Can anyone including the kid Rav explain why violent knife crime in London is spiking, similar culture (without the same level of culture wars) similar demographics, economics and most importantly instead of defunding the police the conservatives have been refunding the police. If gun culture was a thing in the UK, there would be murder spikes? And yet there is this claim that a lack of policing has resulted in a crime wave. That doesn't seem to be consonant with the argument being made by American conservatives. I suspect the instinct will be to claim different country and culture, but the arguments being made are data driven, so that doesn't seem to be relevant at all. More policing has lead to more violent crime in a wealthy country whilst the argument in philly is less policing has had the same effect. I realize there is a temptation to navel gaze and only look at America but that seems problematic to me because whatever is happening transcends
Interesting idea about dispersal. Let me tell you something I know about that personally. I grew up in Chicago and lived most of my life a hundred miles south in Champaign, Illinois. 30 miles east of us is Danville, Illinois. Twenty-five years ago or so, Chicago closed down its remaining housing projects, which were almost exclusively black. They had been a disaster, and of course gangs ran rampant there. Many thousands of former residents moved elsewhere. Some of them moved to Vermilion County where Danville and some other smaller towns received new residents from the south side of Chicago with readymade gang affiliations. Crime skyrocketed. Chicago has lots of murders, but is not number one per capita in Illinois. Danville is. In fact, Danville is the eleventh most dangerous city in the country in violent crime.
Seems to me that we know precisely what worked to dramatically reduce violent crime rates starting in NYC in the early 90s (proactive data-based policing based upon “broken windows theory”, COMSTAT, “stop & frisk”, etc), which resulted in tens of thousands of actual black lives saved across America. Now that we’re abandoning those proven policing methods in deference to an ideology that suggests that violent predators are actually victims of oppressive social structures, and therefore aren’t culpable for their crimes, we’re reaping a fresh harvest of violence and evil disproportionately impacting the black community. What else is there to understand? Where is the outrage?!!
A good point, nicely set out by Mr Roscoe. I don’t know the full ins and outs of the Philadelphia picture - but I am absolutely convinced that no form of crime was ever reduced by making the consequences of that crime less deterring, and the investigation of it less thorough.
Once you cede ‘control’ of a neighbourhood, you inevitably sacrifice willing public interaction, no matter how much each individual resident might wish to see excessive behaviour reined in. Omerta always trumps civic duty, when there is a credible (even probable) likelihood of violent reprisal against anyone coming forward.
Putting politics aside (as if that were even momentarily possible), you can not send out a poorly motivated and frequently scapegoated Police force - undermined at the highest levels of Police, judicial and political institutions by those with random personal agendas - and expect them to make headway against huge entrenched criminal networks who are committed to playing for keeps.
Once in place, the momentum of such a crime surge can only ever be broken by a determined, united, resolute counter-push by ALL the supposed forces of order - thereby empowering the decent moral majority in those communities to come SAFELY into play, and also make their viewpoints heard.
I find the notion of reduced or less effective law enforcement to be the cause of a greater number of murders a confusion. Generally, people do not murder because of a lack of police presence. They murder for all sorts of reasons, usually status driven. People that don't murder have reasons, some more than others, some more adept at accessing those reason in the moment, why murder is a terrible awful idea. Law enforcement is extra help in stimulating that deterring thought for the more dim and/or violent. The best reason to not murder is because its a bad bad idea. That's it. Not complicated.
Law enforcement is a boundary. The boundary should have been strengthened. Christ, Ferguson was a media scam in itself, let alone an "effect". "This is such a typical confusion today seduced by sufficiently misdirecting the conversation, anchoring it somewhere in a nonsense debate.
BLM and other far-left Marxist or postmodern ideologies are what they are. Evil seductions fronting virtue, intimidating your image if self-virtue, to cover for criminal rights violations, particularly property rights. The interesting question is how do these soft to hard terrorist ideologies get any sympathy while barely if at all hiding their ugly roots? Why is finding inspiration in Mao not a red flag, no pun intended. Support for these thugs, or institutional groomings is no different than supporting the IRA or PLO, and I come from an Irish Catholic family.
Popper, Hayek, Darwin cures Foucault, Marx and Marcuse.
Every "justice system" reform I can think of has made it more difficult to apprehend, hold, try, convict and incarcerate people who commit crimes. It seems to me that these facts along with a lack of respect for the property rights of individuals and wide spread disrespect for law enforcement (and other forms of authority) is what is driving the increase in crime, violent and otherwise.
This is a small thing. The Black Lives Matter movement has a kitchen sink mentality. Black, Brown, and Trans lives all seem to matter in this movement. Are all of these “identities” on the same team? The tie between the black homicide rate and the intersectional feminist argument of the proverbial “trans women of color” is more related than one might first suppose. The list of names of the dead read every November 20th on the trans day of remembrance are almost exclusively black and brown names. It’s a fallacy to nitpick crimes, murder is murder, but there are those who have made it a cause to discuss this particular issue. Perhaps this demographic of gay women would be interested in the solutions presented by the black guys if the argument were presented in a certain way that zeroed in on the particular ideology they have chosen to follow. This is an argument for meeting people on their own terms. Though the trans women of color murder stats are a drop in the bucket of the overall issue, there is a chance to attract some flies with honey. This isn’t really in the realm of academia or research, but in way we talk about these arguments. Those who are not against us, are with us.
Philadelphia police have stopped pulling people fro traffic violations. Also not mentioned in your data is kit guns were stopped. These were ghost guns entering Philadelphia in Kit form. You can buy a gun kit without going through a background check, or registering the fire arm . There are thousands of these guns in Philadelphia. Some from Philly was buying the guns by the duffel bag full at gun shows in Oaks and Morgantown. Philadelphia has very strict gun laws but Krasner lets people go. Philadelphia wants gun laws to change in the entire state so Philadelphians don't kill themselves. That attitude is very selfish and one that shows people there have no self restraint, tolerance, empathy, and selfish.
As a police officer in a major metro area, I am enjoying this ongoing conversation, especially the balanced analysis. There are truly no easy answers. On the question of whether the DA is responsible for the spike: you noted the homicide captain’s quote about needing the community’s cooperation to solve homicides (implying that the black community is much less likely to cooperate), and argued that this effect cannot be linked to Krasner. Certainly the “no snitches” culture plays a part in this. However, in my experience, other than those in gangs (for whom snitching can be fatal), a community’s willingness to cooperate is far more strongly related to the level of trust in the justice system. A person who has cooperated with the police once, only to find their assailant/abuser released back on the street for whatever reason, is almost certain to not cooperate the next time. Why should they? We are asking them to take a great risk and then abusing that trust by not putting that dangerous criminal away. And the average citizen does not distinguish whether the person is back on the street due to ineffective investigation, low bail, weak prosecution, or a political catch-and-release policy.
In addition to the negative effects on citizen cooperation, these kind of effects are also devastating to the morale of officers, who sometimes put their lives and/or careers on the line to arrest dangerous suspects only to see them back out in the street. It’s a recipe for de-policing, which as we know does affect crime rates.
It is worth noting that Krasner got re-elected this spring with close to 70% of the vote and won a contested primary early by about the same margin. I can only conclude that the good voters of Philadelphia like and approve of his policies and the job he is doing. Or are indifferent to the murders because they do not affect most of them
When you talk about black on black murders, you are talking about gangs. When you talk about unsolved murders you are talking about gangs. When you talk about uncooperative witnesses you are talking about gangs. You can't talk about gangs without mentioning the word "gangs" on a regular basis.
The fact that we have to rely on The Washington Post or Mapping Police Violence for data on police violence now something like 8 years after Furgeson is unacceptable. Where is the US Dept of Justice? Why is there no hue and cry to get some factual information on an issue that is tearing the country apart? Why have no prominent Black politicians insisted on a Congressional investigation into whether or not racist police in this country are actually targeting and killing young black males? And to what specific scope does the problem exist? Does it happen rarely or regularly? Talk about an epistemological crisis! Why is getting to the bottom of this issue so difficult for a country that just put a $10 Billion super telescope into orbit to get to the bottom of how the universe was created? This could’ve been another sequence in the movie “Don’t Look Up”.
Can anyone including the kid Rav explain why violent knife crime in London is spiking, similar culture (without the same level of culture wars) similar demographics, economics and most importantly instead of defunding the police the conservatives have been refunding the police. If gun culture was a thing in the UK, there would be murder spikes? And yet there is this claim that a lack of policing has resulted in a crime wave. That doesn't seem to be consonant with the argument being made by American conservatives. I suspect the instinct will be to claim different country and culture, but the arguments being made are data driven, so that doesn't seem to be relevant at all. More policing has lead to more violent crime in a wealthy country whilst the argument in philly is less policing has had the same effect. I realize there is a temptation to navel gaze and only look at America but that seems problematic to me because whatever is happening transcends
Interesting idea about dispersal. Let me tell you something I know about that personally. I grew up in Chicago and lived most of my life a hundred miles south in Champaign, Illinois. 30 miles east of us is Danville, Illinois. Twenty-five years ago or so, Chicago closed down its remaining housing projects, which were almost exclusively black. They had been a disaster, and of course gangs ran rampant there. Many thousands of former residents moved elsewhere. Some of them moved to Vermilion County where Danville and some other smaller towns received new residents from the south side of Chicago with readymade gang affiliations. Crime skyrocketed. Chicago has lots of murders, but is not number one per capita in Illinois. Danville is. In fact, Danville is the eleventh most dangerous city in the country in violent crime.
Seems to me that we know precisely what worked to dramatically reduce violent crime rates starting in NYC in the early 90s (proactive data-based policing based upon “broken windows theory”, COMSTAT, “stop & frisk”, etc), which resulted in tens of thousands of actual black lives saved across America. Now that we’re abandoning those proven policing methods in deference to an ideology that suggests that violent predators are actually victims of oppressive social structures, and therefore aren’t culpable for their crimes, we’re reaping a fresh harvest of violence and evil disproportionately impacting the black community. What else is there to understand? Where is the outrage?!!
A good point, nicely set out by Mr Roscoe. I don’t know the full ins and outs of the Philadelphia picture - but I am absolutely convinced that no form of crime was ever reduced by making the consequences of that crime less deterring, and the investigation of it less thorough.
Once you cede ‘control’ of a neighbourhood, you inevitably sacrifice willing public interaction, no matter how much each individual resident might wish to see excessive behaviour reined in. Omerta always trumps civic duty, when there is a credible (even probable) likelihood of violent reprisal against anyone coming forward.
Putting politics aside (as if that were even momentarily possible), you can not send out a poorly motivated and frequently scapegoated Police force - undermined at the highest levels of Police, judicial and political institutions by those with random personal agendas - and expect them to make headway against huge entrenched criminal networks who are committed to playing for keeps.
Once in place, the momentum of such a crime surge can only ever be broken by a determined, united, resolute counter-push by ALL the supposed forces of order - thereby empowering the decent moral majority in those communities to come SAFELY into play, and also make their viewpoints heard.
I find the notion of reduced or less effective law enforcement to be the cause of a greater number of murders a confusion. Generally, people do not murder because of a lack of police presence. They murder for all sorts of reasons, usually status driven. People that don't murder have reasons, some more than others, some more adept at accessing those reason in the moment, why murder is a terrible awful idea. Law enforcement is extra help in stimulating that deterring thought for the more dim and/or violent. The best reason to not murder is because its a bad bad idea. That's it. Not complicated.
Law enforcement is a boundary. The boundary should have been strengthened. Christ, Ferguson was a media scam in itself, let alone an "effect". "This is such a typical confusion today seduced by sufficiently misdirecting the conversation, anchoring it somewhere in a nonsense debate.
BLM and other far-left Marxist or postmodern ideologies are what they are. Evil seductions fronting virtue, intimidating your image if self-virtue, to cover for criminal rights violations, particularly property rights. The interesting question is how do these soft to hard terrorist ideologies get any sympathy while barely if at all hiding their ugly roots? Why is finding inspiration in Mao not a red flag, no pun intended. Support for these thugs, or institutional groomings is no different than supporting the IRA or PLO, and I come from an Irish Catholic family.
Popper, Hayek, Darwin cures Foucault, Marx and Marcuse.
Every "justice system" reform I can think of has made it more difficult to apprehend, hold, try, convict and incarcerate people who commit crimes. It seems to me that these facts along with a lack of respect for the property rights of individuals and wide spread disrespect for law enforcement (and other forms of authority) is what is driving the increase in crime, violent and otherwise.
This is a small thing. The Black Lives Matter movement has a kitchen sink mentality. Black, Brown, and Trans lives all seem to matter in this movement. Are all of these “identities” on the same team? The tie between the black homicide rate and the intersectional feminist argument of the proverbial “trans women of color” is more related than one might first suppose. The list of names of the dead read every November 20th on the trans day of remembrance are almost exclusively black and brown names. It’s a fallacy to nitpick crimes, murder is murder, but there are those who have made it a cause to discuss this particular issue. Perhaps this demographic of gay women would be interested in the solutions presented by the black guys if the argument were presented in a certain way that zeroed in on the particular ideology they have chosen to follow. This is an argument for meeting people on their own terms. Though the trans women of color murder stats are a drop in the bucket of the overall issue, there is a chance to attract some flies with honey. This isn’t really in the realm of academia or research, but in way we talk about these arguments. Those who are not against us, are with us.
Philadelphia police have stopped pulling people fro traffic violations. Also not mentioned in your data is kit guns were stopped. These were ghost guns entering Philadelphia in Kit form. You can buy a gun kit without going through a background check, or registering the fire arm . There are thousands of these guns in Philadelphia. Some from Philly was buying the guns by the duffel bag full at gun shows in Oaks and Morgantown. Philadelphia has very strict gun laws but Krasner lets people go. Philadelphia wants gun laws to change in the entire state so Philadelphians don't kill themselves. That attitude is very selfish and one that shows people there have no self restraint, tolerance, empathy, and selfish.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/pennsylvania/articles/2021-03-15/ag-gun-show-promoter-to-bar-ghost-gun-assembly-kit-sales
As a police officer in a major metro area, I am enjoying this ongoing conversation, especially the balanced analysis. There are truly no easy answers. On the question of whether the DA is responsible for the spike: you noted the homicide captain’s quote about needing the community’s cooperation to solve homicides (implying that the black community is much less likely to cooperate), and argued that this effect cannot be linked to Krasner. Certainly the “no snitches” culture plays a part in this. However, in my experience, other than those in gangs (for whom snitching can be fatal), a community’s willingness to cooperate is far more strongly related to the level of trust in the justice system. A person who has cooperated with the police once, only to find their assailant/abuser released back on the street for whatever reason, is almost certain to not cooperate the next time. Why should they? We are asking them to take a great risk and then abusing that trust by not putting that dangerous criminal away. And the average citizen does not distinguish whether the person is back on the street due to ineffective investigation, low bail, weak prosecution, or a political catch-and-release policy.
In addition to the negative effects on citizen cooperation, these kind of effects are also devastating to the morale of officers, who sometimes put their lives and/or careers on the line to arrest dangerous suspects only to see them back out in the street. It’s a recipe for de-policing, which as we know does affect crime rates.
It is worth noting that Krasner got re-elected this spring with close to 70% of the vote and won a contested primary early by about the same margin. I can only conclude that the good voters of Philadelphia like and approve of his policies and the job he is doing. Or are indifferent to the murders because they do not affect most of them
When you talk about black on black murders, you are talking about gangs. When you talk about unsolved murders you are talking about gangs. When you talk about uncooperative witnesses you are talking about gangs. You can't talk about gangs without mentioning the word "gangs" on a regular basis.
The fact that we have to rely on The Washington Post or Mapping Police Violence for data on police violence now something like 8 years after Furgeson is unacceptable. Where is the US Dept of Justice? Why is there no hue and cry to get some factual information on an issue that is tearing the country apart? Why have no prominent Black politicians insisted on a Congressional investigation into whether or not racist police in this country are actually targeting and killing young black males? And to what specific scope does the problem exist? Does it happen rarely or regularly? Talk about an epistemological crisis! Why is getting to the bottom of this issue so difficult for a country that just put a $10 Billion super telescope into orbit to get to the bottom of how the universe was created? This could’ve been another sequence in the movie “Don’t Look Up”.
Interesting and informative commentary,as usual, but one question, are you referring to Congresswoman Omar?