The reparations argument always comes down to a question of fairness. Who is paying reparations to the descendants of slaves? It is unfair to tell a white person they have to pay for sins of their ancestors, but we don't actually pay for things in that sense. We don't look to balance the budget by identifying where the money will come from. For big stimulus efforts the money is just created out of thin air. If the stimulus money doesn't also stimulate production, then it could contribute to inflation. If a trillion or a couple trillion resulted in a massive decrease in crime rates, moved millions of young men from illegal activities into the jobs market, and brought private investment back to the most crime ridden parts of our large cities, it would probably be one of the best investments government ever made. And I mean that just from a dollars and cents standpoint, not even considering the humanitarian aspect. But would cash payments achieve that goal? Without changing some of the underlying factors that lead a person to drop out of school or choose crime. And is the amount in your example enough of a carrot for a young person to stay on the straight and narrow?
I am sure a one time payment would improve living standards, but wouldn't that improvement be temporary? I am not sure it would do much for long term success. Everyone under 30 with a criminal record, which is a lot of people, would have no incentive to change. Unless you have a stipulation in the plan that exempts prior convictions. A teenager who dropped out of school and is looking at either attempting to enter the lowest level of the jobs market (and likely not getting hired) or following in the footsteps of others in his neighborhood and turning to crime to pay the bills, will choose getting a job because there is $15k waiting for him in 10 years? That doesn't seem likely to me. If these kids had that kind of discipline they wouldn't have dropped out of school and wouldn't need the $15k to succeed. Delaying gratification is not common in the poorest areas of the country. Are you thinking the fact the country has acknowledged and paid reparations will change the way poor black people feel about the country? That they might feel less like outcasts and be more motivated to work within the rules of society?
Certainly some adults receiving lump sum payments would use the money to make positive changes in their lives and improve their futures. We probably just disagree on how many. I think you have more confidence in peoples ability to manage money than I do. Poor people, for the most part, have zero experience handling money. They would have no idea how to turn $15-30k into a permanent change of lifestyle. There was a study done some years ago that showed 60-75% of professional athletes were broke within 5 years of retirement. And thats starting with 7-8 figure sums. I would guess the money would be more helpful, long term, to middle class people with steady jobs. Maybe to pay off college debt, put into a retirement account or, like you said, start a business. Too many poor people are in such a deep hole with regards to marketable skills that $15k wonтАЩt get them out.
A 15 year old in the hood is watching his peers get shot and go to prison on a regular basis, yet the lure of quick money is still enough to turn him toward that same lifestyle. If death and prison are not enough of a stick, then I donтАЩt see $15k, to be delivered in 11 years, being enough of a carrot to keep him in school or in the legal workforce. I agree that incentivizing young men to finish school and get into the workforce is a worthy goal, I just donтАЩt think $15k at 26 would achieve it.
I have serious concerns about the governments ability to do it, but could you imagine what that same $1 trillion would do if put toward improving schools, after school programs, and trade schools in the poorest areas of the country? In theory it would be amazing. In reality, half would be lost to waste and fraud.
The reparations argument always comes down to a question of fairness. Who is paying reparations to the descendants of slaves? It is unfair to tell a white person they have to pay for sins of their ancestors, but we don't actually pay for things in that sense. We don't look to balance the budget by identifying where the money will come from. For big stimulus efforts the money is just created out of thin air. If the stimulus money doesn't also stimulate production, then it could contribute to inflation. If a trillion or a couple trillion resulted in a massive decrease in crime rates, moved millions of young men from illegal activities into the jobs market, and brought private investment back to the most crime ridden parts of our large cities, it would probably be one of the best investments government ever made. And I mean that just from a dollars and cents standpoint, not even considering the humanitarian aspect. But would cash payments achieve that goal? Without changing some of the underlying factors that lead a person to drop out of school or choose crime. And is the amount in your example enough of a carrot for a young person to stay on the straight and narrow?
I am sure a one time payment would improve living standards, but wouldn't that improvement be temporary? I am not sure it would do much for long term success. Everyone under 30 with a criminal record, which is a lot of people, would have no incentive to change. Unless you have a stipulation in the plan that exempts prior convictions. A teenager who dropped out of school and is looking at either attempting to enter the lowest level of the jobs market (and likely not getting hired) or following in the footsteps of others in his neighborhood and turning to crime to pay the bills, will choose getting a job because there is $15k waiting for him in 10 years? That doesn't seem likely to me. If these kids had that kind of discipline they wouldn't have dropped out of school and wouldn't need the $15k to succeed. Delaying gratification is not common in the poorest areas of the country. Are you thinking the fact the country has acknowledged and paid reparations will change the way poor black people feel about the country? That they might feel less like outcasts and be more motivated to work within the rules of society?
Your eligibility standards seem pretty rational.
Certainly some adults receiving lump sum payments would use the money to make positive changes in their lives and improve their futures. We probably just disagree on how many. I think you have more confidence in peoples ability to manage money than I do. Poor people, for the most part, have zero experience handling money. They would have no idea how to turn $15-30k into a permanent change of lifestyle. There was a study done some years ago that showed 60-75% of professional athletes were broke within 5 years of retirement. And thats starting with 7-8 figure sums. I would guess the money would be more helpful, long term, to middle class people with steady jobs. Maybe to pay off college debt, put into a retirement account or, like you said, start a business. Too many poor people are in such a deep hole with regards to marketable skills that $15k wonтАЩt get them out.
A 15 year old in the hood is watching his peers get shot and go to prison on a regular basis, yet the lure of quick money is still enough to turn him toward that same lifestyle. If death and prison are not enough of a stick, then I donтАЩt see $15k, to be delivered in 11 years, being enough of a carrot to keep him in school or in the legal workforce. I agree that incentivizing young men to finish school and get into the workforce is a worthy goal, I just donтАЩt think $15k at 26 would achieve it.
I have serious concerns about the governments ability to do it, but could you imagine what that same $1 trillion would do if put toward improving schools, after school programs, and trade schools in the poorest areas of the country? In theory it would be amazing. In reality, half would be lost to waste and fraud.