"Why it matters: Violent crime arrests have dropped 39% in 2021 compared to 2019, which means violent crimes are going up but arrests are going down. Why?
What they're saying: "Arrests are down likely for a variety of reasons, some related to the pandemic and public health protocols, as well as the decrease in community trust in police as well as a general pulling back of proactive policing," Roseanna Ander, executive director of the UChicago Crime Lab, tells Axios. "
In terms of "Defund the Police", it was a euphemism for demoralize/abolish police and policing. And yes, some people clearly foresaw what the effects of that would be, especially that the heaviest price would likely be paid by poor people.
But there was also suspicious that if the rich felt threatened, they would respond by going Rio de Janeiro on us. Well, that moment has come in the ritzy parts of Los Angeles:
"High-Profile L.A. Crimes Spark Rush for Bullet-Proof Cars, Rolex Replicas and Safe Rooms......Security agencies say wealthy clients are increasing protective measures: "They want someone who knows how to get them out of any situation."
Rav, thank you for your writings and I hope that Dr. Loury will soon invite you to write more. You and Dr. Loury have been very kind in describing Mr. Robinson's contribution which at least one commenter had characterized as essentially trolling.
And speaking of things Philadelphia, this happened a few hours ago there (BTW, Mr. Robinson may say that calling attention to this is "cherry picking"):
"US Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon Carjacked At Gunpoint In FDR Park, Vehicle Recovered In Delaware, Police Say"
"A Larry Krasner Christmas: Happy holidays from Philadelphia’s criminals to a wedding party and even a U.S. Congresswoman." By The Editorial Board | Dec. 22, 2021
"On the unseasonably warm night of Dec. 10, a groom stepped outside of his wedding reception for a breath of fresh air. Two men saw him. One drew a handgun, and they demanded the groom’s Rolex watch. The robbery occurred downtown a short stroll away from the Liberty Bell. ...
"Philadelphia has seen a record 544 homicides so far this year, up from 347 in the entirety of 2019. Police have recorded some 1,785 nonfatal shootings this year. More than 84% of the victims of the gun violence in 2021 were black, according to the Philadelphia Office of the Controller.
"Police data also shows some 2,283 gun robberies as of Dec. 19, a 28.6% increase over the same period last year. Retail theft is up more than 20% this year, and auto theft more than 15%, ...
"Even as we were writing this, a report came over the wire that U.S. Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon was carjacked and robbed at gunpoint on Wednesday afternoon shortly after finishing a meeting at FDR Park in Philly. Ms. Scanlon was walking back to her car when she was approached by two armed men who demanded her car keys and personal belongings, according to a spokeswoman. She handed over her belongings, including personal and government cell phones—and the two men drove away in her 2017 Acura MDX."
Philadelphia has a bad attitude. The Philadelphia School District now allows students to become non-binary. (1) The goal is to make children feel safe. On November 30 2021 a "13-year-old shot after argument over scooter, witnesses say Police said Jefferson was shot 18 times throughout his body. The boy died at a local hospital a short time later. More than 500 homicides had been recorded in the city as of Monday, the highest number since at least 1990."(2)
Shot 18 times? That shows a lot of intentionality, anger, and hate. What Philadelphia needs is a not non-binary environment. It needs a way to identify kids that are at risk. I disagree with the Social Justice initiatives, but agree with PANORAMA SURVEYS in those cities to identify at risk kids and remove them from the environment they are in.
"It’s time that the reign of criminals who are destroying our city, it is time for it to come to an end,” Breed said. “And it comes to an end when we take the steps to be more aggressive with law enforcement … and less tolerant of all the bullsh*t that has destroyed our city.”
Chesa Boudin, SF's Larry Krasner, was not pleased.
"In my view, the key determinant behind Philadelphia's violence epidemic is de-policing in the wake of cascading anti-police protests in 2020". I suspect that Rav Arora is all or mostly correct, but my suspicion and Rav's view are not sufficient to draw conclusions. So I must agree with Nathan that the best way to judge the validity of Rav's supposition is to not only look at Philadelphia and specific things that happened there but to also look at other cities where the socio-economic conditions are similar but where the prosecutorial approach is different and to then compare the same crime statistics. In other words are all large cities seeing the same spikes in the same types of crime or is there something unique happening in The City of Brotherly Love?
Given the scope of what Rav has written, I think Nathan has gone well beyond "a serious and substantive critique". Rav isn't writing a PhD thesis here. He's writing a relatively short substack post that Glenn has supportively published. This is the kind of article that could appear in City Journal, the NY Post, the WSJ..................or The NY Times if one of their editors screw up and publish something non-lefty.
You know, when you’re a poet with an associates degree from a community college, people are just impressed that you can sound good. Imagine me saying I’m a serious poet who has worked closely with top tier talents in literacy. I went to school and had some conversations, nothing to brag about, that’s what school is for. Make the point. Make it in plain English. Tell an anecdote to make it relatable. Let the point be a shovel, pulling out credentials is digging with the hands. Pulling out an anecdote is asking a friend for help digging.
The response is confusing and imprecise. It furthers my conviction that the author is selecting data to tell a story consistent with conservative political ideology rather than trying to conduct an open-minded inquiry into the incredibly complicated questions about what actually causes crime.
I am told that I have misconstrued the argument because Arora "never claimed that the sole or even predominant cause of Philadelphia's record-breaking homicide wave is the D.A's de-prosecution efforts" and the "the key determinant behind Philadelphia's violence epidemic is de-policing in the wake of cascading anti-police protests in 2020." If I was misled, however, it was by the sentence "Law enforcement in the city is dangerously depleted, but even more concerning are the de-prosecution efforts led by Krasner" and the argument that Krasner's "prosecutorial approach continues to wreak havoc on the city." I am further confused by the fact that, while Arora now discusses a nationwide, non-Philadelphia-specific trend of de-policing as primarily responsible for the rise in homicides, he also presents a side-by-side chart showing a correlation between Krasner's rates of prosecution in Philadelphia and the homicide rate in order to illustrate "the dangers of Krasner's approach." What I am asking for is to see these two charts for cities other than Philadelphia, preferably some cities where numbers of prosecutions have not declined. If the rise in homicides is similar across cities regardless of whether they have seen overall numbers of prosecutions decline, then the charts would NOT necessarily illustrate "the dangers of Krasner's approach" at all. It could be that the difference being made by Krasner's reduction in prosecution relative to other (non-"progressive") prosecutors is actually negligible. I would like to know the answer to this question. If it is negligible, and can be reduced to one or two unrepresentative anecdotes (the reason I do not respond to the anecdotes is that in order to evaluate whether they are evidence for the theory I have to know whether they are typical or atypical and I do not have adequate information to assess this), then the BENEFITS of Krasner's policies (of which there are many, including the fact that punishing "drug dealers" is an injustice—I am a libertarian on drugs—and SHOULD be reduced) may well outweigh the costs.
I did not comment on the link between de-policing and homicides, which I am open to but even if true, would raise the question of who one things is responsible for that, a matter on which instincts will differ based on ideology. (I would argue that police themselves, through failing to curtail unjust brutality, are responsible for the loss of trust in their institution that has resulted in widespread national protests against them, and I would point not to the killing of George Floyd but the Justice Department's horrifying investigations of police departments around the country showing a large scale pattern of unpunished misconduct.) This is, however, a separate issue. I am asking for a serious and open-minded inquiry into the relative significance of Larry Krasner's policies, and what I have received here is what looks to me like backtracking (from de-prosecution is more concerning to de-policing is more concerning) followed by an attempt to have one's cake and eat it too by putting charts side by side showing a correlation between Larry Krasner's prosecutions and homicides.
I said I wasn't gonna comment, and have been doing almost none. But I'd repeat something I've "said" before now. IMHO, "social science" is an oxymoron. Just because You can put some numbers down, doesn't make it a science. And analyzing people in this way? Soon, we may be able to quantify what a person is. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-science-of-mind-reading
In case this is paywalled, I'd like to bring this to the attention of anyone that's interested:
"Some epileptic patients about to undergo surgery have intracranial probes put into their brains; researchers can now use these probes to help steer the patients’ neural patterns away from those associated with depression. With more fine-grained control, a mind could be driven wherever one liked. (The imagination reels at the possibilities, for both good and ill.)"
IMHO, doesn't take any imagination, does it now? Of COURSE it will be USED for good and ill. Likely dead before then, but still.
The main point? Summing up people is a very left-hemisphere activity. I don't see adequate solutions will come about unless the right hemisphere is put forward.
Things are pretty much the same here in Baltimore. It’s been home to my family for quite a few generations, I’m the last one here, though not for much longer.
For someone who constantly shouts about what a Serious Social Scientist he is, not much actual science and no citations other than from a media outlet are presented as refutations.
Demonizing or defunding police or police pulling back from their usual jobs and a general lack of respect for enforcing the law contributes to a climate in which more and more people push the boundaries of what they can get away with. And the more some people get away with crime, the more others are incentivized to give it a try themselves. Leading to a significant increase in crime because the inhibitions that most people have to committing a crime become reduced. If everybody is benefiting by grabbing stuff from stores without consequence, why shouldn't I participate also? I would be a fool not to. If you don't think anyone will bother trying to catch or prosecute you for shooting someone or if you perceive no one will stop someone else from shooting you, you are far more likely to pick up a gun yourself and do something you would not necessarily otherwise do. They call it the Thin Blue Line for a reason. Policing can be the difference between order and chaos. And a bunch of cities are seeing that now
That 300 figure should be revisited. The supporting article never claims that Philly had 6400 officers. 300 is a shortfall of potential officers.
I hope Nathan will cut the condescension - please.
And in Chicago:
"Why it matters: Violent crime arrests have dropped 39% in 2021 compared to 2019, which means violent crimes are going up but arrests are going down. Why?
What they're saying: "Arrests are down likely for a variety of reasons, some related to the pandemic and public health protocols, as well as the decrease in community trust in police as well as a general pulling back of proactive policing," Roseanna Ander, executive director of the UChicago Crime Lab, tells Axios. "
https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2021/12/21/violent-crime-arrests-way-down-2021
In terms of "Defund the Police", it was a euphemism for demoralize/abolish police and policing. And yes, some people clearly foresaw what the effects of that would be, especially that the heaviest price would likely be paid by poor people.
But there was also suspicious that if the rich felt threatened, they would respond by going Rio de Janeiro on us. Well, that moment has come in the ritzy parts of Los Angeles:
"High-Profile L.A. Crimes Spark Rush for Bullet-Proof Cars, Rolex Replicas and Safe Rooms......Security agencies say wealthy clients are increasing protective measures: "They want someone who knows how to get them out of any situation."
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/local-news/crimes-los-angeles-rush-for-bullet-proof-cars-rolex-replicas-safe-rooms-1235062227/?fbclid=IwAR0fMsE1yswPiSTxXDIttE42bCWSnEA7m_UP_vhzOMDiOIOCqHUAqRr-u3E
Rav, thank you for your writings and I hope that Dr. Loury will soon invite you to write more. You and Dr. Loury have been very kind in describing Mr. Robinson's contribution which at least one commenter had characterized as essentially trolling.
And speaking of things Philadelphia, this happened a few hours ago there (BTW, Mr. Robinson may say that calling attention to this is "cherry picking"):
"US Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon Carjacked At Gunpoint In FDR Park, Vehicle Recovered In Delaware, Police Say"
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2021/12/22/representative-mary-gay-scanlon-carjacked-gunpoint-fdr-park/
"A Larry Krasner Christmas: Happy holidays from Philadelphia’s criminals to a wedding party and even a U.S. Congresswoman." By The Editorial Board | Dec. 22, 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-larry-krasner-christmas-crime-philadelphia-11640208516
"On the unseasonably warm night of Dec. 10, a groom stepped outside of his wedding reception for a breath of fresh air. Two men saw him. One drew a handgun, and they demanded the groom’s Rolex watch. The robbery occurred downtown a short stroll away from the Liberty Bell. ...
"Philadelphia has seen a record 544 homicides so far this year, up from 347 in the entirety of 2019. Police have recorded some 1,785 nonfatal shootings this year. More than 84% of the victims of the gun violence in 2021 were black, according to the Philadelphia Office of the Controller.
"Police data also shows some 2,283 gun robberies as of Dec. 19, a 28.6% increase over the same period last year. Retail theft is up more than 20% this year, and auto theft more than 15%, ...
"Even as we were writing this, a report came over the wire that U.S. Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon was carjacked and robbed at gunpoint on Wednesday afternoon shortly after finishing a meeting at FDR Park in Philly. Ms. Scanlon was walking back to her car when she was approached by two armed men who demanded her car keys and personal belongings, according to a spokeswoman. She handed over her belongings, including personal and government cell phones—and the two men drove away in her 2017 Acura MDX."
Philadelphia has a bad attitude. The Philadelphia School District now allows students to become non-binary. (1) The goal is to make children feel safe. On November 30 2021 a "13-year-old shot after argument over scooter, witnesses say Police said Jefferson was shot 18 times throughout his body. The boy died at a local hospital a short time later. More than 500 homicides had been recorded in the city as of Monday, the highest number since at least 1990."(2)
Shot 18 times? That shows a lot of intentionality, anger, and hate. What Philadelphia needs is a not non-binary environment. It needs a way to identify kids that are at risk. I disagree with the Social Justice initiatives, but agree with PANORAMA SURVEYS in those cities to identify at risk kids and remove them from the environment they are in.
(1) https://6abc.com/philadelphia-school-district-non-binary-gender-identity-policy/11335669/
(2) https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/northeast/philadelphia-boy-shot-18-times-while-waiting-for-bus/
A few days ago, SF Mayor London Breed said this:
"It’s time that the reign of criminals who are destroying our city, it is time for it to come to an end,” Breed said. “And it comes to an end when we take the steps to be more aggressive with law enforcement … and less tolerant of all the bullsh*t that has destroyed our city.”
Chesa Boudin, SF's Larry Krasner, was not pleased.
"In my view, the key determinant behind Philadelphia's violence epidemic is de-policing in the wake of cascading anti-police protests in 2020". I suspect that Rav Arora is all or mostly correct, but my suspicion and Rav's view are not sufficient to draw conclusions. So I must agree with Nathan that the best way to judge the validity of Rav's supposition is to not only look at Philadelphia and specific things that happened there but to also look at other cities where the socio-economic conditions are similar but where the prosecutorial approach is different and to then compare the same crime statistics. In other words are all large cities seeing the same spikes in the same types of crime or is there something unique happening in The City of Brotherly Love?
Given the scope of what Rav has written, I think Nathan has gone well beyond "a serious and substantive critique". Rav isn't writing a PhD thesis here. He's writing a relatively short substack post that Glenn has supportively published. This is the kind of article that could appear in City Journal, the NY Post, the WSJ..................or The NY Times if one of their editors screw up and publish something non-lefty.
You know, when you’re a poet with an associates degree from a community college, people are just impressed that you can sound good. Imagine me saying I’m a serious poet who has worked closely with top tier talents in literacy. I went to school and had some conversations, nothing to brag about, that’s what school is for. Make the point. Make it in plain English. Tell an anecdote to make it relatable. Let the point be a shovel, pulling out credentials is digging with the hands. Pulling out an anecdote is asking a friend for help digging.
The response is confusing and imprecise. It furthers my conviction that the author is selecting data to tell a story consistent with conservative political ideology rather than trying to conduct an open-minded inquiry into the incredibly complicated questions about what actually causes crime.
I am told that I have misconstrued the argument because Arora "never claimed that the sole or even predominant cause of Philadelphia's record-breaking homicide wave is the D.A's de-prosecution efforts" and the "the key determinant behind Philadelphia's violence epidemic is de-policing in the wake of cascading anti-police protests in 2020." If I was misled, however, it was by the sentence "Law enforcement in the city is dangerously depleted, but even more concerning are the de-prosecution efforts led by Krasner" and the argument that Krasner's "prosecutorial approach continues to wreak havoc on the city." I am further confused by the fact that, while Arora now discusses a nationwide, non-Philadelphia-specific trend of de-policing as primarily responsible for the rise in homicides, he also presents a side-by-side chart showing a correlation between Krasner's rates of prosecution in Philadelphia and the homicide rate in order to illustrate "the dangers of Krasner's approach." What I am asking for is to see these two charts for cities other than Philadelphia, preferably some cities where numbers of prosecutions have not declined. If the rise in homicides is similar across cities regardless of whether they have seen overall numbers of prosecutions decline, then the charts would NOT necessarily illustrate "the dangers of Krasner's approach" at all. It could be that the difference being made by Krasner's reduction in prosecution relative to other (non-"progressive") prosecutors is actually negligible. I would like to know the answer to this question. If it is negligible, and can be reduced to one or two unrepresentative anecdotes (the reason I do not respond to the anecdotes is that in order to evaluate whether they are evidence for the theory I have to know whether they are typical or atypical and I do not have adequate information to assess this), then the BENEFITS of Krasner's policies (of which there are many, including the fact that punishing "drug dealers" is an injustice—I am a libertarian on drugs—and SHOULD be reduced) may well outweigh the costs.
I did not comment on the link between de-policing and homicides, which I am open to but even if true, would raise the question of who one things is responsible for that, a matter on which instincts will differ based on ideology. (I would argue that police themselves, through failing to curtail unjust brutality, are responsible for the loss of trust in their institution that has resulted in widespread national protests against them, and I would point not to the killing of George Floyd but the Justice Department's horrifying investigations of police departments around the country showing a large scale pattern of unpunished misconduct.) This is, however, a separate issue. I am asking for a serious and open-minded inquiry into the relative significance of Larry Krasner's policies, and what I have received here is what looks to me like backtracking (from de-prosecution is more concerning to de-policing is more concerning) followed by an attempt to have one's cake and eat it too by putting charts side by side showing a correlation between Larry Krasner's prosecutions and homicides.
I said I wasn't gonna comment, and have been doing almost none. But I'd repeat something I've "said" before now. IMHO, "social science" is an oxymoron. Just because You can put some numbers down, doesn't make it a science. And analyzing people in this way? Soon, we may be able to quantify what a person is. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-science-of-mind-reading
In case this is paywalled, I'd like to bring this to the attention of anyone that's interested:
"Some epileptic patients about to undergo surgery have intracranial probes put into their brains; researchers can now use these probes to help steer the patients’ neural patterns away from those associated with depression. With more fine-grained control, a mind could be driven wherever one liked. (The imagination reels at the possibilities, for both good and ill.)"
IMHO, doesn't take any imagination, does it now? Of COURSE it will be USED for good and ill. Likely dead before then, but still.
The main point? Summing up people is a very left-hemisphere activity. I don't see adequate solutions will come about unless the right hemisphere is put forward.
This the short version, less than a dollar: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18901042-the-divided-brain-and-the-search-for-meaning
Things are pretty much the same here in Baltimore. It’s been home to my family for quite a few generations, I’m the last one here, though not for much longer.
For someone who constantly shouts about what a Serious Social Scientist he is, not much actual science and no citations other than from a media outlet are presented as refutations.
Demonizing or defunding police or police pulling back from their usual jobs and a general lack of respect for enforcing the law contributes to a climate in which more and more people push the boundaries of what they can get away with. And the more some people get away with crime, the more others are incentivized to give it a try themselves. Leading to a significant increase in crime because the inhibitions that most people have to committing a crime become reduced. If everybody is benefiting by grabbing stuff from stores without consequence, why shouldn't I participate also? I would be a fool not to. If you don't think anyone will bother trying to catch or prosecute you for shooting someone or if you perceive no one will stop someone else from shooting you, you are far more likely to pick up a gun yourself and do something you would not necessarily otherwise do. They call it the Thin Blue Line for a reason. Policing can be the difference between order and chaos. And a bunch of cities are seeing that now