Glenn Loury
The Glenn Show
Larry Kotlikoff – Can the US Survive Tariff Turmoil?
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Larry Kotlikoff – Can the US Survive Tariff Turmoil?

President Donald Trump is in the habit of declaring nearly all of his actions, no matter how symbolic or superficial, to be “historic.” But when it comes to the sweeping tariffs he put into place last week, the word fits the bill. No president in my lifetime has enacted an economic plan this sweeping—it has the potential to reorganize, in one stroke, global trade and transnational alliances. As a believer in the benefits of free trade and a conservative, I’m deeply concerned about the consequences of these tariffs for our economy and the world’s. I wanted to understand just how worried I should be, so I invited my great friend Larry Kotlikoff—entrepreneur, Boston University economist, and financial wizard—onto the show to talk about what we’re now facing.

Larry explains that the majority of economists are just as worried as I am. And he has little faith in our elected officials’ ability to understand what they’re abetting, nor does he think the Republican-controlled Congress is willing to oppose Trump’s agenda, even when it promises to hurt Americans. As is his wont, he offers some advice for investors who want to protect themselves from the fallout. Now, Larry is no Trump fan, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by his attitude, but the tariffs will affect all of us, whatever our political leanings. The Democrats seem unable to do anything to stop Trump at all, which is perhaps why Larry recommends that a charismatic, self-funded, third-party billionaire step up to run for president in 2028. Tariffs aren’t the only thing that will need fixing. Larry is a long-time critic of what he calls social security’s “Ponzi scheme.” It’s fixable, according to him, but it will take some political will to get it done.

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0:00 Intro

0:45 Why Trump’s tariffs alarm economists

8:18 Are the tariffs designed to offset Trump’s tax cuts?

11:30 Larry’s break with Senator Ron Johnson

14:16 Larry: We’re not in a trade war with other countries, we’re in a trade war with other people

22:44 Is Trump under the sway of a foreign power?

28:45 What measures should investors take to protect themselves from tariff-generated market volatility?

35:46 The possible silver lining in the economy under tariffs

41:32 The hypothetical third-party billionaire who could defeat Trump

44:46 The social security Ponzi scheme

54:50 Larry’s plan for fixing social security

57:29 Are other aging nations facing the same social security crisis as the US?

1:02:23 The failure of checks and balances

Recorded April 4, 2025


Links and Readings

Larry’s Substack

Larry’s company, Economic Security Planning

The MaxiFi Planner

TIPs Ladder

Rajiv Sethi’s Substack, Imperfect Information

Larry’s book, You’re Hired: A Trump Playbook for Fixing America’s Economy


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