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Robert Redd's avatar

Change does not happen overnight, but change does happen. Young Black men went from more likely to be imprisoned than in college, to more likely to be in college than in prison.

Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of American men, but sustained declines in imprisonment in recent years raise questions about how incarceration is shaping current generations. This study makes three primary contributions to a fuller understanding of the contemporary landscape of incarceration in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incarceration rate dropped by 44%, and notable declines in Black male imprisonment were evident in all 50 states. Second, our life table analysis demonstrates marked declines in the lifetime risks of incarceration. For Black men, the lifetime risk of incarceration declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We estimate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional experiences of young adulthood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison. Our results suggest that prison has played a smaller role in the institutional landscape for the most recent generation compared to the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10662370/

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BDarn1's avatar

What is being studied here is simply the judicial outcome of criminal behavior, as determined by the Courts. What is of interest is not the rate at which criminal behavior results in incarceration (given the amount of political pressure applied to reduce incarceration, this result is not surprising), but the rate of criminal behavior itself.

If we look at historical homicide trends, as a for instance, we see about a 10% decline over that 20 year period ending in 2019...so a concomitant 10% decline in incarcerations would be entirely predictable. If we assume that your 44% decline is accurate and appropriate if applied to the crime of homicide, then the additional 34% decline would seem rather dubious wouldn't it? Either dubious from a 'quality of data' of perspective...or dubious from a 'justice applied perspective' (potentially even including criminal arrest rate decline, if more murders are unsolved).

If we look at historical homicide arrest rates, we see similar precipitous declines over that time period.... followed however, by a significant increase in 2020, in which we went from 4.9 murders per 100K population in 2019 to 6.42 in 2020 (a 29% INCREASE). https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate

We must also note that even though the homicide victimization rate & arrest rate for Blacks across those 21 years (through 2020) declined, they still remain at a level about 5X that of Whites. https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/racial-homicide-disparities-since

As for what this particular trend snapshot means for Black youth in terms of "lifetime risk"...who knows? The model which tells us the risk has markedly declined is based upon the 1999-2019 rate being maintained and/or continually dropping (we'd have to read the study to find out which assumption they ran with when performing 50-60 year lifetime trend projection). But if the 29% uptick in 2020 remains constant, the model conclusions become entirely fallacious.

In general, I'd trust 'lifetime extrapolations' about as far as we can throw them.

And college graduation rates? What we do know is that "Since Fall 2010, Black student enrollment has declined from 3.04 million to 2.38 million (in 2020), a 22% decrease". Hard to see that as a trend which somehow increases the probability of college graduation, even if murder is declining. https://pnpi.org/factsheets/black-students/

[And a small housekeeping note: always good if you put quotation marks around quotes. As you know your entire 2nd paragraph is a copy/paste of the Abstract]

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Robert Redd's avatar

The take home message to me is that more Black young men are in college than prison.

I see a decline in poverty as well.

I live on the sunny side of the street and look for things that can continue to push for progress. I don’t see an overnight process.

Take for example a recent dispute among two rappers

Rappers have a history of gunplay. Today Kendrick Lamar and Drake, two rappers are handling things with lyrics and music shows. Lamar did a recent concert where Crips and Bloods were enjoying the entertainment in peace. Will this be a lasting trend? Probably, not because there a some knuckleheads ready to blast away. The Lamar-Drake example does point out that there are non violent ways to disagree. Hopefully, this will stick with some young minds.

The decrease in poverty, decrease in homicides and violent crime, an increased enrollment in college are signs of Black culture shining through. It is amusing that recently the Tennessee state legislature called the head of Tennessee State University on the carpet because so many Black students were applying for placement that enrollment spaces were exceeded. The Conservatives in the legislature were upset that the Black students didn’t want to go to the majority white University of Tennessee. Instead of fully funding the HBCU, the Conservatives blasted the HBCU president. Another example of Conservatives failing to craft policies that benefit the Black community.

When Dr. Loury talks about the flaws of Black culture, you have no problem. When I point out the positives of Black culture, you feign ignorance. You post principles of Conservatism which are abandoned by Conservatives at their convenience. I will point out the 7 principles of Kwanzaa jokingly as the guide for the Black community.

We continue to talk past each other. It is of no importance. While you stand on the lawn yelling, Black people are working to improve things.

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BDarn1's avatar

Who is yelling?

Do you typically confuse factual disagreement with yelling?

And yes, it's good that more Blacks are in college than in the Correctional system somewhere ... just as it's good that more Whites are in college than in the correctional system somewhere. That count, btw, is about 2.3 M in college and 1.7M in the correctional system for Blacks....and about 10M in college and 2.6M in the correctional system for Whites.

And how on earth do you know I have no problem when Glenn talks about so-called 'Black Culture'? It's a vague and ill-defined thing even when Glenn uses the phrase.

In truth people referencing 'Black Culture' seems much more like the 5 blind men describing an elephant than anything else. In your mind I'm sure 'Black Culture' means something. I'm also sure it means something in Glenn's mind...but I'm not at all convinced that it's the same something, particularly when you yourself find it impossible to define. What is 'White Culture' for that matter? And what's the difference between the two?

If two young boys were raised side by side, neighbor to neighbor, in some small midwestern town...and one was Black and the other White....would they each have a separate culture? And if so, where did it come from? What distinguishes one from the other?

And who is 'feigning ignorance' about the positives of this this thing you can't define?

Certainly we all recognize the positives of life, including any number of things like family, love, children, grandchildren, Xmas dinner, a good cup of coffee, chocolate cake, a big bowl of ice cream (though I'd have to say Andy's Frozen Custard is is probably even higher on my list of life positives). Is this somehow different if I'm Black vs. if I'm White?

My friend, PRINCIPLES, by their very nature are abandoned regularly by everyone. That's why the divorce rate hovers around 50%. That's why murder and rape and theft abound. The tendency to abandon principles when they become binding and inconvenient is an entirely human phenomenon and is not owned by either Left or Right...Male or Female...Black or White... Short or Tall, you name it. As any priest as he leaves the Confessional can tell you: the abandonment of principles is a daily occurrence.

One last note....these generic declarations of yours (like "Black people are working to improve things." are meaningless. And they do not serve you well. They convey nothing but a narrow kind of racist pride; it is not a becoming look. Should we equally say 'White people are working to improve things."? What about Brown people? What about tall and short people? What about men & women? Should we say, "Men are working to improve things."? Such foolish & pointless assertions imply, over and over again, that the converse must not be true when in fact the converse is always true. Men are working to improve things...and, equally, women are working to improve things. You'd think,with all these people 'working to improve things' that things would actually be improving wouldn't you?

Perhaps we might conclude that not everyone is, indeed, working to improve things?? You think that might be a possibility?

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Robert Redd's avatar

You use a great deal of words to so little of consequence. I focus on the Black community helping the Black community because as with the Fearless Fund, waiting on others to hep is futile.

Edit to add:

When Southern Conservatives controlled the rule of law, discriminatory laws harmed the Black community. The Kwanzaa principal of self-determination would advise resisting the unjust law.

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BDarn1's avatar

At last we agree!

Unless you've fallen, and can't get up... waiting on someone else to help you is not just futile, it's childish and silly.

As a matter of fact, what you describe is the very definition of 'adult' -- having the responsibility for and the ability to ... care for one's self.

Best wishes on that road to learn!

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Robert Redd's avatar

Again, you remain amusing. I’m feeling great about the ongoing progress made by the Black community. My concern is with the white community ready to elect a felon and sexual assaulter President. I see them forcing religious documents on students in Louisiana, removing books from Houston schools, and cutting art and culture grants in Florida.

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spiral8802's avatar

Sorry Glen, but the Hispanics made your idea redundant.

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Will Keys's avatar

I am an ex-Rhodesian (now Zimbabwe) born and bred but now a nationalised Australian. Glen read my comments to the subsribers and I noted he guffawed when reading my comment, I quote: "Rhodesians didn't get everything right". Glenn doesn't know how much he doesn't know. The reason I am a Glenn Show subscriber is because I grew up with black Africans and like most white Rhodesians we had an interest in seeing blacks succeed. Succeed on their own terms and by their own efforts. Make no error this process was well on its way, it was a matter of years before voting parity with whites was achieved and thereafter it would have been unstoppable before blacks were voted into power based on MERIT. Merit is the answer. I watch the Glen Show because I want to understand why African-Americans struggle so much. I can tell you that blacks, Jews and progressives on the Glenn Show don't have a clue about the real state of affairs in Africa.

If they did they would drop the 'African' moniker and be satisfied being called 'American'. They would realise that nobody owes them a living and that a hand-up is far better then a hand-out. They would return to family values and a belief in God. They would disavow black popular culture and become traditional value Americans. To be honest they have no alternative nobody is going to save them but themselves. Finally, they should abandon the corrupt Democrat Party and vote for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 General Election. Trump is not a racist he has a merit mentality.

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Jun 21, 2024
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Will Keys's avatar

Ihsan Al-Din, you will be forced to face reality. DJT will be reelected POTUS and you will remain disallusioned and resentful. You are entitled to your opinion but people like you are a problem because you would deny freedom of speech to others.

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BDarn1's avatar

Exactly right.

The world is hierarchical; reality is hierarchical. It can't be otherwise. From the simplest to the most complex of things, whoever is smarter, tougher, faster, stronger....whoever works harder, has the greater endurance, the most dedication....whoever produces the greater result, the higher achievement... THEY are the ones who will consistently succeed. And in succeeding, they will rise.

They will rise to higher office, more responsible positions, and greater incomes. They will graduate from more prestigious universities, having mastered more demanding courses of study and they will lead while the rest of us follow. And it doesn't matter if we're talking about Cardiac Surgeons, Electricians, Plumbers, Statisticians, Designers, Inventory Managers, Truck Drivers, Quarterbacks, Mountain Climbers, or Assembly Line Workers... there will be a natural and inevitable sorting out by Quality, Effectivity, Efficiency, as measured by the things they have achieved.

At the top of every heap we find the very best because that is the result produced by Competition.

That is why, when we watch the NBA, we can be assured that we are watching the best BBall players in the world. That is why, when we're wheeled into the Operating Room with an ailing heart that what we want to hear is that our Cardiac Surgery Team is World Class.

Let us also note: when we say BEST, we mean best...when we say WORLD CLASS, we mean world class....as measured by an individual's ability to produce against the highest, toughest, most demanding Performance Quality Standards we have...and not as measured by cosmetics, skin color, genital configuration, or shoe size.

We've spent the last half-century pretending reality doesn't matter; pretending that when we want a thing to be true, it must therefore be true. We've passed who-knows-how-many laws....and started who-knows-how-many programs....and spent God Knows how much money trying to convince ourselves that when we tap our ruby slippers together 3 times, we'll be the next Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Michael Jordan, Glenn Loury (Abracadabra!).

But that's not happening. It can't happen because REALITY always intervenes; and reality tells us: you've gotta be better, tougher, faster, smarter, stronger not by feel-good fiat but by hard work and achievement. There is no other way.

God save us from a world in which our bridge-builders, doctors, and engineers are chosen not by talent, but because they make the DIE numbers look better.

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

"Developing our capacities requires that parents and communities work to nurture their children’s abilities from infancy onward, so that when the time comes for them to meet the challenges of school, work, and life, they’ll be ready and eager for it."

That sounds familiar. Oh, yeah, Walter Willliams and Thomas Sowell have been saying this for decades. Why haven't we been DOING this for decades? If we had, we'd be way ahead of the curve right now, instead of pointing fingers and laying blame.

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BDarn1's avatar

Very true.

Of course we haven't been doing this for decades because doing it is hard work.

Myself, I would love to be able to play world-class guitar....but that would require me to spend an ungodly amount of time actually learning how. Yuck! Who wants to do that? I just want to wake-up tomorrow and sound like Eric Clapton (or Mark Knopfler ... I'm not picky).

Add to that a half century of incentives to NOT do that, and here we are: still saying the same thing, playing the same sad song.

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Jun 20, 2024
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Robert Redd's avatar

We just saw the celebration of graduation at colleges and universities across the country. We saw Dr Daniel Black give the most inspiring graduation speech at Clark Atlanta University. Black culture celebrates education. So-called Conservatives only see the Black community as pathologic. Conservatives talk about low IQs while they work to remove books that encourage Black youth from school libraries. We see Black parents show up to protest the assault. Black culture realizes education is important.

You are correct in noting that many Conservatives are ready to elect an authoritarian. Conservatives offer criticism, but offer no solid policies that would aid Black communities.

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BDarn1's avatar

Robert, welcome back!

Again, which part of Conservatism don't you support: the rule of law, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the sanctity of human life, limited government, fiscal responsibility, individual rights as guaranteed by the Constitution?

Do you not believe that policies derived from these principles "aid the Black community"... just as they would aid the nation?

What kind of solid, reasonable policies would you suggest....or do you only offer criticism?

And exactly how does Black Culture (whatever that is) celebrate education? Is this celebration reflected in higher graduation rates? Higher board scores? Higher college admission & graduation rates? Higher GPA's? Lower suspension rates? Lower drop out rates? I'm not quite sure how you define 'celebrating education'?

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Robert Redd's avatar

Strict Conservative “Rule of Law” was changed by Blacks who taught themselves to read, fled enslavement, fostered slave rebellions, fought for voting rights, and demanded entry into taxpayer supported public schools. Black culture fought against injustice.

Strict Conservatism would have supported beating or killing a Black man or woman who spoke the truth. Black culture fought for freedom of speech.

Strict Conservatism supported handing out edited “Slave Bibles” that told the enslaved to obey their masters. Black culture fought for access to the full message of not being a slave to any man.

Conservatives supported lynch laws and raping of Black women. Black cultural activists like Ida B Wells fought Conservatism’s lack of belief in the sanctity of life. Today’s Conservatives are willing to put the lives of pregnant women with complications at risk in service to “the rule of law”.

Conservative legislators are dictating what books my child can access in school libraries. Conservative legislators are working access to the ballot. I don’t equate Conservatives with limited government. I don’t see Conservatives supporting my individual rights.

The joy seen on the college campuses as Black families celebrate their graduates. At Morehouse, Biden got to hear the valedictorian use his free speech to call for a ceasefire. At Spelman, Angela Bassett praised the young female graduates. At Clark Atlanta, Dr. Daniel Black gave a speech that inspired the graduates who will continue to improve the Black community.

I see the beauty of Black culture. I see the identity administration working to improve the financing of HBCUs. I see Conservatives working to remove books from school libraries to replace them with detention classrooms.

I see glory in Black culture and despair when Conservatives enter the picture.

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BDarn1's avatar

I'm sorry Rob, you're not very well informed...nor are you living in the present. Whatever you believe a 'Conservative' was in 1800....that has little or nothing to do with what a Conservative truly is today.

There are no Conservatives who support beating or killing Black people who speak the truth.

There are no so-called 'strict Conservatives' today (or in the last several generations) who have handed out 'Slave Bibles'

There are no so-called Conservatives today who support lynch laws or the raping of Black women. (Honestly, where do you get this nonsense?)

Nor are there Conservatives who wish to put the lives of pregnant women at risk, in service to the rule of law. Rather the exact opposite, as Conservatives do believe in the sanctity of life...even if that life is in the womb.

As for what is and is not in a school library...again, you are sadly misinformed. 99% of all books ever published are NOT in any school library. The question is not, "Are books inaccessible in school libraries?" Rather the question is which particular 1% of the total books available deserve a place in school libraries?

If you don't see Conservatives working to limit the Federal Government, or in support of the individual rights guaranteed by the Constitution, then you just not paying attention.

But again, what is Black Culture (or, for that matter, what is White Culture) ...and how does it celebrate Education? Which particular social/educational measure demonstrates this 'celebration'? The fact that a handful of people show-up for graduation ceremonies tells us, actually, nothing.

I would encourage you to enlarge your window of perception. You are not seeing what is so clearly before you. You see only what you want to see., my friend. You are missing so very much.

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Robert Redd's avatar

My window of perception is very clear. Modern Conservatives fight against access to books, voting rights, etc. Modern Conservatives are adversaries.

My name is not Rob.

Edit to add:

We can continue to go around in circles. You post some words and say the represent Conservatism. You bring up rule of law. I see Conservatives calling people who assaulted law enforcement and threatened the lives of legislators, “heroes”. There are many other examples of actions taken by Conservatives that have no connection to the words they say they follow.

I default to Black culture, a critical mass of people working to improve conditions in the Black community. I also default to Zora Neal Hurston’s “all skinfolk ain’t my kinfolk.” I celebrate the graduates. When a Conservative does what is in their nature and tries to steal my joy, I laugh and feel truly sorry for them.

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BDarn1's avatar

Sorry Rob, I guess you go by Robert? Bobby? Does it really matter?

In any case your window of perception is, indeed, seriously clouded.

We are talking about Conservatism. The fact that you can find someone that you label (or perhaps they self-label) as 'Conservative' does not mean they are Conservative...nor does it mean they understand or represent the primary principles of Conservatism.

Further, you cannot argue from the individual specific to the general....nor does the fact that an individual has a given quality mean that a group he or she is a part of, also has that quality. The mess you find yourself stuck inside is called the Fallacy of Composition. You should stop digging yourself deeper into that hole.

The principles I post are, in fact, a central part of Conservatism.

If you'd like to argue Conservatism, please feel free. But arguing that you know a guy...or saw a guy...or heard a guy say something crazy or do something stupid (who also calls himself Conservative) doesn't tell us a single stinking thing about Conservatism. Like me telling you, I saw a redhead eat a worm one day....therefore all redheads eat worms. That is simply irrational.

And you can default all you like to Black culture... but I find it amazing that you cannot define the thing you tell us you're 'defaulting to'. And what does it mean to 'default to a culture' anyway?

Bobby, my friend, you simply don't know what you're talking about. But clearly you're emotionally tied to these 'True Beliefs' of yours (in the very best Eric Hoffer sense) that you obviously cannot define. Sadly, you can't seem to escape them either.

No one, least of all myself, is trying to 'steal your joy' (whatever that means....truly, do you always speak in catchphrase?). Nor is 'Joy Stealing' a part of the Conservative philosophy.

Best wishes, my friend; I'm afraid you'll need them.

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BDarn1's avatar

What on earth are you talking about?

"Many of the White conservatives want Fascism"? Which White conservatives? What do you define as Fascism?

And which part of "current Conservative practive" are you effing, and why? The part that calls for the rule of law, individual rights, freedom of speech, freedom of religion? limited government? fiscal responsibility? Which of those do you hate?

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Jun 20, 2024
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BDarn1's avatar

Sorry... obviously you are just loony and filled with rage. Not much any of us can do to help.

Good luck!

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

Huh? You sound racist to me. Did I miss your point?

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Robert Redd's avatar

Yes, you missed his point. Educational achievement is celebrated in Black culture.

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

Huh? Your previous statement is chock full of racist statements against 'conservatives'. If you had only commented about blacks and their celebration of education, I would have had nothing to say.

If you can read the words you wrote, and not see the blatant racism, then there's your problem.

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Robert Redd's avatar

How is a statement about Conservatives racist? Tim Scott, Byron Donalds, Ben Carson, Herschel Walker, and Candace Owens are Conservatives.

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BDarn1's avatar

Please...enough.

Candace Owens is not handing out Slave Bibles. Candace does not support lynch laws or the rape of Black women. Candace does not want to kill Black people who speak the truth. And Candace, in fact, fights against injustice every day.

Listen to yourself; you're not making sense.

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Robert Redd's avatar

You said

“Your previous statement is chock full of racist statements against 'conservatives'. If you had only commented about blacks and their celebration of education, I would have had nothing to say.”

Your blather about Candace Owens is not a response. You said I made racist statements. I pointed out actions taken by Conservatives. I gave historical and current examples of actions taken by Conservatives.

Black culture, led enslaved people to revolt against slavery and volunteer to join the Union Army. Black culture led the fight for Civil Rights. Black culture is fighting back against the assault on the Black community by Conservatives. Modern Conservatives are not allies of the Black community.

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