106 Comments

Well written. This kind of data driven breakdown really works for me. I do have one critique. If you are interested in reaching someone who is skeptical, you should try to anticipate and acknowledge their feelings whenever you can. Not saying to pander, but where there is common ground, make sure they notice it.

"Things took a terrible turn for the worse after George Floyd died"

It may seem small, but "when George Floyd was killed" would go a long way.

"when George Floyd was murdered" would be consistent with the conviction and go even further.

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Thanks Glen, for this thoughtful article. But it sorely misses some things. We’ve just had 10 people murdered because they are black by a self proclaimed white supremacist. We have now a Republican party (not the one I joined 30 years ago) that now boldly perpetuates racist tropes and has given a comfortable home to white supremacist and their grievances. And happily divides us. Republics-white- is good. Democrat- blk- is bad/dangerous to country. Our own FBI has for a number of years now warned of the growing numbers of avowed white supremacist within police forces across the country. Do you not think that these need addressing in the most strenuous and swift manner? Our politicians on the right along with their mouth pieces at Fox News should seriously be held accountable. They are fomenting hate. It seems You’re letting them off the hook here. Platforms online are radicalizing young white men, turning them into hate-filled murdering terrorists. Those platforms need to be held accountable. We’d do so if there were Muslims being radicalized, right? The willingness to harm or kill blk bodies didn’t begin with Travvon but many many years before that.. we all know this. There’s a deeper, nasty history there and it’s not been handled well. We’ve a very serious problem here. I find it quite interesting to talk about the “low” number of unarmed blk men shot and killed by officers. Both Dylan Roof and the heavily armed Payton Gendron after slaughtering numerous innocents were taken into custody.

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Clifton, that was an interesting read. However, what if, contrary to your premise, economics are not the primary driver of the increase in the crime rate? Off the top of my head, I have some alternate ideas…

1) guns. I know that guns don’t kill people, people kill people and all that. However, it is clearly the case that impulsively killing a person or people is a lot easier with a gun lying around and gun ownership seems to be increasing. I wonder if the rest of the western world is also experiencing an increase in crime, or if that is an American phenomenon. Solutions, if that is the case, are easy but probably will never happen politically.

2) there is a biological phenomenon where animals (and humans are animals) in groups become more aggressive when resources become scarce. Perhaps COVID with all of the disruptions to our daily lives has triggered a sense of scarcity, particularly in cities where people are most densely packed. If this is the cause, it should work itself out in time as life gets back to normal (assuming it ever does).

3) another biology hypothesis… apparently even hearing someone be rude to another person can activate our fight or flight instincts, increasing aggression. Not only has civility taken a serious down turn (blame social media if you like) but everywhere I go everyone seems to feel under attack. From conservatives who fear some scheme of being systematically replaced to minority groups touting increases in hate crimes on the liberal side of things. I hear something is “under attack” everywhere I turn. Do you remember the story of the off-duty police officer shooting a young man with, I think it was autism, because he bumped into him in line at Costco? People just aren’t built to be under constant stress, we act out. This would be difficult to change, but ii think doable with maybe more access to mental healthcare and paid leave…? And most importantly turning down the temperature on basically everything.

4) a counter-intuitive economic hypothesis. We know that how wealthy we feel is relative to those around us less than on an objective basis. What if the economic growth is unevenly felt and is actually increasing the feelings of not having enough among those that are not doing better? I guess that would fall under the large heading of inequality, but it’s a pretty specific kind. It would seem possible that your next door neighbor buying a new x box when you can’t pay the rent would be more upsetting than Elon Musk’s billions. I’m not sure how that hypothesis would be tested and worse if that were a cause, what a solution would be.

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If there aren’t many or adequate records being kept regarding race in law enforcement, how are we able to understand the data? From just a couple of years if The W Post?

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In Faustian Bargain Part 2 (http://greenmanhouse.org/wordpress/2022/03/26/faustian-bargain-part-2-compassionate-conservation-is-it-needed-is-it-real/), I looked at the Great Society legislation. The data indicates that despite trillions of dollars spent on these programs the poor in America are worse off. Yet we keep spending money on these programs that make the problems worse. Einstein said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. We need new innovative approaches.

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I'm a big fan of Mr. Roscoe's writing when you post his letters so thank you for posting this long analysis.

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In Reconstructing History, Part 4 (http://greenmanhouse.org/wordpress/2022/03/17/reconstructing-history-part-4-multiple-punctured-equilibriums/), I used the concepts of path dependency and punctuated equilibrium to examine this issue. Path dependency essentially states that people and organizations will continue to do the same things until an event knocks them out of the "path". These events are called punctured equilibriums. The US went through a series of punctuated equilibriums with the social justice movements and may still experience a few more. These events can significantly change the course a society pursues as well as culture. The last punctuated equilibrium event in this chain was the Virginia elections in 2021. The democrats looked to have Virginia sewn up until parents in Loudoun County stood against Critical Race Theory. The democratic candidate then said parents have no say in their children's education. This turned the governatoral race around. The question is, what happens next?

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The Massachusetts experience with charter schools, as well as Success Academy in NYC, demonstrates quite clearly that they produce quality results. There is no doubt that with any system there will be failures but that should not keep us from trying to fix the failed system of urban public education. The beauty of our federal system is that we have 50 states available to employ varieties of fixes, including charters and their regulation. Competition is critical to make the fix work.

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You say that "140 unarmed black people were shot dead by law enforcement between 2015 and 2021" and that that's about 20 per year, which you imply is unjust even if not as extreme as activists claim. Michael Brown demonstrated how being "unarmed" is not equivalent to being non-threatening, when he charged a cop much smaller than himself and tried to get his gun. So how many of the 20 per year were killed without justification? You don't say, though you imply that all of them were. Likewise, the idea that whites have half the odds of being shot by a cop as blacks do, without any discussion of the relative amount of violent crime committed by blacks compared to whites, does nothing to show that there is even an increased tendency for cops to shoot blacks, much less some racially-driven inclination. You make a lot of good points, but we need to be clear on that one, because implying that there's even a relatively small problem without providing evidence is itself a problem.

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I cannot recommend enough the collection of essays published under Robert

Woodson's editorship. I keep an informal list of books that have changed my views--and I am in my late 70's; my views are well established. I listened to this book on a long trip about a year ago. I will listen to it again, and probably buy the print edition.

The summary: The freed slaves made astounding progress during a period where laws, practices, etc. were (rightfully) are today considered incredibly racist and horrific. But, they gathered together, pulled themselves up in what is probably historically an unprecedented example of a below-lower caste group. Literacy, for example, went from less than ten percent in 1865 to 80 percent or so by the end of the 19th century. This progress continued all through Jim Crow, etc. It didn't flatten out and reverse until about the late 1960's. (The numbers are from recollection, may not be entirely accurate, but are in the ball park). For a while, I was an adjunct professor ITT tech. Now gone and unlamented. Most of the students were minority, had perfectly fine brains. But, they had been massively failed by their elementary/ high school education. While most of them were technically literate, functionally they weren't. Reading comprehension was very substandard, writing ability was essentially zero.

Historically, when there is a subjugated sub population--slaves, free or otherwise--the people that are doing the work become the skilled group. This was happening even under slavery--the enslaved blacks in the South were increasingly the skilled/artisan group. It makes total sense--the blacksmith was black, not the white master. The carpenter, farmer, etc.

There was actually a case or two where a freed slave actually bought the plantation on which he had been enslaved.

I think our societal malaise today on the subject of the black community--and many others--comes from a focus on past and present ills as opposed to past and present successes.

I have no problem with recognizing the abuses, present and past, but I think the focus should be on the successes. In the case of black history--who was that guy that bought the plantation? How did he do it?

As I said, I am old. As a child, we were taught about Booker T. Washington, George Washington Carver, etc. Now, we are tearing down statues of George Washington.

Focus on positive, you get positive. Focus on negative, you get negative. Today, we are laser focused on the bad.

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Thank you Glenn.

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Want peace in the streets? End the Drug War now! It is Unconstitutional and Tyrannical.

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Loury could not help himself: he had to find some way to attack Trump and suggest it was Trump who annoyed black folk, and of course underlying this is the fact that Trump may be responsible for much of what Loury wrote about. Notice Loury did not say a thing about the malignant effects of a prejudiced and an angry media and press, which in many cases fomented the violence that we saw across America. Nor did he get into the fact that Barack Obama and his communist minions have had much to do with the destruction of our country through the racial “identity”issues and Obamas constant complaints of racism. Obama was a divider and Biden has carried out the mission. That’s the truth. Loury is naïve to say the least.

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Loury could not help himself: he had to find some way to attack Trump and suggest it was Trump who annoyed black folk, and of course underlying this is the fact that Trump may be responsible for much of what Loury wrote about. Notice Loury did not say a thing about the malignant effects of a prejudiced and an angry media and press, which in many cases fomented the violence that we saw across America. Nor did he get into the fact that Barack Obama and his communist minions have had much to do with the destruction of our country through the racial “identity”issues and Obamas constant complaints of racism. Obama was a divider and Biden has carried out the mission. That’s the truth. Loury is naïve to say the least.

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Loury could not help himself: he had to find some way to attack Trump and suggest it was Trump who annoyed black folk, and of course underlying this is the fact that Trump may be responsible for much of what Loury wrote about. Notice Loury did not say a thing about the malignant effects of a prejudiced and an angry media and press, which in many cases fomented the violence that we saw across America. Nor did he get into the fact that Barack Obama and his communist minions have had much to do with the destruction of our country through the racial “identity”issues and Obamas constant complaints of racism. Obama was a divider and Biden has carried out the mission. That’s the truth. Loury is naïve to say the least.

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Based on the data provided, white males are 10x more likely to be shot by police than black women. I remember reading about the Obama’s having the “talk” with their daughters. Why did they do that?

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