put in the time and effort to get information straight from the source. I'd actually love to have a discussion with a very (legitimately) informed person who has evaluated primary sources and still would not vote for Trump. Then maybe we'd get to something interesting rather than spending time debunking what they've heard
.
I suggest, before John comes through with his post-election analysis, he needs to listen to the entire Joe Rogan podcast with Trump. That's a decent place to start.
It is amazing to see the broad-scale manipulation that has gone on. I am stunned by the very intelligent friends and colleagues I have who know little to nothing about most of the issues and just parrot what I can tell they've heard from MSM. Bottom line - I am at least as intelligent and thoughtful as John. AND I VOTED FOR TRUMP.
I accept your apology and verdict that the Democrat Party fraudulently stole the 2020 GE. Hopefully you also accept that what the Democrat Party did was unconstitutioal, treasonous and monumentally evil. The rest of your cunning exposes an immature mind. Unless you discipline yourself in critical thinking acuity and stay on the subject of montrous election fraud, let us revert to your original suggestioin that we agree to disagree, and leave it there.
Luke Englund and I have been arguing J6 in another couple of threads. I wanted to continue the discussion in a new thread because it's unreadable on my phone.
Most recently, Luke asked me if I wanted to defend Trump's actions between the election and J6. I am not defending them; I am weighing two months of Trump's behavior against four years of the opposition to and outright rejection of his election in 2016.
In January 2017, Senator Chuck Schumer said this about Trump: “Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community — they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”
In October 2020, this same IC came out with their letter claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian misinformation. The FBI knew that this was not true; they had verified the laptop in 2019.
Those are the bookends of Trump's Presidency-a threat by Schumer and the execution of that threat by the IC, sabotaging Trump's reelection campaign. In between were the fabricated Russiagate accusations and the overblown impeachment. Each one of these episodes is an outrage in their own right. Together they form an unmistakable pattern-Washington is a law unto itself, willing to do anything to protect its unearned privileges.
A corrupt man's power passes; a corrupt system's only grows.
Will John McWhorter, and to a lesser extent Glenn Loury, to the extent that they were out-of-touch with the majority opinion, fall on their scords? The 'majority opinion' is the critical thinking and informed zietgiest. Will our hosts mae culpa? Let me predict their responses. John will find it impossible to overcome his TDS, but with meticulous and typically prepared articulation of words, make himself sound academic and thoughtful. Glenn will be typically brilliant and play the percentages, he will straddle the fence. As I have said many times before, they are both fine family men, but neither is close to being a leader. It is why they are both pompous academics.
Luke Englund, I'm glad you asked? Using critical thinking acuity, is it in any way conceivable, without CHEATING, for Joe Biden to get FIFTEEN million more Democrat votes in 2020, than registered to vote in 2024. The Barack Obama tally in both of his general elections was FIFTEEN million Democrat votes shy? Consider that Donald Trump received a record Republican vote in 2020 and again in 2024. Where did the
Democrat votes disapprear too? It is conclusive evidence that the Democrat Party
cheated and ballot-boxed FIFTEEN million fake votes into the count.
Ben Shapiro doesn’t believe this conspiracy. Mitt Romney, Bill Barr, Pence, Milley, McMaster, Kelly, nearly everyone that worked in the Trump administration… why is it that nobody agrees with you?
I suppose they’re all RINOs though, so problem solved.
Let’s agree to disagree on ballot fraud. Genuinely curious what your thoughts are on the following:
Oh dear! Ben Shapiro is admittedly smart, but he's annoyingly partisan when it comes to Jewish culture. Ben hated DJT in 2016 and now supports him in 2024. General McMaster excluded, all the others you mentioned are RINO opportunists. Luke Englund, let's not expand this debate beyond the missing FIFTEEN million Democrat votes from the 2020 election. That is the issue.
Ok, well between now and when you last looked into this the gap between Harris and Biden has shrunk to 12 million. Votes are still being tallied. Trump is still 1 million short of his 2020 tally. Did he stuff ballots too?
Washington and Oregon have only counted ~80% of their ballots. California is at ~60%. These gaps will continue to shrink, but even if there’s still a gap at the end I don’t see how this is “conclusive evidence” of ballot stuffing. Voter turnout varies substantially from election to election (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections).
I’m still really curious what your thoughts are on the items I listed earlier. Maybe we can start with the moon landing. Real or rigged?
Luke Englund, let's accept your figure of TWELVE million disappeared Democrat voters. TWELVE million, and you think you can finesse such a figure with infantile platitudes. Anyone with a reasonable IQ would be appalled at such conclusive evidence. Please don't answer if you are going to disgrace yourself as an APOLOGIST for Democrat fraud.
I have been enjoying your podcasts for several months and found your objective views of Trump so insightful. Yes, because you are a black conservative and discuss it openly. But also because I found my way out of the racist south in 1969 and landed in NYC where I lived for the majority of my young adult life (23 years), loving all forms of diversity. I am one of those unaffiliated voters who do not identify with either party as I am very liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues if I must put a label on it.
I write you because I am a little surprised given your analyses of Trump and recent conversation with John McWhorter before the election that you now share you did not vote for Trump. I am just sharing my reaction to your message and am perplexed. Perhaps you will talk about this on your next show. Very respectfully yours, Becky Helms, Charlotte, NC
Trump's victory shouldn't have surprised anybody. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of national and battleground polls had him slightly ahead of Harris on the eve of the election. RCP's summary of prediction markets had Trump at about 60 vs. 40 for Harris.
Economic concerns were the primary tailwind that led to Trump's victory. It has been clear for a while that a majority of Americans weren't happy with the state of the economy.. A Gallup analysis from mid-October showed that 52% of Americans said they and their family were worse off than they were four years ago:
The costs of necessities drove these sentiments. Transportation, food, and housing costs all grew by more than 20% between 2019 and 2023 according to the USDA:
Food costs were up 25% between 2019 and 2023. That increase hit low income people especially hard. People in the lowest income quintile spent 32.6% of their after-tax income on food in 2023 according to the USDA:
Economic concerns catalyzed the formation of a new coalition that transcends race and most demographic categories. A post-election analysis from the BBC said economic issues drove many Latinos, for example, into Trump's "working class coalition:"
In Pennsylvania, the prized battleground state, Trump benefited from a huge swell of support from the state's growing Latino population.
Exit polls suggested Latinos in Pennsylvania amounted to about 5% of the total vote. Trump garnered 42% of that vote, compared to 27% when he ran against Joe Biden in 2020.
The polls will continue to change as votes are counted, but are broadly representative of electoral trends.
In the state's "Latino belt" - an eastern industrial corridor that has shifted to the right in the last two elections - some voters said they were not surprised by the result.
"It's simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago," said Samuel Negron, a Pennsylvania state constable and member of the large Puerto Rican community in the city of Allentown.
Mr Negron, and other Trump supporters in the now majority-Latino city, listed other reasons that their community was drifting towards Trump, including social issues and a perception that their family values now align more with the Republican Party.
The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation.
"Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added. "A lot of us have woken up, in my opinion, from Democratic lies that things have been better. We realised things were better then."
Pollster Frank Luntz refers to this coalition as "paycheck to paycheck voters:"
It's hard to know exactly how many Americans live paycheck to paycheck, but a Forbes analysis from April suggested that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck:
Some will argue that these numbers are inflated (pun intended), but it's clear that the percentage of paycheck to paycheck voters transcends all the other demographic categories, with the possible exception of gender.
Other issues (e.g., border security, reproductive rights, social issues, etc.) also impacted the election. The net effect of these concerns is that only 22% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country according to Gallup:
Harris represented the status quo and couldn't or wouldn't distinguish her potential presidency from Joe Biden's. It's not surprising that a CNN election-night analysis showed that Harris didn't improve upon Biden's 2020 performance in any state by at least 3% and only managed to do that in a handful of counties across the country:
Trump, by contrast, improved his performance in most places, including blue states like Maryland. This analysis from The Baltimore Banner shows that Trump gained ground in every county in "reliably blue" Maryland:
Glenn, if you are not already considering what contributions you might make to the successful functioning of the new administration, please do so. Irrespective of whatever personality flaws Trump may have had before the assassination attempts against him, and may still have, he has demonstrated enormous courage and love for the people of our country. Moreover, he has surrounded himself with people of enormous intelligence and integrity--think JD Vance, RFK Jr, Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and others--all committed to saving our country from the decline we are on (which was, tragically, accelerated by the incompetence, overreach, and corruption of the Biden admin). Please make saving the country a part of your legacy. (Maybe confer with another retiree, Ron Paul, for ideas on how to balance retirement and service to country?)
This is the election where the American public saw that the chaos around Trump came more from his enemies than him.
One bad joke in six (?) hours of campaigning drove three days of headlines. Really? That’s the molehill you are staking your credibility on?
More ink was spilled on whether those five words would destroy Trump’s chances with Latinos than the strange process that catapulted Harris to be the nominee.
They tried to foist Walz off as an avatar of Midwestern masculinity.
Then there was all of the hyperbole around Trump:
He was Hitler, Mussolini, & Stalin all rolled into one.
He’s going to be putting journalists in camps.
He won’t allow history books to be written.
The public saw through the media generated noise and figured out Trump (or Vance) wasn’t the monster they’d been told.
As I said elsewhere, my red pilling was the Establishment going scorched earth on Trump even before he took office and continuing throughout his Presidency. Russiagate was originally a Hillary Clinton smear that should have died with her campaign, but was instead continued by the FBI and Dem leadership well after it was proven to be fabricated.
Any executive branch employee claiming to be part of a “Resistance” to Trump’s election was every much an insurrectionist as anyone storming the Capitol on J6.
Anyone saying that Trump was an illegitimate President is an election denialist.
The first impeachment papers were drafted and submitted for consideration almost immediately. The grounds listed for the impeachment are risible.
Yeah, we largely agree on the dangers from the left. Russiagate was one thing, but all of 2020 was egregious: the lockdowns, the ‘mostly peaceful’ riots, the crackdown on speech…
But I think it’s important to be clear eyed about Trump. Overreach from the left doesn’t green light Trump’s attempt to steal the election. He’s reckless and unprincipled. The Republican Party has become unrecognizable under his stewardship:
- We were the party of law and order. It was unthinkable 5 years ago that the right would be out in the streets fighting with the police. That’s a left-wing thing, right? Now we’re the party that stormed the capitol.
- We were the party concerned with election integrity. Now we’re the party that sent fake electors to the capitol and tried to overturn the election.
- We were the ‘facts don’t care about your feelings’ party. Now we’re fueled by conspiracy theories. From the comical ones about cat-eating Hatians and Jewish space lasers to the dangerous ones about ballot fraud swinging the election.
It’s honestly very sad to see the trajectory the right is on.
Trump: “I don’t know why I get the media attention.”
Joe Rogan: “You say a lot of wild shit!”
Media on the left and right jump on every potential sound bite, but there’s SO much more to jump on with Trump. His rhetoric is insane, we’ve just been somewhat desensitized to it.
But I’d push back on the monster part. Trump did try to steal the 2020 election. That’s NOT hyperbole. That’s un-American. So I would argue that the public couldn’t see through the media generated noise and see him for what he is.
The amazing thing is that not only did Trump win, but contrary to John's glib assertion that there was no chance he would win the popular vote, Trump looks like he may very well win the popular vote as well once everything has been counted. If this holds, I believe you should press John on this particular fact Glenn.
Hopefully this is a death knell for the divisive brand of identity politics that the left has been pushing over the past decade or so. Trump managed to increase his numbers among various groups that conventional wisdom said he couldn't possibly be the candidate of choice for. I was amazed by the fact that roughly 55% of Hispanic men voted for Trump in this election, the guy who everyone in the mainstream media said was a racist because he wanted to deport illegal immigrants.
What was also fascinating was that in a number of red states there were ballot initiatives that were passed supporting things such as minimum wage increases, paid sick leave and abortion rights while those very same states voted strongly in support of Trump. One point that shows like the Young Turks has been making is that when it comes to the bread and butter issues that affect ordinary Americans on a day to day basis, there's actually a clear consensus among large swathes of the population irrespective of political leaning. What divided us were the culture war issues peddled by the radical left that ended up alienating many Americans across racial and gender lines. It turns out that people care about crime in their neighborhoods and the cost of living far more than whether or not we refer to individuals with the proper pronouns. The left's insistence that biological males should be allowed in female spaces such as women's sports also alienated many liberals such as JK Rowling, who's been quasi-cancelled in the last couple of years ever since she outed herself as a TERF.
I know Glenn that you stated that you sat out this election because of Trump's role in January 6th. John shares many of the same reservations. I don't disagree with most of the critiques of Trump's temperament and certainly January 6th was an aberration given our historical norms. But I think that what this election shows is that the claim that Trump was a threat to democracy ultimate rang hollow to many Americans. Many people in this country have little faith that America is truly a democracy rather than an oligarchy where the political elite serve the donors as opposed to the constituents they ostensibly represent. I believe this is why so many people were willing to overlook Trump's numerous excesses, because they fundamentally see a system that's even more corrupt and rotten to the core. Better to let a madman blow it all up to pieces rather than continue to suffer the endless oppression perpetuated by the elites and the establishment political class.
Biden 'received' ~15million more votes in 2020 than Obama did in either of his campaigns. And nobody says a thing. There has ALWAYS been a reason(s) to question the 2020 election.
I’m more than willing to overlook Jan 6. Russiagate was an elitist soft coup against the popular will. The egalitarian in me was horrified, and my politics took a populist bent.
Given a choice between a riot and a coup, I’ll take the riot.
“Fight like hell” is boilerplate political rhetoric. If it were an actual incitement, every coach would be arrested immediately after their halftime speech.
Trump offered up the National Guard on J6 but he was refused. Was his plan to use them to storm the Capitol? Did Pelosi and Bowser thwart the greater threat?
He organized 84 fake electors across 7 swing states. You’re right that not a single one was certified by state legislatures; that’s why they were fraudulent. And these were the pretext that Pence was supposed to use to hand the election to Trump. Again, in your mind what was the “right thing” that Pence was supposed to do?
That is not incitement. It’s many things, but not incitement.
Back to my ground zero. People were calling for faithless electors for Trump. Isn’t that un-American?
People were calling for Trump’s cabinet to use the 25th Amendment on him. Isn’t that un-American?
The FBI repeatedly illegally spied on Trump campaign associate Carter Page. Isn’t that un-American?
Pelosi, Schiff, Schumer, et al repeatedly & knowingly lied about Trump’s connection to Russia. Isn’t falsely accusing an American of treason itself treasonous?
Shouldn’t our “betters” be more judicious in their use of power?
If an owner beats a dog and then dog bites back, can you blame the dog?
As a populist, I see the horror in that analogy. And
Fraudulent ballots did not swing the election. However, the D’s and their allies made sure that they bent every rule to their advantage that they could.
For example, the Green Party was kept off the ballot in WI and PA on technicalities. PA in particular ruled against Stein, not allowing her to cure paperwork, on the same day they ruled to accept ballots after Election Day in violation of black letter law.
Honestly, I have not followed the elector issue. Per CNN, it was a political stunt.
“The pro-Trump group essentially pretended to do all the things that the real electors are required to do, as spelled out in the Constitution. But it was for show. It was a PR stunt.”
Pence did not have the authority to overturn the vote. It’s a ceremonial task. If John Roberts got stuck in traffic the new President would assume the oath of office at the appointed time, oath or no.
Cool. We agree that fraudulent ballots didn’t swing the election. That’s a good starting point. Do you believe Trump lied about this?
The fake electors weren’t a political stunt. They were the pretense that Pence was supposed to use to either hand the election directly to Trump OR throw the election back to state legislatures where Republican’s had a majority. This is all outlined in Eastman’s plan.
The problem was that Pence refused to go along with it, despite consistent pressure from Trump. In a last ditch effort to pressure Pence Trump organized a protest on Jan 6 to “get Pence to do the right thing”. He encouraged his supporters to “fight like hell, fight like hell or we won’t have a country anymore”. Jan 6 was in service of this larger plot to steal the election.
Now you might argue that Trump didn’t intend for Jan 6 to turn violent. In my mind it doesn’t matter. His actions leading up to Jan 6 were illegal and in-American. Would you be fine with Biden pulling this stunt on Harris’s behalf? There’s still time I guess…
He won the popular vote. Elitists like John cannot see beyond their noses at turning points. Not voting in an informed way? How far off are you from deplorable? Stop digging John. John's having a hard time. Maybe leave New York for a while.
As a "highly informed" and intelligent voter, it is interesting to listen to John so confused as to what people such as myself could possibly see in Trump. One of the main things I'd suggest - John is not getting his information about Trump straight from the source. He is one of the people getting most of his information from MSM soundbites and clips. It is interesting to me to hear an intelligent person be so misled and buying into all of it. For those of us that don't get our information from CNN, MSNBC, or NYT (I do read and listen to them all intermittently just so I know what most liberals are being spoon fed), he just sounds misinformed. It actually does take time and work to follow Trump. You can't simply watch MSM, or read NYT, the Atlantic, etc . In fact, I have never spoken with one person who is anti-Trump who HAS actually put in the time and effort to get information straight from the source. I'd actually love to have a discussion with a very (legitimately) informed person who has evaluated primary sources and still would not vote for Trump. Then maybe we'd get to something interesting rather than spending time debunking what they've heard
.
I suggest, before John comes through with his post-election analysis, he needs to listen to the entire Joe Rogan podcast with Trump. That's a decent place to start.
It is amazing to see the broad-scale manipulation that has gone on. I am stunned by the very intelligent friends and colleagues I have who know little to nothing about most of the issues and just parrot what I can tell they've heard from MSM. Bottom line - I am at least as intelligent and thoughtful as John. AND I VOTED FOR TRUMP.
“It’s gonna take a smart doctoral candidate to figure out how he won” …
I accept your apology and verdict that the Democrat Party fraudulently stole the 2020 GE. Hopefully you also accept that what the Democrat Party did was unconstitutioal, treasonous and monumentally evil. The rest of your cunning exposes an immature mind. Unless you discipline yourself in critical thinking acuity and stay on the subject of montrous election fraud, let us revert to your original suggestioin that we agree to disagree, and leave it there.
I’m looking forward to your recap.
Luke Englund and I have been arguing J6 in another couple of threads. I wanted to continue the discussion in a new thread because it's unreadable on my phone.
Most recently, Luke asked me if I wanted to defend Trump's actions between the election and J6. I am not defending them; I am weighing two months of Trump's behavior against four years of the opposition to and outright rejection of his election in 2016.
In January 2017, Senator Chuck Schumer said this about Trump: “Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community — they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”
In October 2020, this same IC came out with their letter claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian misinformation. The FBI knew that this was not true; they had verified the laptop in 2019.
Those are the bookends of Trump's Presidency-a threat by Schumer and the execution of that threat by the IC, sabotaging Trump's reelection campaign. In between were the fabricated Russiagate accusations and the overblown impeachment. Each one of these episodes is an outrage in their own right. Together they form an unmistakable pattern-Washington is a law unto itself, willing to do anything to protect its unearned privileges.
A corrupt man's power passes; a corrupt system's only grows.
John he won the popular vote (and he a transformative figure) though I am NOT a fan
Will John McWhorter, and to a lesser extent Glenn Loury, to the extent that they were out-of-touch with the majority opinion, fall on their scords? The 'majority opinion' is the critical thinking and informed zietgiest. Will our hosts mae culpa? Let me predict their responses. John will find it impossible to overcome his TDS, but with meticulous and typically prepared articulation of words, make himself sound academic and thoughtful. Glenn will be typically brilliant and play the percentages, he will straddle the fence. As I have said many times before, they are both fine family men, but neither is close to being a leader. It is why they are both pompous academics.
Wait, was the ‘majority opinion’ correct in 2020?
Luke Englund, I'm glad you asked? Using critical thinking acuity, is it in any way conceivable, without CHEATING, for Joe Biden to get FIFTEEN million more Democrat votes in 2020, than registered to vote in 2024. The Barack Obama tally in both of his general elections was FIFTEEN million Democrat votes shy? Consider that Donald Trump received a record Republican vote in 2020 and again in 2024. Where did the
Democrat votes disapprear too? It is conclusive evidence that the Democrat Party
cheated and ballot-boxed FIFTEEN million fake votes into the count.
Ben Shapiro doesn’t believe this conspiracy. Mitt Romney, Bill Barr, Pence, Milley, McMaster, Kelly, nearly everyone that worked in the Trump administration… why is it that nobody agrees with you?
I suppose they’re all RINOs though, so problem solved.
Let’s agree to disagree on ballot fraud. Genuinely curious what your thoughts are on the following:
1. The “fed-surrection”
2. Vaccines and autism
3. Cat-eating Hatians
4. Jewish space lasers starting wild fires
5. The Democrat’s weather machines and hurricanes
6. The moon landing
7. Flat earth theory
Oh dear! Ben Shapiro is admittedly smart, but he's annoyingly partisan when it comes to Jewish culture. Ben hated DJT in 2016 and now supports him in 2024. General McMaster excluded, all the others you mentioned are RINO opportunists. Luke Englund, let's not expand this debate beyond the missing FIFTEEN million Democrat votes from the 2020 election. That is the issue.
Ok, well between now and when you last looked into this the gap between Harris and Biden has shrunk to 12 million. Votes are still being tallied. Trump is still 1 million short of his 2020 tally. Did he stuff ballots too?
Washington and Oregon have only counted ~80% of their ballots. California is at ~60%. These gaps will continue to shrink, but even if there’s still a gap at the end I don’t see how this is “conclusive evidence” of ballot stuffing. Voter turnout varies substantially from election to election (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections).
I’m still really curious what your thoughts are on the items I listed earlier. Maybe we can start with the moon landing. Real or rigged?
Luke Englund, let's accept your figure of TWELVE million disappeared Democrat voters. TWELVE million, and you think you can finesse such a figure with infantile platitudes. Anyone with a reasonable IQ would be appalled at such conclusive evidence. Please don't answer if you are going to disgrace yourself as an APOLOGIST for Democrat fraud.
I'm hoping to see the American version of "The Count of Monte Cristo."
Dear Sir,
I have been enjoying your podcasts for several months and found your objective views of Trump so insightful. Yes, because you are a black conservative and discuss it openly. But also because I found my way out of the racist south in 1969 and landed in NYC where I lived for the majority of my young adult life (23 years), loving all forms of diversity. I am one of those unaffiliated voters who do not identify with either party as I am very liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues if I must put a label on it.
I write you because I am a little surprised given your analyses of Trump and recent conversation with John McWhorter before the election that you now share you did not vote for Trump. I am just sharing my reaction to your message and am perplexed. Perhaps you will talk about this on your next show. Very respectfully yours, Becky Helms, Charlotte, NC
He would be thrown out of the University if they found out he voted for Trump.
Trump's victory shouldn't have surprised anybody. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of national and battleground polls had him slightly ahead of Harris on the eve of the election. RCP's summary of prediction markets had Trump at about 60 vs. 40 for Harris.
Economic concerns were the primary tailwind that led to Trump's victory. It has been clear for a while that a majority of Americans weren't happy with the state of the economy.. A Gallup analysis from mid-October showed that 52% of Americans said they and their family were worse off than they were four years ago:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/652250/majority-americans-feel-worse-off-four-years-ago.aspx
The costs of necessities drove these sentiments. Transportation, food, and housing costs all grew by more than 20% between 2019 and 2023 according to the USDA:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58350
Food costs were up 25% between 2019 and 2023. That increase hit low income people especially hard. People in the lowest income quintile spent 32.6% of their after-tax income on food in 2023 according to the USDA:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58372
Economic concerns catalyzed the formation of a new coalition that transcends race and most demographic categories. A post-election analysis from the BBC said economic issues drove many Latinos, for example, into Trump's "working class coalition:"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=user/BBCNews
Here's an excerpt that illustrates the point:
In Pennsylvania, the prized battleground state, Trump benefited from a huge swell of support from the state's growing Latino population.
Exit polls suggested Latinos in Pennsylvania amounted to about 5% of the total vote. Trump garnered 42% of that vote, compared to 27% when he ran against Joe Biden in 2020.
The polls will continue to change as votes are counted, but are broadly representative of electoral trends.
In the state's "Latino belt" - an eastern industrial corridor that has shifted to the right in the last two elections - some voters said they were not surprised by the result.
"It's simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago," said Samuel Negron, a Pennsylvania state constable and member of the large Puerto Rican community in the city of Allentown.
Mr Negron, and other Trump supporters in the now majority-Latino city, listed other reasons that their community was drifting towards Trump, including social issues and a perception that their family values now align more with the Republican Party.
The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation.
"Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added. "A lot of us have woken up, in my opinion, from Democratic lies that things have been better. We realised things were better then."
Pollster Frank Luntz refers to this coalition as "paycheck to paycheck voters:"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2BzZshKwD4
It's hard to know exactly how many Americans live paycheck to paycheck, but a Forbes analysis from April suggested that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck:
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/
A CNBC report from April put the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck at 65%:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/most-of-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-heres-why.html
Some will argue that these numbers are inflated (pun intended), but it's clear that the percentage of paycheck to paycheck voters transcends all the other demographic categories, with the possible exception of gender.
Other issues (e.g., border security, reproductive rights, social issues, etc.) also impacted the election. The net effect of these concerns is that only 22% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country according to Gallup:
https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx#
Harris represented the status quo and couldn't or wouldn't distinguish her potential presidency from Joe Biden's. It's not surprising that a CNN election-night analysis showed that Harris didn't improve upon Biden's 2020 performance in any state by at least 3% and only managed to do that in a handful of counties across the country:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jake-tapper-s-stunned-reaction-goes-viral-after-kamala-harris-failed-to-outperform-biden-in-a-single-state/ar-AA1tC0nl
Trump, by contrast, improved his performance in most places, including blue states like Maryland. This analysis from The Baltimore Banner shows that Trump gained ground in every county in "reliably blue" Maryland:
https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/politics-power/trump-shift-maryland-counties-7IQMZ7YFV5FYVEEZY4DPB3RTCM/
Historians will determine Trump's legacy, but it's clear that he and his team ran a very smart, but occasionally undisciplined campaign.
Glenn, you should have Tyler Austin Harper on to discuss the election. He’s been posting and writing a lot of good insights.
Glenn, if you are not already considering what contributions you might make to the successful functioning of the new administration, please do so. Irrespective of whatever personality flaws Trump may have had before the assassination attempts against him, and may still have, he has demonstrated enormous courage and love for the people of our country. Moreover, he has surrounded himself with people of enormous intelligence and integrity--think JD Vance, RFK Jr, Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and others--all committed to saving our country from the decline we are on (which was, tragically, accelerated by the incompetence, overreach, and corruption of the Biden admin). Please make saving the country a part of your legacy. (Maybe confer with another retiree, Ron Paul, for ideas on how to balance retirement and service to country?)
This is the election where the American public saw that the chaos around Trump came more from his enemies than him.
One bad joke in six (?) hours of campaigning drove three days of headlines. Really? That’s the molehill you are staking your credibility on?
More ink was spilled on whether those five words would destroy Trump’s chances with Latinos than the strange process that catapulted Harris to be the nominee.
They tried to foist Walz off as an avatar of Midwestern masculinity.
Then there was all of the hyperbole around Trump:
He was Hitler, Mussolini, & Stalin all rolled into one.
He’s going to be putting journalists in camps.
He won’t allow history books to be written.
The public saw through the media generated noise and figured out Trump (or Vance) wasn’t the monster they’d been told.
As I said elsewhere, my red pilling was the Establishment going scorched earth on Trump even before he took office and continuing throughout his Presidency. Russiagate was originally a Hillary Clinton smear that should have died with her campaign, but was instead continued by the FBI and Dem leadership well after it was proven to be fabricated.
Any executive branch employee claiming to be part of a “Resistance” to Trump’s election was every much an insurrectionist as anyone storming the Capitol on J6.
Anyone saying that Trump was an illegitimate President is an election denialist.
The first impeachment papers were drafted and submitted for consideration almost immediately. The grounds listed for the impeachment are risible.
I could go on…
Yeah, we largely agree on the dangers from the left. Russiagate was one thing, but all of 2020 was egregious: the lockdowns, the ‘mostly peaceful’ riots, the crackdown on speech…
But I think it’s important to be clear eyed about Trump. Overreach from the left doesn’t green light Trump’s attempt to steal the election. He’s reckless and unprincipled. The Republican Party has become unrecognizable under his stewardship:
- We were the party of law and order. It was unthinkable 5 years ago that the right would be out in the streets fighting with the police. That’s a left-wing thing, right? Now we’re the party that stormed the capitol.
- We were the party concerned with election integrity. Now we’re the party that sent fake electors to the capitol and tried to overturn the election.
- We were the ‘facts don’t care about your feelings’ party. Now we’re fueled by conspiracy theories. From the comical ones about cat-eating Hatians and Jewish space lasers to the dangerous ones about ballot fraud swinging the election.
It’s honestly very sad to see the trajectory the right is on.
I started a new thread since I'm not seeing a lot of your responses.
I started a new thread since I'm not seeing a lot of your responses.
Trump: “I don’t know why I get the media attention.”
Joe Rogan: “You say a lot of wild shit!”
Media on the left and right jump on every potential sound bite, but there’s SO much more to jump on with Trump. His rhetoric is insane, we’ve just been somewhat desensitized to it.
But I’d push back on the monster part. Trump did try to steal the 2020 election. That’s NOT hyperbole. That’s un-American. So I would argue that the public couldn’t see through the media generated noise and see him for what he is.
The amazing thing is that not only did Trump win, but contrary to John's glib assertion that there was no chance he would win the popular vote, Trump looks like he may very well win the popular vote as well once everything has been counted. If this holds, I believe you should press John on this particular fact Glenn.
Hopefully this is a death knell for the divisive brand of identity politics that the left has been pushing over the past decade or so. Trump managed to increase his numbers among various groups that conventional wisdom said he couldn't possibly be the candidate of choice for. I was amazed by the fact that roughly 55% of Hispanic men voted for Trump in this election, the guy who everyone in the mainstream media said was a racist because he wanted to deport illegal immigrants.
What was also fascinating was that in a number of red states there were ballot initiatives that were passed supporting things such as minimum wage increases, paid sick leave and abortion rights while those very same states voted strongly in support of Trump. One point that shows like the Young Turks has been making is that when it comes to the bread and butter issues that affect ordinary Americans on a day to day basis, there's actually a clear consensus among large swathes of the population irrespective of political leaning. What divided us were the culture war issues peddled by the radical left that ended up alienating many Americans across racial and gender lines. It turns out that people care about crime in their neighborhoods and the cost of living far more than whether or not we refer to individuals with the proper pronouns. The left's insistence that biological males should be allowed in female spaces such as women's sports also alienated many liberals such as JK Rowling, who's been quasi-cancelled in the last couple of years ever since she outed herself as a TERF.
I know Glenn that you stated that you sat out this election because of Trump's role in January 6th. John shares many of the same reservations. I don't disagree with most of the critiques of Trump's temperament and certainly January 6th was an aberration given our historical norms. But I think that what this election shows is that the claim that Trump was a threat to democracy ultimate rang hollow to many Americans. Many people in this country have little faith that America is truly a democracy rather than an oligarchy where the political elite serve the donors as opposed to the constituents they ostensibly represent. I believe this is why so many people were willing to overlook Trump's numerous excesses, because they fundamentally see a system that's even more corrupt and rotten to the core. Better to let a madman blow it all up to pieces rather than continue to suffer the endless oppression perpetuated by the elites and the establishment political class.
Biden 'received' ~15million more votes in 2020 than Obama did in either of his campaigns. And nobody says a thing. There has ALWAYS been a reason(s) to question the 2020 election.
I’m more than willing to overlook Jan 6. Russiagate was an elitist soft coup against the popular will. The egalitarian in me was horrified, and my politics took a populist bent.
Given a choice between a riot and a coup, I’ll take the riot.
Going out on a limb here, but I’m guessing you believe
1. fraudulent ballots swung the 2020 election,
2. the fake electors Trump organized were ‘alternate electors’,
3. and that Pence had the authority (and should have used it) to overturn the vote.
Does that about sum it up?
“Fight like hell” is boilerplate political rhetoric. If it were an actual incitement, every coach would be arrested immediately after their halftime speech.
Trump offered up the National Guard on J6 but he was refused. Was his plan to use them to storm the Capitol? Did Pelosi and Bowser thwart the greater threat?
From the article I read,
Stupid fat finger…
From the article I read, PA’s electors’ forms were not compliant-it truly was a stunt. Trump would not have had enough electors anyway.
He organized 84 fake electors across 7 swing states. You’re right that not a single one was certified by state legislatures; that’s why they were fraudulent. And these were the pretext that Pence was supposed to use to hand the election to Trump. Again, in your mind what was the “right thing” that Pence was supposed to do?
Honestly “fight like hell” isn’t the important part. What was the “right thing” that Pence was supposed to do?
That is not incitement. It’s many things, but not incitement.
Back to my ground zero. People were calling for faithless electors for Trump. Isn’t that un-American?
People were calling for Trump’s cabinet to use the 25th Amendment on him. Isn’t that un-American?
The FBI repeatedly illegally spied on Trump campaign associate Carter Page. Isn’t that un-American?
Pelosi, Schiff, Schumer, et al repeatedly & knowingly lied about Trump’s connection to Russia. Isn’t falsely accusing an American of treason itself treasonous?
Shouldn’t our “betters” be more judicious in their use of power?
If an owner beats a dog and then dog bites back, can you blame the dog?
As a populist, I see the horror in that analogy. And
I don’t care about incitement. What was the “right thing” that Pence was supposed to do?
Nope.
Fraudulent ballots did not swing the election. However, the D’s and their allies made sure that they bent every rule to their advantage that they could.
For example, the Green Party was kept off the ballot in WI and PA on technicalities. PA in particular ruled against Stein, not allowing her to cure paperwork, on the same day they ruled to accept ballots after Election Day in violation of black letter law.
Honestly, I have not followed the elector issue. Per CNN, it was a political stunt.
“The pro-Trump group essentially pretended to do all the things that the real electors are required to do, as spelled out in the Constitution. But it was for show. It was a PR stunt.”
Pence did not have the authority to overturn the vote. It’s a ceremonial task. If John Roberts got stuck in traffic the new President would assume the oath of office at the appointed time, oath or no.
Cool. We agree that fraudulent ballots didn’t swing the election. That’s a good starting point. Do you believe Trump lied about this?
The fake electors weren’t a political stunt. They were the pretense that Pence was supposed to use to either hand the election directly to Trump OR throw the election back to state legislatures where Republican’s had a majority. This is all outlined in Eastman’s plan.
The problem was that Pence refused to go along with it, despite consistent pressure from Trump. In a last ditch effort to pressure Pence Trump organized a protest on Jan 6 to “get Pence to do the right thing”. He encouraged his supporters to “fight like hell, fight like hell or we won’t have a country anymore”. Jan 6 was in service of this larger plot to steal the election.
Now you might argue that Trump didn’t intend for Jan 6 to turn violent. In my mind it doesn’t matter. His actions leading up to Jan 6 were illegal and in-American. Would you be fine with Biden pulling this stunt on Harris’s behalf? There’s still time I guess…
Will be fun to listen to your thoughts