What We Know (and Don't Know) about Homicide in Philly
Clifton Roscoe enters the fray
Our series about violent crime in Philadelphia continues today with a contribution from the one and only Clifton Roscoe. Readers will recall that things kicked off with Rav Arora’s guest post, “The Record-Breaking Homicide Wave in Philadelphia,” which elicited a critical comment from Current Affairs editor Nathan Robinson, and a subsequent response from Rav.
While Clifton isn’t taking sides in that debate, he brings some data to the table that will, I think, enrich the conversation. While, as Clifton notes, we still do not know definitively what is driving homicide rates in cities like Philadelphia, we do need to acknowledge that there is something very unsettling going on. There are surely some contributing factors to the violence that remain to be discovered, and we need to figure out what they are quickly before too much more damage is done.
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The body count in Philadelphia hits new highs every day. Former mayor Michael Nutter provided homicide numbers going back to 1960. The previous high was 500 homicides in 1990. There were 499 homicides last year.
I've decided to stay out of the Rav Arora – Nathan Robinson debate. There's not nearly enough data to blame all of the increase on Krasner, Mayor Jim Kenney, Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw, and other elected officials, but something bad is happening in Philly. Whatever city leaders are doing to quell the violence isn't working. The black community is paying a big price for this since black folks account for 82 percent of Philly's homicide victims, according to this news report. Moreover, only about a third of Philly's black homicides are solved vs. 63 percent of homicides involving white victims. Here's an excerpt from the article:
A review of the 1,316 homicides in Philadelphia between January 1, 2018 and March 22, 2021 shows:
6% of Philadelphia murder victims are White. Police made an arrest in 63% of those cases.
82% of Philadelphia murder victims are Black. Police made an arrest in 33% of those cases.
11% of Philadelphia murder victims are Hispanic. Police made an arrest in 38% of those cases.
Less than 1% of Philadelphia murder victims are Asian. Police made an arrest in 55% of those cases.
When asked why arrest rates lag when a murder victim is a person of color, the head of the Philadelphia Police homicide unit cited witness cooperation. “We need the cooperation of the community,” Capt. Jason Smith said. “Without the cooperation of the community, we are not going to be able to effectively do our jobs.”
Nobody can blame Krasner for a lack of witness cooperation, unless they're convinced that Krasner's policies have led black folks to believe that the potential for an arrest isn't worth the risks (social and physical) associated with being a “snitch.” That notion predates Krasner.
Where Krasner is vulnerable, however, is the question of whether his approach to being a prosecutor, along with reform efforts from other elected officials and the relatively new commissioner who was brought in from Portland, have led officers to be less aggressive. I wouldn't blame officers for that. Why risk your career to reduce the odds of black folks killing black folks when the very folks whose lives you might save are hostile to you? Why risk getting on their bad side when it could cost you your job and pension?
Roland Fryer's work shows that consent decrees lead to more violent crime. His analysis seems to confirm “The Ferguson Effect,” versions of which have played out in many cities with reform-oriented elected officials.
In addition, the number of police killings has been remarkably consistent since analysts began keeping track of them. The Washington Post's database shows this, as does a tally from an organization called Mapping Police Violence. Here’s a graphic:
Homicide data from places like Philadelphia and Baltimore speak for themselves. Michael Nutter's data shows that things began to take a turn for the worse around 2015. Data from Baltimore shows that the number of homicides went above 300 after Marilyn Mosby made her famous Freddie Gray speech—April 2015 is when Freddie Gray died, and Mosby's speech came within a day or two of his death—and have stayed there since then. Here are some numbers from the Wikipedia:
This year, according to the Baltimore Police Department, there have been 327 homicides in Baltimore as of December 18, so the string remains unbroken. The overarching point is that reforms haven't reduced the number of police killings, but they may have contributed to the homicide spike. Nobody should be happy with either outcome.
To make a long story short, Krasner is unlikely to be part of the solution when it comes to violent crime in Philly. Neither are many of Philly's elected officials. Maybe I'm being unfair to her, maybe her hands are tied by her bosses, but Commissioner Outlaw doesn't seem to be part of the solution either. Krasner, however, is a lightning rod. Folks I talk to in Philly were pleased when Michael Nutter called him out for denying there's a violent crime crisis.
All the above ties back to the question of whether efforts to help Omar are good for Omar and Black America. The answer seems to be “no” when it comes to policing and criminal justice reforms. Things haven't gotten better since BLM and the reform movement gained momentum. Homicides and other violent crimes statistics from many cities show that things have gotten worse. That shouldn't surprise anybody, since the movement was based upon a false narrative. Somebody way smarter than me will have to identify and quantify the effects at play. It seems obvious that “The Ferguson Effect” is a factor. We're seeing too many experienced officers leaving law enforcement and too few people wanting to pursue it as a career. We're also starting to see cities “refund” the police, raise pay, offer signing bonuses to new recruits, offer retention bonuses to current officers, etc.
That said, there's not enough data to say for sure what's driving the violent crime spike, so folks can debate this till the cows come home without having to rethink their positions.
Best regards,
Clifton Roscoe
Can anyone including the kid Rav explain why violent knife crime in London is spiking, similar culture (without the same level of culture wars) similar demographics, economics and most importantly instead of defunding the police the conservatives have been refunding the police. If gun culture was a thing in the UK, there would be murder spikes? And yet there is this claim that a lack of policing has resulted in a crime wave. That doesn't seem to be consonant with the argument being made by American conservatives. I suspect the instinct will be to claim different country and culture, but the arguments being made are data driven, so that doesn't seem to be relevant at all. More policing has lead to more violent crime in a wealthy country whilst the argument in philly is less policing has had the same effect. I realize there is a temptation to navel gaze and only look at America but that seems problematic to me because whatever is happening transcends
Interesting idea about dispersal. Let me tell you something I know about that personally. I grew up in Chicago and lived most of my life a hundred miles south in Champaign, Illinois. 30 miles east of us is Danville, Illinois. Twenty-five years ago or so, Chicago closed down its remaining housing projects, which were almost exclusively black. They had been a disaster, and of course gangs ran rampant there. Many thousands of former residents moved elsewhere. Some of them moved to Vermilion County where Danville and some other smaller towns received new residents from the south side of Chicago with readymade gang affiliations. Crime skyrocketed. Chicago has lots of murders, but is not number one per capita in Illinois. Danville is. In fact, Danville is the eleventh most dangerous city in the country in violent crime.