Listen now (75 min) | This week’s I’ve got Rafael Mangual on the show for his long-awaited (at least by me) TGS debut. Rafael is my colleague at the Manhattan Institute, where he is the Nick Ohnell Fellow and head of research for the Policing and Public Safety Initiative. He is also the author of the new book
Thanks for discussion with Rafael Mangual at Manhattan Institute. Question- what are the roles of Mangual and Fryer?
At time 1:09 - the two of you discuss what was previously referred to as “The Fergusson Effect.” When I used to be more liberal, before becoming a “right winger” conservative liberal, I would have fairly weighed the argument of police vulnerability. My job is to touch computer buttons and the telephone. Police have the job of touching uncooperative humans during a police-civilian conflict. An arrest is a conflict because the officer is immediately demoting an individual’s autonomy and positioning the adult suspect as if a child in terms of authority. This demotion is necessary for an arrest to become successful. Every PhD psychologist in the country knows this.
I have seen parents show restraint in public-and sometimes their children know this is an opportunity to misbehave. Even a teacher who is monitored in the classroom will probably be more permissive or a chef who knows the NY Times food critic is seated at a table.
Although the American public needs a functional police force, part of me wishes that every police officer would walk off the job to give activists and local politicians exactly what they deserve for fanatically mis-guided public safety policy.
A friend who is a security guard was recently instructed at orientation to move backwards if approached by an attacking trespasser. Societal expectations of police behavior are not sane.
I guarantee that a single incompetent doctor killing a patient in one city would not lead to “Defund” hospitals. And doctors have the luxury of putting the patient to sleep before the surgical procedure begins. In June 2020, police across the country were denied due process while mayors exercised dictatorship authority they do not have - to implement “Defund”. A saw an officer standing 10 feet away from me In early June 2020 who looked like he was experiencing emotional trauma. I also saw many middle and upper-income “types” who began to take off their masks as did I.
I watched both this interview with Glenn and Rafael's interview with Trevor Noah. I think one of the most important points that he made was that it doesn't appear that crime is significantly caused by low SES. The data point he gave on Trevor's show was that around 1990 NYC had over 2000 homicides per year but that that had dropped to the upper 200s by the late 2010s. This was despite poverty being actually slightly higher now than it was then.
I think one of the biggest shibboleths of the left is that low SES is the primary cause for every social malady from crime to low achievement. I'm not an academic and definitely am not a data person like Rafael but from what I've observed the claim about the causal effects of SES are tenuous at best. I pointed out before that China despite having relatively modest per capita GDP even today exhibits very little difference compared to the wealthier regions of East Asia on metrics such as homicides per 100,000 population or PISA scores. There's simply too much variation in terms of behavior among people of different ethnic groups but comparable SES to assert that low SES causally induces crime or poor achievement. In the case of the East Asian region, there's not even much of a correlation between SES and life outcomes let alone any evidence of stronger claims of causation.
The sooner that this point is hammed across the sooner I believe that the left will no longer be able to automatically use poverty as a crutch to justify bad behavior among those who most need reform.
Glenn brings it up, but I think it's important not to just note that the existence of "the talk" is out of line with reality, but that it is likely linked to increased rates of use of force. Children are impressionable. Things learned in childhood are hard to unlearn and we as humans are much more likely to take instruction when younger rather than older (e.g. learning languages becomes more difficult as we age). So when parents, the ultimate authority, tell children "every interaction you have with the police will be adversarial", when teachers and peers repeat these same ideas, how could we not expect to see a higher rate of adversarial interactions with police??? It's self-fulfilling prophecy, and it may come with good intentions, but it leads to bad outcomes.
I hate to tell your wife Glenn but teachers are doing the same thing. No discipline, if they get dinged for disciplining the wrong person, they pull back. They quit.
Always interesting but why does the BLM narrative persist? You have to look at who benefits. Certainly the grifters at the top of BLM but also anyone who wishes to spread chaos in our society and that would include a large number of actors on the left who believe that their revolution will come if they succeed in doing so. It is also a prime virtue signal for whites, particularly upper class whites who feel guilty about their status.
29:25 - “The case of Marceline Harvey [i.e. Harvey Marcelin]…paroled in 2019 for a murder that this person was convicted of in 1985 which came after being paroled for a murder this person was convicted of committing in 1963.”
While it’s good that Mr. Mangual refrains from referring to the trans-identified Harvey as “she” (as compared to MSM reports which would have us think we need to pretend he is a woman), it doesn’t reflect well on him or any of the rest of us if we are afraid to correctly identify and refer to the sex of violent offenders for fear of causing offense. To say it’s Orwellian to be concerned about pronoun sensitivities even in the midst of discussing horrific crimes is an understatement.
I think this information is very useful. I have friends who are attorneys that work in the criminal justice system, and would strongly identity as “woke”.
That said, those friends are completely oblivious to this sort of information. I would specially ask questions similar to what was covered. My response was typically a fiery response about systemic racism.
I recall recent news about Biden pardoning convicts for simple possession of marijuana. What shocked me was that it only impacted 6,500 people at the federal level. Watching documentaries like 14th and Amend, I would think that number is way higher.
I just don’t know how you get critical information like this in front of someone so consumed by what McWhorter accurately described as a religion. Maybe appearances on more shows like Trevor Noah will help.
I hope Dr. Loury's excerpt this week includes Rafael's comments starting at 13:30. Rafael's comments show just how difficult it is to get serious/violent offenders off the streets, and why so many find it ludicrous to release them under the guise of "social justice." Long story, short, more than half of serious/violent crimes go unreported. Of those reported, only 1 in 8 is cleared. So, statistically speaking, when a guy is arrested, he got away with 15 other serious offenses. By the time he goes to prison, he's probably been tried and convicted three times, which means he, statistically speaking, committed close to 50 crimes. As Heather Mac Donald puts it, "a lifetime achievement award for persistence in criminal offending."
Call them what you want (but not "degenerate savages"), it's clear who is committing the bulk of violent crime in our cities and neighborhoods. They need to be arrested and kept out of society forever. The fact that government doesn't have a clue how to reform these people and make them into respectable members of society is a separate issue.
I can think of a lot of other ways George Soros can spend his billions to improve society rather than funding the never ending release of thugs into our poorest communities and instigating to reduce law enforcement in those same communities. Sounds like an episode from Twilight Zone.
Great discussion, very valuable to anyone who cares about our justice system. As a prosecutor, what I see every day is born out in Rafael’s data. In the United States, we are often faced with two false diametric choices: everyone goes to prison, or everyone gets probation (and rehabilitation). That’s not what happens, and we wouldn’t want it to be. As Rafael shows, most felony convictions result in probation, and most people in prison are on a sustained campaign of multiple convictions finally resulting in incarceration.
My heart swelled three sizes to hear classic sentencing rationales discussed (deterrence, incapacitation, rehabilitation, vengeance, and the last one, which I think was left out, is restitution). All have costs and benefits.
The correct number of people in prison is determined by criminals. If a vicious crime spree ensues tomorrow in Glenn’s hometown, those responsible should be incapacitated so they cannot hurt the community. No one but the criminals decided that.
Very informative discussion! Critiques of defund the police and decarcerate all people locked up ought to be driven by data like Rafael Mangual, not just repeating leftist mantras every time a tragedy involving cops and perps occurs. Both sides of the argument should set aside politics and scientifically examine the problem. What does the data reveal about the state of criminality in USA? What are the ways that have been proven by data to work in the past? The focus should be on doing the right thing, not playing politics with people's lives for brinkmanship.
I'm innately against the "thin blue line" narrative, because I generally find groupthink reductive, but holy shit was that a great episode! Someone link back to Rafael on his appearance with Trevor Noah please. I'd love to watch Trevor's blood vessels bulging and his head teetering on explosion. I look forward to checking into more of Rafael's work. Thanks for hosting him, Glenn!
Thanks for discussion with Rafael Mangual at Manhattan Institute. Question- what are the roles of Mangual and Fryer?
At time 1:09 - the two of you discuss what was previously referred to as “The Fergusson Effect.” When I used to be more liberal, before becoming a “right winger” conservative liberal, I would have fairly weighed the argument of police vulnerability. My job is to touch computer buttons and the telephone. Police have the job of touching uncooperative humans during a police-civilian conflict. An arrest is a conflict because the officer is immediately demoting an individual’s autonomy and positioning the adult suspect as if a child in terms of authority. This demotion is necessary for an arrest to become successful. Every PhD psychologist in the country knows this.
I have seen parents show restraint in public-and sometimes their children know this is an opportunity to misbehave. Even a teacher who is monitored in the classroom will probably be more permissive or a chef who knows the NY Times food critic is seated at a table.
Although the American public needs a functional police force, part of me wishes that every police officer would walk off the job to give activists and local politicians exactly what they deserve for fanatically mis-guided public safety policy.
A friend who is a security guard was recently instructed at orientation to move backwards if approached by an attacking trespasser. Societal expectations of police behavior are not sane.
I guarantee that a single incompetent doctor killing a patient in one city would not lead to “Defund” hospitals. And doctors have the luxury of putting the patient to sleep before the surgical procedure begins. In June 2020, police across the country were denied due process while mayors exercised dictatorship authority they do not have - to implement “Defund”. A saw an officer standing 10 feet away from me In early June 2020 who looked like he was experiencing emotional trauma. I also saw many middle and upper-income “types” who began to take off their masks as did I.
I watched both this interview with Glenn and Rafael's interview with Trevor Noah. I think one of the most important points that he made was that it doesn't appear that crime is significantly caused by low SES. The data point he gave on Trevor's show was that around 1990 NYC had over 2000 homicides per year but that that had dropped to the upper 200s by the late 2010s. This was despite poverty being actually slightly higher now than it was then.
I think one of the biggest shibboleths of the left is that low SES is the primary cause for every social malady from crime to low achievement. I'm not an academic and definitely am not a data person like Rafael but from what I've observed the claim about the causal effects of SES are tenuous at best. I pointed out before that China despite having relatively modest per capita GDP even today exhibits very little difference compared to the wealthier regions of East Asia on metrics such as homicides per 100,000 population or PISA scores. There's simply too much variation in terms of behavior among people of different ethnic groups but comparable SES to assert that low SES causally induces crime or poor achievement. In the case of the East Asian region, there's not even much of a correlation between SES and life outcomes let alone any evidence of stronger claims of causation.
The sooner that this point is hammed across the sooner I believe that the left will no longer be able to automatically use poverty as a crutch to justify bad behavior among those who most need reform.
Wow. Phenomenal guest, Glenn -- and only 36? No doubt we can expect great things from him.
The book, Criminal (In)Justice is superb, comprehensive and data driven. Mangual may be this generation's Thomas Sowell.
Glenn brings it up, but I think it's important not to just note that the existence of "the talk" is out of line with reality, but that it is likely linked to increased rates of use of force. Children are impressionable. Things learned in childhood are hard to unlearn and we as humans are much more likely to take instruction when younger rather than older (e.g. learning languages becomes more difficult as we age). So when parents, the ultimate authority, tell children "every interaction you have with the police will be adversarial", when teachers and peers repeat these same ideas, how could we not expect to see a higher rate of adversarial interactions with police??? It's self-fulfilling prophecy, and it may come with good intentions, but it leads to bad outcomes.
I hate to tell your wife Glenn but teachers are doing the same thing. No discipline, if they get dinged for disciplining the wrong person, they pull back. They quit.
Always interesting but why does the BLM narrative persist? You have to look at who benefits. Certainly the grifters at the top of BLM but also anyone who wishes to spread chaos in our society and that would include a large number of actors on the left who believe that their revolution will come if they succeed in doing so. It is also a prime virtue signal for whites, particularly upper class whites who feel guilty about their status.
29:25 - “The case of Marceline Harvey [i.e. Harvey Marcelin]…paroled in 2019 for a murder that this person was convicted of in 1985 which came after being paroled for a murder this person was convicted of committing in 1963.”
While it’s good that Mr. Mangual refrains from referring to the trans-identified Harvey as “she” (as compared to MSM reports which would have us think we need to pretend he is a woman), it doesn’t reflect well on him or any of the rest of us if we are afraid to correctly identify and refer to the sex of violent offenders for fear of causing offense. To say it’s Orwellian to be concerned about pronoun sensitivities even in the midst of discussing horrific crimes is an understatement.
I think this information is very useful. I have friends who are attorneys that work in the criminal justice system, and would strongly identity as “woke”.
That said, those friends are completely oblivious to this sort of information. I would specially ask questions similar to what was covered. My response was typically a fiery response about systemic racism.
I recall recent news about Biden pardoning convicts for simple possession of marijuana. What shocked me was that it only impacted 6,500 people at the federal level. Watching documentaries like 14th and Amend, I would think that number is way higher.
I just don’t know how you get critical information like this in front of someone so consumed by what McWhorter accurately described as a religion. Maybe appearances on more shows like Trevor Noah will help.
This conversation on "Uncommon Knowledge" with Rafael Mangual and Roland Fryer is excellent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze7olOu_PPY
They have some real common sense suggestions:
1. Lock the really bad guys up and through away the keys.
2. Address the tendency of Police to use unwarranted physical force............... more often against black men than white.........via training.
The political will (balls) to do both is missing today.
As always such an informative well argued and articulated position. I just recently discovered your Substack and it’s among the top out there.
I hope Dr. Loury's excerpt this week includes Rafael's comments starting at 13:30. Rafael's comments show just how difficult it is to get serious/violent offenders off the streets, and why so many find it ludicrous to release them under the guise of "social justice." Long story, short, more than half of serious/violent crimes go unreported. Of those reported, only 1 in 8 is cleared. So, statistically speaking, when a guy is arrested, he got away with 15 other serious offenses. By the time he goes to prison, he's probably been tried and convicted three times, which means he, statistically speaking, committed close to 50 crimes. As Heather Mac Donald puts it, "a lifetime achievement award for persistence in criminal offending."
Call them what you want (but not "degenerate savages"), it's clear who is committing the bulk of violent crime in our cities and neighborhoods. They need to be arrested and kept out of society forever. The fact that government doesn't have a clue how to reform these people and make them into respectable members of society is a separate issue.
I can think of a lot of other ways George Soros can spend his billions to improve society rather than funding the never ending release of thugs into our poorest communities and instigating to reduce law enforcement in those same communities. Sounds like an episode from Twilight Zone.
Glenn and Rafael,
Great discussion, very valuable to anyone who cares about our justice system. As a prosecutor, what I see every day is born out in Rafael’s data. In the United States, we are often faced with two false diametric choices: everyone goes to prison, or everyone gets probation (and rehabilitation). That’s not what happens, and we wouldn’t want it to be. As Rafael shows, most felony convictions result in probation, and most people in prison are on a sustained campaign of multiple convictions finally resulting in incarceration.
My heart swelled three sizes to hear classic sentencing rationales discussed (deterrence, incapacitation, rehabilitation, vengeance, and the last one, which I think was left out, is restitution). All have costs and benefits.
The correct number of people in prison is determined by criminals. If a vicious crime spree ensues tomorrow in Glenn’s hometown, those responsible should be incapacitated so they cannot hurt the community. No one but the criminals decided that.
Very informative discussion! Critiques of defund the police and decarcerate all people locked up ought to be driven by data like Rafael Mangual, not just repeating leftist mantras every time a tragedy involving cops and perps occurs. Both sides of the argument should set aside politics and scientifically examine the problem. What does the data reveal about the state of criminality in USA? What are the ways that have been proven by data to work in the past? The focus should be on doing the right thing, not playing politics with people's lives for brinkmanship.
I'm innately against the "thin blue line" narrative, because I generally find groupthink reductive, but holy shit was that a great episode! Someone link back to Rafael on his appearance with Trevor Noah please. I'd love to watch Trevor's blood vessels bulging and his head teetering on explosion. I look forward to checking into more of Rafael's work. Thanks for hosting him, Glenn!